Shakeout
A subset breakout pattern Observed a subset of the vcp/breakout pattern that's worked for me a few times.
1. Stock needs to be in an uptrend. As in the 10sma, 20sma, 50sma are all stacked and rising.
2. Price forms a "hump"
3. A shakeout at the end of the hump. Shakeout candle at minimum goes below 20sma, but closes in green at eod.
4. Next day breakout with huge volume. Try and get in about 5%-6%, before it runs away.
Traded it a few times. Specifically BSE on 1st Dec 2021. Seems good for 4-5days swing trading. Also, the setup doesn't seem to occur too often. The hump-breakout occurs quite often, but this hump-shakeout-breakout doesn't. The shakeout I believe makes weak hands exit, so the reliability is probably better. So that's the edge. And, if this seems like a no brainer setup I apologize.
Federal-Mogul Goetze getting ready for a breakout FMGOETZE is forming an interesting pattern, this scrip has been trading around 375-350 for a log time now, looks like good accumulation has taken place in this area of interest. The scrip has also entered in a VCP structure with a good shakeout candle, looks like the scrip is all set for a 15-20% move from here on.
Stoploss 345
*DISCLAIMER*
This analysis is only for educational purpose. I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst/Advisor. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position and please use a Stop Loss for any Investments/Trading Positions. It is your hard earned money so give risk management your highest attention. Do take this disclaimer seriously.
BTCUSD Analysis- Shakeout or Pullback🤷♂️In the monthly chart, on the left-hand side, it can be observed that 2017 highs acted as a strong resistance. But once this level was taken out, it started acting as a support in 2022. Holding the very basic idea that a resistance once taken out, start acting as a support. You would observe this concept several times on this chart.
On the right-hand side, we can see a shift in structure from LL-LH to HL-HH formation near the above-mentioned levels (2017 highs). It was analyzed and explained in the following idea-
The resistance area of 25200 was broken out in March2023 and later tested twice in June and September2023. We can see a range creation between 31200 and 25200. The 25200 resistance now acted as a support and the range broke out in October2023.
It continued higher with a small area of consolidation in-between November, which finally broke out this month (December).
Currently we are facing a pullback from near 44700 to 40132 on this chart. The volume was high during this pullback but there is no follow through. This is indicating that this pullback could be just a shakeout.
⚡I would discuss three scenarios here for different type of traders:
-Overtly Bullish
-Moderately bullish
-Cautiously bullish
🚀Overtly Bullish- This is the most probable scenario at this point and is suitable for short term traders. Market will resume higher after the shakeout. There is a wholesale entry near 40000-40100 zone with stop below this zone. Targets could be 44500/48200 for short term.
🚀Moderately bullish- As per this scenario, we have stretched too far and expecting further pullback. This scenario is suitable for those who have intermediate term perspective. In this case 38000 (previous resistance) may act as support, so a bounce play could be an option from there. The stop would be below 38000 and target 44500 or higher.
🚀Cautiously bullish- This scenario is for those who are looking for longer term opportunities in the market. They would ignore entries near the higher prices and wait for deeper corrections. For them expect a break till 35000/33400 could be best where more buyers would show up in the October2023 breakout zone.
Which category do you belong to?
Write in the 💬section below.
Do boost🚀the idea if you think it was informative.
Regards.
Disclaimer: The levels discussed are for educational purpose only and not a trading or investment advice.
NELCAST LOOKS GOOD SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITY
Stock is in downtrend from Jan 2023 and forming triangular pattern, having major support near 85. It is corrected by nearly 30% from it's high. But now in last trading session it gives breakout of the triangular pattern with very high volumes which clearly indicates the reversal of the trend. Stock is taking support from its major moving averages.
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Secret breakout pattern.Please do not trade based on my opinions they are not set in stone. I just have high RR but poor accuracy and I am completely open about it. This is just me keeping log of the trade I took and not a trade recommendation. The previous swing high only gives me 1:5 RR which is not my ideal RR as I gun for 1:10. Let's see what happens when it hits target, I might trail SL to BE and let it ride till it goes 1:10.
Trade logic:
Market often probes for liquidity clusters and then gives a sharp momentum bursts that lasts for 3-5 days. You don't always have to buy a breakout after the break of upper range, sometimes failing to break the lower is just as good an entry point. The tradeoffs here are low accuracy in return of high risk-reward ratio + small holding period.
Please do not trade on the back of this just learn how to mark the levels, how an ideal entry point can be found and increase the RR of your trading system.
Happy Trading!😉
Break of support and bounce backs are the best and I strongly recommend you learn from them.
Follow me if you want learn how to trade with a different outlook. I have back tested indicators, trading systems that only rely on logic rather than traditional technical analysis.
Canara Bank - 7 mth VCPBUY GUIDANCE:
Never buy before 3PM (for positional trading). I have been burnt many times over. Try to buy between 3:15 - 3:30PM, later the better.
SL: Depending on your risk appetite: Below Weekly BO Candle / Below Daily BO Candle / 50% of Weekly BO candle / Below 20DMA
TGT: After a 10-15%+ vertical move, breakdown of 20DMA (on a daily close basis)
SELL GUIDANCE:
Selling in Profit:
Sell earlier in the session when the prices are higher, around 11AM.
Selling at SL:
Give your stock a chance to recover by end of session. If it doesn't recover, sell anywhere between 3:00 - 3:30PM.
Note: I reserve the right to be wrong.
DISCLAIMER:
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
momentum play11 week base - cup and handle
shakeout in the middle of base on weekly chart.
it changed character to bullish after breaking upper trendline.
then it gave pocket pivot on 20/11/20 off 50 MA which was also low cheat entry.
now it again gave continuation pocket pivot off 10 MA showing sign of strength.
Looking at 600 min and then even further
just pefect !9 weeks base.
cup and handle.
Pocket pivot formed with high volume off 50 DMA.
Shakeout in weekly and support on 200 DMA
High probability setup!11 week base which was broken today with pocket pivot on strong volume.
Promoters increased stakes 4% in last 2 quarters.
50 DMA is holding.
Gave some shakeouts in the base making it highly probable.
Shakeout + 4 to 8 weeks BreakoutBreakout post shakeout is very powerful, this one had two (highlighted in the image). Shakeout is when price falls, comes back up and closes almost equal or minutely in red in a week or one day. The Stock Broke out post that within 4 to 8 weeks ( which is important otherwise the stock is not in a strong uptrend) breaking all resistance on heavy volume.
Weak buyers exited the stock during these shakeouts, the stock didn't fall when the nifty (nse index) was -2% on 6 Jan because there was only smart/institutional money in the stock