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EURUSD Weekly Outlook: Selling the NWOG Liquidity Grab📊 EURUSD | H1 Timeframe | Week of May 12–16 Price is currently sitting inside the New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) at the 1.1780–1.1800 zone, which is acting as a significant resistance pocket. 🔍 My Bias: Bearish Here's what I'm watching: ⚡ Step 1 — Liquidity Grab at H1 Equal Lows (1.1730 zone) Price may dip to sweep the H1 equal lows before any continuation. Equal lows = liquidity magnet. 📉 Step 2 — Rejection into Daily FVG (~1.1720) After the sweep, I'm expecting a short-term bounce into the Daily Fair Value Gap before sellers step in aggressively. 🎯 Step 3 — Drop into Daily Low at 1.1650 The higher-timeframe target sits at the daily low around 1.1650, sitting right on the lower NWOG boundary — a clean institutional target. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: • Resistance: 1.1800 NWOG / 1.1790 daily high • H1 Equal Low: ~1.1730 (liquidity target) • Daily FVG: ~1.1720 • Daily Low target: 1.1650 • Extended target: 1.1640 NWOG low ⚠️ Invalidation: Clean break and hold above 1.1820 flips bias bullish. This is not financial advice. Do your own analysis. Drop a 🚀 if you're bearish this week — let's see where the community stands!
Short
by YCGH_Capital
2
USDCAD: H4 Bearish CRT Retracement PlayThe displacement already happened. Now the market is deciding whether this is reaccumulation… or redistribution. USDCAD printed a clear H4 Bearish CRT, shifting the short-term narrative and establishing a defined dealing range between the candle’s high and low. Right now, price is rotating lower after the impulse, and the focus shifts toward how it reacts around the equilibrium. Current framework: H4 Bearish CRT established Price expected to retrace toward the 50% equilibrium of the CRT candle Midpoint acting as key decision zone High and low of the CRT candle defining the active range My expectation: Price taps into the 50% level and attempts to find support. If buyers fail to defend equilibrium, then the probability increases for a continuation lower toward the low of the H4 CRT candle. That’s the important part: The midpoint reaction determines the next bias. Key idea: Strong displacement candles create ranges that institutions respect. The equilibrium becomes the battlefield. Most traders focus only on direction. But the real edge comes from watching how price behaves inside the range. Acceptance above equilibrium keeps recovery alive. Failure opens the door for another leg lower.
Long
by YCGH_Capital
2
Silver (XAG/USD) – Daily TF Technical OutlookSilver has delivered a strong bullish breakout after decisively reclaiming the 20 EMA, 50 EMA, and 100 EMA, indicating a shift back toward short-term bullish momentum. The breakout from the descending trendline/ascending triangle structure suggests buyers are regaining control after weeks of consolidation. Previously, prices successfully respected the 200 EMA as a dynamic support zone near the swing lows, which acted as the base for the current recovery rally. That bounce from the long-term moving average significantly strengthened bullish sentiment. The iFVG near 85-86 is acting as strong resistance. Although the fib extension zone between 0.618 & 0.50 might act as immediate support Overall, after a bearish consolidation, prices are expected to keep the bullish momentum
TVC:SILVERLong
by tanmay_agrawal
USDJPY: Failed Weekly Breakdown Setting Up Buy-Side ExpansionUSDJPY swept the previous week’s low inside NWOG territory but failed to close below it, creating a classic liquidity grab instead of true bearish acceptance. Daily price action echoed the same behavior, taking liquidity beneath lows before reclaiming the range. Current framework: Previous week’s low swept and reclaimed NWOG acting as discount support Daily bearish FVG still overhead H4 FVG below price acting as reaction zone H1 sell-side liquidity resting beneath current structure H1 equal highs and H4 highs acting as upside magnets My expectation: Price engineers one more move into nearby sell-side liquidity and the H4 FVG, forms support, then begins repricing higher. Why this matters: If sell-side liquidity gets cleared first, the path toward the H1 equal highs becomes much cleaner. And once those highs are taken, the market has room to expand toward the H4 highs above.
Long
by YCGH_Capital
XAUUSD H1: Institutional targets lower liquidity.XAUUSD H1: Institutional Order Flow Targets Lower Liquidity Gold remains heavily bearish on the H1 chart as a dynamic descending trendline continues to suppress price action. Following a recent Market Structure Shift (MSS) and a decisive Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, the market has left significant unmitigated supply above, keeping the focus strictly on further downside expansion. Fundamental & Institutional Backdrop The current order flow backdrop strongly favors a bearish distribution model. Aggressive breakdowns and the formation of large Fair Value Gaps (FVG) indicate heavy institutional selling pressure. The market is currently in a phase of engineering liquidity—trapping early retail buyers at minor support levels while leaving a trail of buy-stop liquidity above. This combination reduces the probability of a genuine trend reversal and keeps the asset highly vulnerable to continuation drops, especially while the premium supply zones remain completely unmitigated. Technical Structure on H1 The short-term structure is decisively weak and controlled by bears. Price is consistently printing lower highs and lower lows, heavily constrained by a descending trendline. The market recently tapped into the 4,519.549 Buy Zone Liquidity, where early buyers are attempting to catch a falling knife, creating a minor resting point but lacking any strong bullish displacement to suggest a shift in control. The immediate levels to watch on the upside are 4,565.584 and 4,583.426, marked as "Strong Liquidity." This area contains a cluster of equal highs and trendline liquidity, acting as a massive inducement target. The market is likely to sweep this area to hunt stop-losses before the next leg down. Above that, the ultimate Point of Interest (POI) is the 4,631.745 Sell Zone Order Block (OB). This area represents a premium supply cluster where the OB aligns perfectly with a massive unfilled FVG and the descending trendline, making it the most robust defensive barrier for sellers. What Order Flow is Suggesting Order flow strongly leans bearish across the H1 timeframe: price structure remains firmly capped below the descending trendline retail buy-side liquidity is actively building at the 4,519.549 support a corrective pullback is highly probable to sweep the strong liquidity at 4,565.584 – 4,583.426 the massive 4,631.745 Sell Zone OB remains unmitigated and acts as the primary institutional entry point This keeps the downside scenario dominant unless buyers can print a confirmed structural shift above the main OB. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1: Sweep liquidity into Sell Zone OB, then downside resumes If gold rebounds to sweep the strong liquidity pool (4,565.584 – 4,583.426) and taps into the Sell Zone OB at 4,631.745, sellers are expected to regain full control to drive the price down, aligning with the projected path. Entry: bearish rejection from 4,631.745 (Sell zone OB) SL: slightly above the OB zone (e.g., 4,635.000) TP1: 4,583.426 (First internal liquidity target) TP2: 4,565.584 TP3: 4,519.549 (Buy zone liquidity) Scenario 2: Breakdown below Buy zone liquidity (4,519.549) If price fails to pull back and instead drops to close decisively below the 4,519.549 Buy zone liquidity, gold will continue its aggressive expansion lower. Entry: confirmed break and close below 4,519.549 SL: above the most recent lower high (broken support) TP1: 4,500.000 (Psychological round number) TP2: 4,480.000 Scenario 3: Immediate rebound from Buy zone liquidity If gold sweeps lower first, tapping the 4,519.549 Buy zone liquidity with a strong bullish reaction, buyers may initiate the corrective pullback to hunt the upper liquidity. Entry: bullish confirmation from 4,519.549 SL: below the immediate sweep low TP1: 4,565.584 (Strong liquidity) TP2: 4,583.426 (Strong liquidity) TP3: 4,631.745 (Sell zone OB) Key Levels to Watch 4,631.745 → Primary Sell Zone OB / Major structural resistance 4,583.426 → Strong liquidity / Upper inducement target 4,565.584 → Intermediate liquidity / Trendline sweep target 4,519.549 → Buy zone liquidity / Immediate short-term support Conclusion Gold's H1 structure is heavily dictated by institutional sell programs. The market is currently engineering liquidity, trapping buyers at the 4,519.549 zone while leaving obvious inducement levels above. As long as price remains below the dynamic trendline and the critical 4,631.745 Order Block, the overarching order flow remains strictly bearish. For TradingTips members, maintaining a sell-on-rally approach into premium supply zones remains the highest probability strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD) - H6 TimeframeGOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (XAU/USD) – H6 TIMEFRAME Market Overview Gold is currently trading around $4,531, following a sharp correction from the recent peak near $5,350. Although short-term macro fundamentals such as a stronger US dollar, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions are weighing on gold, the current technical structure suggests early signs of constructive recovery. 1. Current Market Structure Medium-Term Trend Gold remains within a medium-term bearish trend, evidenced by: A descending trendline extending from the March high A sequence of lower highs However: Structural Shift Signals Price is beginning to form a higher-base consolidation zone after the sharp decline This indicates buyers are gradually absorbing selling pressure and defending support levels This may represent the early stages of a trend reversal or, at minimum, a sizeable technical rebound. 2. Liquidity Zone Analysis Buy-Side Liquidity The chart highlights a major buy-side liquidity area between: $4,650 – $4,720 This zone represents: A concentration of short-term highs Potential institutional liquidity accumulation before a bullish expansion Sell-Side Liquidity A notable sell-side liquidity pool sits lower around: $4,150 – $4,200 Should current support fail: This becomes the likely downside liquidity target for sellers 3. Key Resistance Levels Target 1: $4,727 First resistance level of the recovery structure Aligns with recent breakout / swing high zone A break above would signal a short-term bullish structural shift Target 2: $4,895 Strong medium-term resistance Historical reaction zone with multiple prior rejections Target 3: $5,048 Extended bullish objective Also coincides with retest of the broader descending trendline 4. Primary Technical Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Preferred) If price holds above the $4,450 – $4,500 support zone: Expectations: Consolidation completes Price rallies towards: $4,727 A confirmed breakout above this level opens upside to: $4,895 Extended target: $5,048 Confirmation Signals: H4/H6 candle closes above $4,727 with strong volume Break of the short-term descending trendline Bearish Scenario If price breaks below $4,450 support: Risks: Current consolidation structure invalidated Market likely seeks lower liquidity Downside Targets: $4,300 Then $4,150 – $4,200 5. Fundamental Overlay Despite improving technical signals, several macro factors continue to pressure gold: Key Headwinds: Persistent Inflation Reinforces expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates Tighter Monetary Policy Outlook Reduces appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold US Dollar Strength Makes gold less attractive globally US–Iran Tensions Supporting the USD’s safe-haven demand in the near term rather than gold 6. Overall Assessment Short-Term Bias: Neutral to Bullish Medium-Term Bias: Bearish Trend Intact, but Reversal Base Forming Trading Preference: Favour buying confirmed breakout strength rather than pre-emptive bottom-picking
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD H6: Gold Below 4600 – Market AwaitsXAUUSD H6: Gold Struggles Below 4600 – Market Awaits Direction Gold starts the week with a cautious tone as price continues to trade below the 4600 level, reflecting a market that is still under pressure but not yet ready to break down decisively. The current structure suggests a phase of re-accumulation or redistribution, where both buyers and sellers are testing control. This makes the upcoming sessions particularly important in defining the short-term direction. Fundamental backdrop From a macro perspective, gold is facing increasing headwinds. Major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, are shifting toward a more hawkish stance due to renewed concerns about inflation. The risk of energy-driven inflation, fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, is keeping markets cautious. Higher inflation expectations reduce the attractiveness of gold, as a non-yielding asset, especially when interest rates are expected to stay elevated for longer. This explains why gold is seeing selling pressure despite not collapsing — the market is adjusting, not panicking. Technical structure on H6 Looking at the H6 chart, gold is still trading within a corrective structure after a strong selloff. Price recently formed a reaction low and is attempting to build a higher low, but the structure remains incomplete as long as it stays below resistance. Key technical observations: Price is consolidating around 4600, a key psychological and structural level Market is forming a potential base, but lacks bullish confirmation Lower highs are still present, indicating sellers remain active The broader structure still points to a range-to-corrective phase, not a clear trend Above current price, a short-term supply zone is capping the upside, while below, a liquidity pocket remains open if support fails. Liquidity & structure perspective (ICT view) From an ICT perspective, the market is currently positioned between: Sellside liquidity above (previous highs / supply zones) Buyside liquidity below (recent lows / weak support) Price is likely to seek liquidity before committing to a directional move. This means: A push higher may occur to tap into liquidity above before reversing Or a sweep below current lows may happen first to collect liquidity before any meaningful rebound The current structure supports a two-sided market, where both scenarios remain valid until a key level breaks. Key levels to watch 4600 → pivot level (current price reaction zone) 4650 – 4700 → short-term resistance / supply 4800 → next upside objective if breakout confirms 4400 – 4450 → downside support / liquidity zone 5347 – 5416 → higher timeframe sellside liquidity (long-term target) Trading scenarios Bullish scenario – Recovery continuation If buyers manage to hold above current support and reclaim 4600 with strength, gold may continue building a higher low structure. A breakout above resistance could open the path toward 4800, where the next liquidity pool sits. → Confirmation needed: Strong bullish reaction Break and hold above resistance Shift in short-term structure Bearish scenario – Continuation of pressure If gold fails to hold above support and continues to reject below 4600, the current recovery attempt may fail. This would expose the downside toward 4400, where deeper liquidity sits. → Confirmation needed: Weak bounce / rejection from resistance Break of current support Continuation of lower highs Neutral scenario – Consolidation phase Gold may also continue to range between support and resistance, especially ahead of key macro events. This would create a choppy environment where liquidity is built on both sides before a larger move. Conclusion Gold is currently trading in a decision zone on the H6 timeframe. While price is holding above support, it remains capped below 4600, keeping the market in a fragile balance. The broader tone is still cautious, influenced by a more hawkish macro environment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. At this stage, the market is not trending — it is preparing. The next clear move will depend on whether price can reclaim resistance or break below support. Until then, this remains a reaction phase where patience and confirmation are key.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook: Gold above major demand level.XAUUSD Weekly Outlook: Gold holds above major demand as market balances between recovery and pressure Gold enters the new week on the Daily chart in a transitional phase, holding above a key demand zone while still trading beneath a heavy supply structure formed in the previous breakdown. The broader macro backdrop is softening safe-haven demand. Easing tensions around the Middle East, alongside signals of potential de-escalation between the US and Iran, have reduced immediate risk sentiment. That shift is also reflected across precious metals, where both gold and silver have seen reduced defensive inflows. But as always, the chart is leading the decision-making. Technical Structure From a higher timeframe perspective, gold remains inside a corrective structure after failing to sustain above the 5,100–5,160 supply zone. The rejection from that area triggered a strong downside move, which eventually found support near the 4,370–4,400 demand zone. Since then, price has been stabilizing and forming a short-term base, suggesting that sellers are losing some momentum at lower levels. However, the market has not yet shifted back into a bullish structure. Price is currently trading below the 4,800 supply / sell-side liquidity zone, which continues to cap any recovery attempts. This zone is critical. As long as gold remains below it, the broader structure stays corrective rather than trending higher. At the same time, the 4,370–4,400 area remains the foundation of the current market. It is the key level that buyers must defend to prevent a deeper continuation to the downside. So the structure is clear: price is holding above major support near 4,370–4,400 recovery attempts are capped below 4,800 higher timeframe remains corrective breakout is required for directional clarity Key Technical Levels Major Resistance: 4,780–4,800 This is the primary supply zone. A reclaim here is needed to confirm a stronger recovery phase. Upper Resistance: 5,100–5,160 This is the higher timeframe supply zone and long-term liquidity area. Major Support: 4,370–4,400 This is the strongest demand base on the chart. It defines whether the current structure can hold or break lower. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Hold support and reclaim 4,800 If buyers defend the 4,370–4,400 zone and push price back above 4,800, the market may transition into a broader recovery phase. In this case, gold could rotate toward the 5,100 resistance area. Scenario 2 – Continue consolidation below resistance Gold may remain trapped between 4,400 support and 4,800 resistance, forming a wider consolidation structure while the market waits for a stronger catalyst. Scenario 3 – Break below 4,370 If support fails, the structure weakens significantly and opens the door for a deeper downside continuation beyond the current range. Market Insight From my perspective, gold is currently sitting in a decision zone on the higher timeframe. The market is no longer in aggressive decline, but it has not yet reclaimed enough structure to confirm a bullish reversal. The balance between 4,400 support and 4,800 resistance will define the direction for the coming week. For now, the message is simple: hold support, and gold can continue building reclaim resistance, and recovery becomes credible lose the base, and downside pressure returns This is a market that requires patience. Direction will come from structure, not assumption.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD near 4,600 as gold consolidates.XAUUSD trades near 4,600 as gold compresses between liquidity resistance and deeper support structure Gold remains trapped in a compressed structure on the 6H chart, with price hovering near the 4,600 region while broader market pressure continues to build beneath a heavy resistance ceiling. The wider macro backdrop is still contributing to uncertainty across commodity-linked markets. Recent reports showing a sharp decline in overseas aluminum production, driven largely by output cuts in the Middle East, continue to reinforce concerns around supply disruption and industrial instability. While this is not a direct driver for gold alone, it adds to the broader defensive tone currently surrounding commodities and global risk sentiment. At this stage, however, the chart is leading the narrative. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, XAUUSD is trading inside a corrective range after failing to reclaim the upper resistance structure near 4,798. The market has been gradually compressing lower from the mid-April highs, creating a sequence of weaker rebounds and lower reactions across the short-term structure. What stands out now is the growing pressure between the upper liquidity zone and the deeper support base near 4,330. The current structure suggests that gold is attempting to stabilize around the mid-range, but buyers still lack confirmation. Every rebound attempt so far has struggled to break through resistance, which keeps the broader recovery structure incomplete. The 4,798 zone remains the primary upside barrier. If buyers manage to reclaim that area, the market could rebuild momentum and shift back toward a stronger recovery phase. On the downside, the most important structural support sits near 4,330, marked as the major buy-side demand zone on the chart. If price rotates lower into that region and fails to hold, the broader bearish continuation structure becomes significantly stronger. So the structure is relatively clear: price remains capped below 4,798 current movement still reflects corrective pressure 4,330 is the key support base holding broader structure reclaiming resistance improves recovery potential losing support would expose deeper downside continuation Key Technical Levels Immediate Resistance: 4,798 This is the main liquidity resistance zone. Buyers need to reclaim this area to improve the broader technical outlook. Mid-Range Structure: around 4,600 This is the current compression zone where price is attempting to stabilize. Major Support Zone: 4,330 This is the strongest support structure on the chart. It is the key demand area keeping the broader market from slipping into a deeper bearish phase. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Hold above current structure and reclaim 4,798 If buyers regain momentum and push back above resistance, gold may transition from corrective consolidation into a broader recovery phase. Scenario 2 – Continue ranging below resistance This is the ongoing compression scenario. Price may continue rotating between support and resistance while the market waits for stronger directional confirmation. Scenario 3 – Break lower toward 4,330 If downside pressure increases and current structure weakens further, gold may rotate into the deeper support base near 4,330. Scenario 4 – Lose 4,330 support This is the broader bearish continuation scenario. A failure at the major support zone would significantly weaken the higher-timeframe structure. Market Insight From my perspective, gold is still trading inside a corrective environment rather than a confirmed recovery trend. The key level remains 4,798 on the upside and 4,330 on the downside. Between those two zones, the market is still searching for direction. For now, gold is holding structure, but buyers still need confirmation before the recovery case becomes credible again.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
Gold Futures Recover as Buyers ReturnXAUUSD H2: Gold Futures Recover as Buyers Return Near Channel Support Gold is showing signs of recovery on the H2 chart after buyers stepped back into the market near the lower boundary of the descending channel. The latest rebound comes as both gold and silver futures in New York continue pushing higher in the short term, helping precious metals stabilize after the recent heavy selloff. With gold futures gaining around 1% intraday and silver futures also extending higher, short-term sentiment has started to improve. However, the market is still trading below important resistance zones, which means buyers still need confirmation before a stronger reversal can develop. Fundamental backdrop The rebound in precious metals reflects renewed short-term buying interest after aggressive downside pressure earlier in the week. Gold futures and silver futures both moved higher during the latest New York session, suggesting that traders are beginning to reposition around lower prices. This recovery tone is helping gold defend key support levels, especially after the market previously traded deep inside a bearish corrective structure. Still, despite the recovery attempt, the broader market remains sensitive to macro uncertainty and upcoming policy expectations. That means momentum can shift quickly if resistance levels continue holding. Technical structure on H2 The H2 chart still shows a broader bearish channel, but price is attempting to rebound from the lower edge of the structure. After the recent selloff, gold found support near the channel base and started rotating higher. The first important resistance now sits around 4609.093, which aligns with the current recovery zone marked on the chart. If buyers manage to reclaim and hold above this area, price may continue pushing toward the next resistance near 4649.835. This zone is important because it also aligns with the descending trendline resistance from the recent bearish structure. As long as gold remains below the upper trendline and the 4649 resistance area, the broader bearish pressure still technically remains active. However, a successful breakout above these levels could shift short-term momentum more clearly in favor of buyers. What order flow is suggesting Order flow currently suggests that sellers are losing short-term momentum near support, while buyers are attempting to build a recovery structure from the lows. Right now: price is rebounding from the lower channel boundary buyers are trying to reclaim 4609.093 4649.835 remains the key resistance barrier the broader trend remains cautious until resistance is broken This creates a potential transition phase where gold may either continue recovering or fail again below resistance. Trading scenarios Scenario 1: Buyers reclaim resistance and recovery extends If gold holds above current support and breaks through 4609.093, buyers may continue driving price toward higher resistance. Entry: confirmed breakout above 4609.093 SL: below recent recovery low TP1: 4649.835 TP2: upper channel resistance Scenario 2: Rejection below 4649 and sellers return If price fails near 4649.835 or the descending trendline, sellers may regain control and push gold lower again. Entry: bearish rejection near resistance SL: above resistance zone TP1: return toward 4600 TP2: lower channel support Scenario 3: Sideways consolidation before expansion Gold may also consolidate between 4609 and 4649 before choosing direction, especially after the strong recent volatility. Key levels to watch 4609.093 → first recovery resistance 4649.835 → major resistance zone descending trendline → bearish structure resistance channel support → current recovery base Conclusion Gold is attempting to recover on the H2 chart after reacting strongly from channel support, while rising gold and silver futures are helping improve short-term sentiment. Buyers are now trying to reclaim 4609.093, with 4649.835 becoming the next important test. For now, the rebound is constructive, but gold still needs to break key resistance levels before the market can confirm a stronger bullish reversal. Until then, this remains a recovery attempt inside a broader corrective structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
NIFTY intraday Short Setup (SMC Concept)(please check caption for smaller timeframe view) We can observe a clear sequence of lower lows forming on the intraday chart, signaling sustained bearish momentum. From the smaller timeframe POI (Point of Interest) marked, price is likely to retrace into that zone before resuming its downward move. This level aligns with structural confluence and offers the best probability for a powerful rejection and continuation to the downside.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Ankushkokane
XAU/USD – Gold Under PressureXAU/USD – Gold Remains Under Pressure as Bears Defend Key Structure Ahead of Fed Analysis by Lana Gold continues to struggle in its attempt to regain bullish momentum, with price action showing repeated rejection from recovery zones as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Despite several short-term rebounds, the precious metal has yet to establish any meaningful bullish structure, suggesting that the broader market remains defensive. From a macro perspective, uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook has significantly reduced aggressive positioning across the market. Traders appear reluctant to commit heavily in either direction before receiving further guidance on the interest rate path and broader economic projections. This hesitation is contributing to the current lack of upside conviction in gold. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran is reinforcing demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. While gold would traditionally benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, the market’s preference for USD liquidity in the current environment is capping bullion’s upside and adding another layer of pressure to XAU/USD. Technical Structure Overview From a technical standpoint, the 3-hour chart continues to favour the bearish case. Price remains firmly contained within a descending channel, a structure that has guided lower highs and lower lows throughout the recent decline. This pattern reflects persistent seller dominance and indicates that the market has not yet found sufficient demand to reverse trend. Following the recent sell-side liquidity sweep, price printed only a modest rebound—an indication that buyers were unable to capitalise on the liquidity grab with strong continuation. Instead, the bounce appears corrective in nature, lacking the impulsiveness typically associated with true reversals. More importantly, price is now approaching a major supply/resistance confluence zone between 4,608 and 4,649, which aligns with: Previous structural breakdown area Supply imbalance/inefficiency Mid-channel resistance Potential institutional re-entry zone for sellers This region represents the most important short-term battlefield on the chart. Bearish Scenario Remains Favoured As long as XAU/USD trades below the 4,608 – 4,649 resistance cluster, the dominant expectation remains for another rejection. Primary Bearish Setup: Retracement into supply → Rejection from resistance → Continuation lower A clean rejection from this area would likely confirm seller presence and open the path for price to revisit the recent lows, with potential extension toward deeper liquidity resting beneath the descending channel. What Would Invalidate the Bearish Bias? While bears remain in control for now, it is important to remain adaptable. The bearish outlook would begin to weaken if: Price breaks decisively above 4,649 Buyers reclaim the descending channel structure Market establishes higher highs/higher lows on lower timeframes Without those confirmations, bullish scenarios remain speculative. Market Psychology & Positioning Current price action suggests that institutions may be allowing price to retrace into premium zones before reloading short exposure. This type of corrective movement within a broader downtrend is common before continuation, particularly ahead of high-impact macro events such as FOMC/Fed decisions. Rather than chasing price at current levels, disciplined traders may find greater edge in allowing the market to come into predefined areas of interest and waiting for confirmation. Lana’s Final View At this stage, the chart remains technically bearish and fundamentally restrained. Gold is struggling to attract sustained buying interest, while sellers continue to defend structure with confidence. Until buyers can reclaim key resistance and invalidate the descending channel, the higher-probability approach remains to treat rallies as selling opportunities rather than signs of reversal. With the Fed decision approaching, volatility is expected to increase sharply—making patience and precision more important than ever. Lana’s Note: The best trades often come not from predicting every move, but from waiting patiently for price to return to where the odds are clearly in your favour.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD | Gold Testing Key Support – BuyingXAUUSD | Gold Testing Key Support – Bullish Continuation Still in Play? Gold remains resilient despite short-term corrective pressure, supported by steady physical demand as Indian gold prices edged higher again on Wednesday. From a technical perspective, XAUUSD is currently trading within a well-defined corrective descending structure after its recent impulsive rally — suggesting the market may be preparing for the next expansion phase rather than a full reversal. Technical Outlook Price is now approaching a critical support/demand region around 4560–4580, an area where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. This zone aligns with: Local liquidity resting below recent lows Descending channel support Prior intraday demand imbalance Bullish Scenario A liquidity sweep below support followed by strong reclamation would provide confirmation that smart money is absorbing sell-side pressure. Upside objectives if support holds: 4700 – Initial resistance 4780 – Mid-range supply 4900+ – Expansion target/breakout continuation Invalidation A decisive breakdown and close below 4540 would weaken the bullish structure and open room for deeper retracement. Analyst Bias Bullish above demand. Current pullback appears corrective unless sellers produce structural breakdown. In trending markets, corrections create opportunity — not panic. Are bulls preparing for the next leg higher, or is a deeper retracement coming first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD slides to buy-side base as goldXAUUSD slips toward the buying side base as gold trades under descending resistance on the 3H chart Gold is starting the session with a softer tone on the 3H chart, as price continues to trade below the descending trendline while gradually rotating back toward the 4,500–4,530 buying side support zone. The broader backdrop remains slightly heavier as physical gold prices in India also moved lower, reflecting weaker short-term sentiment in the metal. That does not control the chart on its own, but it does align with what price action is already showing: momentum has slowed, recovery has lost some strength, and gold is now testing whether buyers can still defend structure from lower support. At this stage, the chart matters more than the headline. And the chart is showing a market drifting lower inside a still-corrective structure. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, XAUUSD remains capped by a descending resistance line that has been controlling the broader recovery attempts from mid-April. Price has already failed to reclaim the upper 4,834–4,845 selling side band, and that rejection has kept the market from shifting into a stronger recovery phase. Since then, gold has started to lean lower again, with price now moving back toward the 4,500–4,530 buying side zone. This area is important because it is the nearest structural base on the chart. If buyers defend it well, gold may stabilize and attempt another rebound into resistance. If not, the current recovery structure weakens further and the market risks extending the correction. The key point here is that gold is not breaking down aggressively yet, but it is also not trading with enough strength to challenge the upper resistance zone again without first proving demand at support. Above price, the 4,834–4,845 area remains the first resistance layer that matters. If gold rebounds from support and reclaims that zone, the broader upside path toward the 5,000 buying side liquidity area becomes more credible. So the structure is relatively clear: price is still trading below descending resistance the upper 4,834–4,845 zone remains the main recovery barrier the 4,500–4,530 area is now the key support base holding that support keeps rebound potential alive losing it would weaken the recovery structure further This keeps gold in a cautious phase. The market still has support beneath it, but it has not yet shown enough strength to regain control. Key Technical Levels Near Support: 4,500–4,530 This is the immediate buying side zone on the chart. It is the main support base that buyers need to defend to keep the recovery structure intact. Trendline Resistance: descending cap above price This is the dynamic resistance controlling the current structure. As long as gold stays below it, upside remains limited. Selling Side Resistance Zone: 4,834–4,845 This is the first major resistance area. A clean reclaim here would improve the short-term outlook and strengthen the rebound case. Buying Side Liquidity Zone: 5,000 area This remains the broader upside objective if gold can recover through resistance and rebuild momentum. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Hold 4,500–4,530 and rebound This is the stabilization scenario. If buyers defend the current support zone, gold may attempt a new recovery leg from the base. In that case, the market would likely rotate back toward the descending resistance and then the 4,834–4,845 area. Scenario 2 – Reclaim 4,834–4,845 This is the stronger recovery scenario. If gold rebounds and pushes back above the selling side band, the chart starts to shift away from corrective weakness and back toward broader upside continuation. That would bring the 5,000 liquidity zone back into focus. Scenario 3 – Lose 4,500–4,530 This is the weakening structure scenario. If support fails with clear downside acceptance, the current recovery view becomes less credible. That would suggest the market is no longer stabilizing, but slipping into a deeper corrective leg. Market Insight From my perspective, gold is still trading inside a recovery structure, but that structure is under pressure. The most important area right now is 4,500–4,530. As long as that zone holds, buyers still have a valid base to work from. But the market will only look stronger again if it can reclaim the descending resistance and push back through 4,834–4,845. For now, this is a chart that still has upside potential, but it needs support to hold first. Without that, the recovery starts to lose credibility.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD H6: Gold awaits breakout this weekXAUUSD H6: Gold Waits for a Breakout Week Gold is starting the week in a more constructive position on the H6 chart, supported by improving sentiment as hopes around US-Iran peace talks weigh on the US Dollar. At the same time, softer oil prices are easing inflation concerns and slightly reducing pressure for a more aggressive Fed path, which is giving gold room to stabilize ahead of the next key catalyst. Still, with FOMC risk approaching and price stuck inside a defined range, this remains a market that requires patience rather than early conviction. Fundamental backdrop The current macro tone offers short-term support for gold. A softer Dollar environment, helped by optimism around geopolitical negotiations, is reducing part of the pressure that had previously weighed on precious metals. Lower oil prices are also helping calm inflation expectations, which may limit the urgency for a more hawkish Fed stance. That said, this support is not yet strong enough to confirm a full bullish breakout. With the market waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting, gold may continue trading inside its current range until a stronger catalyst arrives. Technical structure on H6 The H6 structure is shifting into a consolidation phase with a slight bullish recovery tone. Price is currently moving sideways between 4694.610 support and the 4800–4853.400 resistance region. This range has become the key battlefield for the week. Buyers have managed to defend the lower area, while sellers are still capping price near the upper band. The rising internal channel from the late-March recovery is still intact, which tells us the rebound structure has not fully broken down. However, the market has also struggled to clear the highlighted resistance zone around 4853.400, which keeps gold trapped in a wait-and-see phase. Above that, the major upside draw remains the sell-side liquidity zone near 5200, but that scenario only becomes relevant if buyers can first break and hold above the current ceiling. On the downside, 4498.428 remains the deeper buy-side liquidity zone, while 4128.863 is the broader weekly support if the market loses its current recovery structure. What order flow is suggesting Order flow currently suggests hesitation, not commitment. Buyers are still defending the lower range. Price is holding above the rising recovery structure. Sellers remain active below 4853.400. The market is likely to stay range-bound until FOMC or another major catalyst forces expansion. This keeps both sides in play, but for now the chart still slightly favors a recovery attempt as long as support continues to hold. Trading scenarios Scenario 1: Gold holds support and breaks higher If price continues to hold above 4694.610 and reclaims 4853.400 with acceptance, gold may extend higher toward the next liquidity target. Entry: confirmed break above 4853.400 SL: below the reclaimed resistance zone TP1: 5000 TP2: 5200 sell-side liquidity This is the bullish continuation scenario if buyers finally push the market out of consolidation. Scenario 2: Sideways trading continues before FOMC If gold keeps holding above support but cannot break 4853.400, price may remain trapped in a short-term range. Entry: only on clear confirmation at range extremes SL: outside the range TP: opposite side of the range / intraday reaction levels This is the most balanced scenario while the market waits for fresh direction. Scenario 3: Support breaks and gold rotates lower If price loses 4694.610 decisively, the recovery structure may weaken and open the way toward deeper support. Entry: confirmed break below 4694.610 SL: above broken support TP1: 4498.428 TP2: 4128.863 This would signal that buyers have lost control of the current rebound leg. Key levels to watch 4853.400 → key resistance / breakout trigger 4800 area → upper range pressure zone 4726.995 → current market pivot 4694.610 → key support 4498.428 → buy-side liquidity 5200 → major upside liquidity zone Conclusion Gold begins the week with a mildly constructive tone, supported by a softer Dollar backdrop and easing inflation pressure, but the H6 chart still shows a market trapped inside a defined range ahead of FOMC. As long as 4694.610 holds, buyers still have a chance to challenge 4853.400 and push higher toward 5000 and potentially 5200. For now, though, this is still a breakout market, not a trend market. The key for this week is whether gold can finally clear resistance, or whether the current sideways structure turns into another delayed rejection.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD above 4,670, gold targets 4,740, 4,770.XAUUSD holds above 4,670 as gold targets 4,740 and 4,770 this week Gold starts the week with a firmer technical tone after regaining balance above the 4,670 support area on the 3H chart. The early break in lower-timeframe structure has already been tested, and for now, price is showing that buyers are still willing to defend the near-term floor rather than surrender it. That makes this week less about chasing momentum and more about whether gold can keep building above support without losing structure again. At this stage, the chart matters more than the noise. And the chart is showing a market that is trying to transition from short-term stabilization into a more constructive recovery leg. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, gold has already reacted positively after testing the 4,670 support zone, which is now the key level holding the current bullish intraday structure together. That area matters because it acts as the immediate base for the latest rebound attempt. As long as price remains above it, the market still has room to rotate higher and challenge the next resistance layers. Once a support level is tested and respected after a structure break, the focus usually shifts to whether price can extend cleanly into the next supply zone. In this case, the first level that matters is 4,740, followed by 4,770 if momentum continues to build. The broader 3H chart also shows that gold is still trading under a descending resistance line from the previous swing structure. That means the market is improving in the short term, but it is not yet in full breakout territory. Buyers are gaining traction, but they still need to prove they can push through resistance instead of simply bouncing inside a wider corrective range. Above that, the chart highlights a larger buy-side liquidity zone around the 5,000 region. That is not the immediate target for the start of the week, but it remains the broader upside reference if gold can continue holding its current base and build through the intermediate resistance layers first. So the structure is currently clear: 4,670 is the key short-term support 4,740 is the first resistance test 4,770 is the next upside layer if momentum expands holding above support keeps the bullish intraday structure alive losing 4,670 weakens the current recovery view and forces a reassessment of direction This keeps gold constructive for the start of the week, but still dependent on confirmation. Key Technical Levels Support: 4,670 This is the most important short-term floor on the chart. As long as price holds above it, the rebound structure remains valid. First Resistance: 4,740 This is the first upside checkpoint. A clean push into this area would confirm that buyers are extending control from the current base. Second Resistance: 4,770 If gold clears the first resistance zone, this becomes the next level where price may pause, consolidate, or face fresh reaction. Broader Liquidity Zone: 5,000 area This is the higher-timeframe upside reference shown on the chart. It remains relevant only if the current bullish structure continues to develop through the week. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Hold above 4,670 and push into 4,740 This is the preferred opening scenario for the week. If buyers continue defending 4,670, gold may extend higher into the first resistance area near 4,740. That would confirm that the recent support retest has held and that the market is still building upward from the current base. Scenario 2 – Consolidate around 4,740 before extending to 4,770 This is the constructive continuation scenario. Gold may reach 4,740, pause, and then build sideways before attempting the next move higher into 4,770. That would fit a healthy market structure where momentum expands in stages rather than in one straight move. Scenario 3 – Fail back below 4,670 This is the invalidation scenario. If price loses 4,670 with clear downside acceptance, the current recovery structure weakens materially. That would suggest the recent upside is no longer holding and that the market may need to reset into a new short-term directional phase. Market Insight From my perspective, 4,670 is the line that defines the week. As long as gold holds above that support, the structure still favors a push toward 4,740 first, and potentially 4,770 if buyers maintain momentum. But this is still a market trading inside a broader technical framework, not a fully confirmed breakout. That is why support matters more than excitement here. For now, gold is holding structure well enough to keep the upside path active, but the recovery remains valid only while 4,670 continues to hold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD 15M | Liquidity HuntingEqual highs sitting clean above. Retail sees resistance. Smart money sees targets. Price is drifting lower… but not out of weakness. This is engineered pullback, not bearish intent. Current move = inducement phase Internal lows getting built Shorts getting comfortable Liquidity quietly stacking below Next step? Sweep sell-side → shift → expansion 4,685–4,690 → discount / reload zone 4,740 → external liquidity (real target) Two paths: Clean tap → immediate expansion (aggressive delivery) Deeper sweep → imbalance fill → expansion (manipulation first) This is classic: Trap the shorts → raid liquidity → reverse hard If you’re short here, you’re likely exit liquidity. Short-term: sell-side sweep Then: bullish displacement Target: equal highs / BSL
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by YCGH_Capital
XAUUSD H6: Weekly structure bears below.XAUUSD H6: Weekly Structure Turns Heavy Below Resistance Gold is ending the week in a vulnerable position on the H6 chart, with price failing to build above the current resistance band and showing signs of renewed weakness inside a broader descending structure. After several recovery attempts through April, the market is now pressing back into a key sell confirmation zone, which keeps the weekly tone defensive heading into the next sessions. Weekly overview From a broader perspective, gold is still trading inside a large descending channel, with the market repeatedly respecting the upper boundary as dynamic resistance. This tells us that, despite short-term rebounds, the bigger structure has not shifted into a true bullish recovery yet. This week’s price action reinforces that view. Gold attempted to stabilize after the previous rebound from the lower part of the channel, but the latest push higher lost momentum beneath a strong resistance area. Instead of continuation, price has started to stall and rotate lower again, suggesting that buyers are still struggling to regain higher ground on the H6 timeframe. That keeps the market in a position where rallies are being treated as corrective unless proven otherwise. Technical structure on H6 The H6 chart continues to show a heavy structure. Price is now trading around a key resistance and confirmation sell area near the 4700–4750 region, where the market has already started to lose momentum. This zone is important because it sits below the descending higher-timeframe trendline and aligns with the idea that sellers are still defending the upper side of the current recovery. The chart also highlights a strong resistance level near 4894.739, which remains the broader cap on any larger upside attempt. As long as gold stays below that level, the higher-timeframe bearish structure remains valid. What stands out here is the failure to expand after the recent recovery leg. Instead of building continuation, price is compressing under resistance. In this type of structure, compression below resistance often increases the probability of another downside leg, especially when the broader channel is still pointing lower. What order flow is suggesting Order flow on H6 still favors the sell side: price remains capped below the descending channel resistance the recent recovery has turned slow and corrective the highlighted area on the chart is acting as a sell confirmation zone buyers have not shown enough displacement to invalidate the weekly bearish pressure This suggests the market may be preparing for another downside rotation rather than an immediate breakout higher. Trading scenarios for the week ahead Scenario 1: Rejection from current resistance, then downside expands If gold continues to reject the current 4700–4750 resistance band, sellers may extend the move lower in line with the broader descending channel. Entry: bearish rejection from current resistance zone SL: above the recent swing high TP1: 4600 TP2: 4300 TP3: 3800 zone near the lower channel boundary This is the primary scenario while price remains under higher-timeframe resistance. Scenario 2: Short-term rebound first, then selloff resumes If gold rebounds slightly from current levels but still fails to break and hold above 4750 and especially below 4894.739, the move may remain a corrective pullback before sellers return. Entry: failure pattern after rebound into resistance SL: above invalidation zone TP1: return to current base TP2: 4600 TP3: lower channel support This would still fit the broader bearish weekly structure. Scenario 3: Break above resistance and structure starts to shift If buyers manage to reclaim the current resistance band and then push decisively above 4894.739, the bearish weekly tone would begin to weaken. Entry: confirmed close above resistance SL: below reclaimed zone TP1: next internal high TP2: follow-through dependent on momentum For now, this is the less likely scenario unless price shows clear displacement and acceptance above the upper resistance. Key levels to watch 4700–4750 → current sell confirmation zone 4894.739 → strong higher-timeframe resistance 4600 → first downside support 4300 → lower support inside the channel 3800 area → major downside projection near channel support Conclusion Gold closes the week with a heavy tone on the H6 chart, still trapped below major resistance and inside a broader descending channel. The recent rebound has not been strong enough to shift structure, and the current price behavior continues to support the idea of a sell-on-strength environment. As long as gold remains below the highlighted resistance zone and especially under 4894.739, the weekly outlook stays cautious and favors downside continuation. For next week, the key question is not whether price can bounce, but whether buyers can break the pattern of weak recoveries that has defined the market so far.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD near 4,709 on H12 as goldXAUUSD holds around 4,709 on H12 as gold enters a decisive weekly structure zone Gold is closing the week in a technically important position on the 12-hour chart, with price stabilizing around 4,709 after recovering from the sharp selloff seen in late March. What stands out on this timeframe is that gold is no longer trading in a clean impulsive move. Instead, it is now sitting inside a broader structural decision zone, where the market is testing whether the recent rebound is strong enough to continue higher, or only a temporary retracement inside a larger corrective trend. For the weekly view, this matters. The chart is no longer asking whether gold can bounce. It is asking whether gold can reclaim structure. Technical Structure On the H12 chart, price is currently reacting around the 0.5 retracement zone near 4,680–4,710, which is acting as the immediate pivot area for the new week. This zone is important because it sits in the middle of the recent recovery structure and also aligns with a horizontal reaction band that price has already respected several times. As long as gold continues to hold around this area, the rebound remains technically alive. But the structure is still incomplete because price is trading below the broader descending trendline drawn from the February–March highs. That descending trendline remains one of the most important references on the chart. It continues to define the upper pressure line of the broader correction, and until price can break and hold above it, gold is still technically trading under larger-frame resistance. Above current price, the first major upside zone comes in near 5,150–5,180, which is marked as the upper supply area around the 0.236 retracement region. That is the zone buyers would need to reclaim to confirm that the current rebound is evolving into a broader structural recovery. Below current price, the support base starts around 4,400–4,250, where the market may try to rebuild if weakness returns. Under that, the chart projects a much deeper downside extension toward the 3,650 target area, which is the broader bearish objective if the current rebound fails and the weekly structure turns lower again. So from a structural perspective, the message is clear: gold is holding above the mid-retracement pivot near 4,700 price is still trading below the higher-timeframe descending trendline reclaiming 5,150–5,180 would strengthen the bullish recovery case losing the current support structure could reopen downside into 4,400, and potentially 3,650 later on This keeps the H12 chart balanced, but only on the surface. Underneath that balance, the market is still trading inside a larger corrective framework. Key Technical Levels Immediate Pivot Zone: 4,680–4,710 This is the main short-term structure level on H12. As long as price holds around this area, the rebound remains active into the new week. Trendline Resistance: around 4,950–5,050 This descending trendline is still capping the broader recovery structure. It remains the main dynamic resistance on the chart. Major Recovery Zone: 5,150–5,180 This is the main upside supply area. A clean break into this zone would suggest that buyers are regaining control on the higher timeframe. Support Zone: 4,400–4,250 This is the deeper structural floor if current price loses the mid-range support. It is the first major downside area where the market may attempt to stabilize again. Broader Bearish Target: 3,650 This is the deeper downside projection on the chart if the correction expands and the higher-timeframe rebound fully fails. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Hold 4,680–4,710 and build toward trendline resistance This is the constructive weekly scenario. If gold continues to hold above the current pivot zone, price may keep building upward and challenge the descending trendline again. That would keep the rebound structure intact and shift focus toward the 5,150–5,180 recovery zone. Scenario 2 – Break trendline resistance and reclaim 5,150–5,180 This is the stronger recovery scenario. If buyers manage to break above the trendline and push firmly into the upper supply zone, the chart would start to shift from corrective rebound into broader structural recovery. That would be the first real sign that the larger downtrend pressure is fading. Scenario 3 – Lose 4,680 and rotate back toward 4,400–4,250 This is the weak-structure scenario. If the current pivot area fails, the rebound starts to lose credibility. In that case, gold may slide back into the deeper support zone, where buyers would need to defend structure again. Scenario 4 – Fail at support and reopen the 3,650 downside path This is the broader bearish scenario. If the deeper support base cannot hold, the H12 structure opens the way for a much larger corrective extension. In that case, the 3,650 zone becomes the next major downside objective on the chart. Market Insight From a weekly perspective, gold is not in a confirmed bullish continuation. It is in a retest phase inside a larger corrective structure. That is why the 4,680–4,710 area matters so much going into the new week. As long as price remains above it, the rebound still has room to extend. But the larger structure will not truly improve unless buyers can challenge and reclaim the descending trendline, followed by the 5,150–5,180 resistance zone. For now, the H12 chart suggests that gold still has recovery potential, but it is not yet free from broader downside risk. The market is holding structure, but it still needs confirmation before that recovery can be trusted on a weekly basis.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD: H4 rebound, but weekly bearish.XAUUSD: H4 technical rebound, but weekly downside pressure is not over yet Gold is recovering as hopes of renewed Iran negotiations help keep risk sentiment relatively supported. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar are also providing short-term support for gold prices. However, from Kelly’s perspective, the current move on the H4 timeframe still looks more like a technical recovery within a broader bearish structure than a confirmed shift into a sustainable bullish trend for the week ahead. Technical structure on H4 On the H4 chart, gold is reacting around the 4,650–4,700 area, which is an important support zone and also a key decision point for the short-term structure. After the sharp decline seen earlier, price has managed to rebound, but so far the move has not been strong enough to break decisively through the descending resistance line above. What stands out is that gold is still trading inside a broader descending channel, while the current rebound has only lifted price back into a technical reaction area rather than genuinely restoring bullish trend structure. That suggests buying interest is present, but not yet strong enough to change the weekly picture. Key H4 levels to watch: 4,650–4,680: near-term support and current reaction zone 4,800–4,950: upper resistance area and supply zone 3,450: deeper liquidity zone if downside pressure returns strongly Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure still fits the idea that gold is trading in a wave 4 corrective rebound following the previous strong decline. If that count remains valid, then the current recovery would be corrective in nature before the market attempts a wave 5 decline to complete the broader structure. This reading also aligns well with the chart itself: price is rebounding, but it remains below the major descending resistance area, and there is still no decisive breakout strong enough to invalidate the bearish count. For Kelly, that matters, because a genuine bullish reversal would usually require price to reclaim resistance and hold above it with acceptance. At the moment, gold is still only rebounding within overhead pressure. Fibonacci and liquidity structure From a Fibonacci perspective, the chart still leaves room for an extension towards the 1.618 area, which overlaps with the deeper liquidity zone near 3,450. Although that is not necessarily an immediate short-term target, it does suggest that the larger bearish structure may not yet be fully complete. On the other side, the current support zone around 4,650 is still acting as a temporary holding area. If this zone continues to hold, gold may be able to extend its technical rebound into the early part of next week. But if that area gives way, downside pressure could expand more quickly. What matters for the week ahead From a broader weekly perspective, gold is currently being pulled by two opposing forces. On one hand, expectations around possible renewed Iran negotiations, together with a weaker US Dollar and lower US yields, are supporting the short-term rebound. On the other hand, traders remain cautious because previous rounds of negotiations have failed before, which means uncertainty has not disappeared. For Kelly, that means headlines may be supporting the rebound, but the H4 structure and the broader weekly structure still do not confirm a bullish reversal. If gold can hold above the 4,650–4,680 zone, the rebound may extend towards 4,800 and possibly even the higher resistance region near 4,950. If price loses the current support area instead, the wave 5 bearish scenario would become more convincing and the market could return to a broader downside path during the remainder of the week. Kelly’s view For Kelly, this is not yet a chart strong enough to call a bullish reversal on H4. The current recovery has support from headlines and short-term flow, but structurally gold is still trading inside a defensive pattern with major resistance still overhead. As long as price cannot break above and hold beyond the key H4 resistance zone, the preferred read remains the same: gold is still in a technical rebound within a broader bearish structure, and the final downside wave may not be finished yet. Conclusion In the short term, gold is being supported by a weaker US Dollar, softer Treasury yields, and hopes of renewed Iran negotiations. That is helping price recover on the H4 chart and defend the important 4,650–4,680 support zone. However, from a broader weekly technical perspective, gold has not yet broken out of its larger bearish framework. In Elliott Wave terms, the current move still fits better as a wave 4 correction, while the risk of a wave 5 decline remains in place if upper resistance continues to hold. The rebound is real. But to change the weekly trend, gold still needs more than a technical bounce on H4.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
XAUUSD drops below 4,683 as gold declines.XAUUSD breaks below 4,683 as gold loses short-term support and shifts focus toward the Fibonacci demand zone Gold is trading with a weaker tone on the 2H chart as price slips below the 4,683 support area and starts leaning more clearly into a bearish corrective structure. The broader backdrop is also adding pressure. Spot gold prices in India moved lower into Friday, reflecting a softer tone in the metal overall. That does not define the chart by itself, but it does support what price action is already showing: momentum has cooled, support is being tested, and the market is no longer trading from a position of short-term strength. At this stage, the chart matters more than the headline. And the chart is showing a structure that is starting to lose balance. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, XAUUSD has now moved back under the 4,683 zone, which was acting as an important short-term support layer. Once price starts trading below a level like this after repeated pressure from above, the structure usually shifts from neutral compression into downside continuation risk. The rising trendline that supported the earlier recovery phase has also come under pressure. Price is no longer holding cleanly above that structure, which tells us buyers are losing control of the rebound that built through the first half of the month. This matters because once trendline support and horizontal support begin to weaken together, the market often rotates into the next deeper demand area rather than immediately recovering. That next area is the 4,585 Fibonacci buy zone, which stands out as the first major downside support on the chart. This zone is important because it is the first place where the market may attempt to stabilise after losing the current floor. If gold finds demand there, the decline may slow into consolidation. If not, the structure opens room for a deeper extension lower. On the upside, the 4,800 area remains the key recovery ceiling. That zone marks the broader sell-side cap and also defines the level buyers would need to reclaim before any stronger recovery case starts to rebuild. So the structure is now quite clear: price has slipped below 4,683 the rebound trendline is weakening the next major downside focus sits near 4,585 recovery remains limited while price stays below 4,800 This keeps gold in a vulnerable phase. The market has not yet reached full downside acceleration, but the chart is increasingly favouring bearish continuation unless support can be rebuilt quickly. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 4,800 This is the main recovery barrier on the chart. Gold needs a strong reclaim above this zone before the broader structure can shift back toward recovery. Broken Support / Near Resistance: 4,683 This area was acting as short-term support and has now been lost. If price stays below it, the market remains under downside pressure and any rebound may struggle to gain traction. Fibonacci Buy Zone: 4,585 This is the first major downside demand area. It is the most important retracement zone on the chart if current weakness continues. Lower Extension Area: below 4,585 If the Fibonacci support fails to hold, the chart opens room for a broader downside continuation beyond the current correction. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Reclaim 4,683 and stabilise above it If buyers manage to recover 4,683 and hold above that area, the immediate downside pressure starts to ease. That would suggest the breakdown is not yet fully accepted and the market may return to short-term consolidation. Scenario 2 – Stay below 4,683 and rotate into 4,585 This is the bearish continuation scenario. If price remains capped below former support, gold may continue sliding toward the 4,585 Fibonacci buy zone, where the next meaningful reaction may appear. Scenario 3 – Hold 4,585 and attempt a rebound If the Fibonacci demand zone attracts fresh buying interest, the market may stabilise and attempt a technical rebound. Even then, recovery would still need to deal with 4,683 first before any stronger upside case can form. Scenario 4 – Break below 4,585 If sellers gain clear acceptance below the Fibonacci support zone, the correction becomes deeper and the broader downside structure opens further. Market Insight Gold is no longer trading like a market in healthy recovery. It is trading like a market that has lost a key support layer and is now drifting toward deeper retracement support. From my perspective, 4,683 is now the level that defines short-term weakness. As long as price remains below it, the structure stays under pressure. The next area that matters is 4,585, where the market will need to prove whether buyers still have enough strength to rebuild. On the upside, 4,800 remains the level that would need to be reclaimed before the bearish tone starts to fade. For now, the breakdown below support makes the downside case more credible while price continues to trade beneath the former structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
XAUUSD H1: Pressure increases under resistance.XAUUSD H1: Pressure Builds Below Resistance Gold remains under pressure on the H1 chart after failing to recover above the 4755–4760 sell liquidity zone. Thursday’s fresh supply tone, combined with renewed pressure on the US Dollar from Hormuz-related risk and persistent inflation concerns, is keeping the market focused on a less dovish Fed path, which continues to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold. Fundamental backdrop The current macro backdrop still favors a cautious bearish view on gold. Geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping market volatility elevated, while inflation concerns are pushing expectations toward a firmer Fed stance rather than an easier one. That combination reduces the room for gold to build a clean upside recovery and keeps price vulnerable to deeper pullbacks, especially while technical resistance remains intact. Technical structure on H1 The short-term structure remains weak. Price is still trading below the 4755–4760 sell liquidity zone, which continues to cap any recovery attempt. The recent bounce from the lows has been modest and corrective, with no strong bullish displacement yet to suggest that buyers have regained control. The immediate level to watch is 4669.127, which is acting as the current downside pivot. As long as price stays around or below this support line, the market remains exposed to another sweep lower. Below that, the next key area is the broader 4600 sell-side liquidity zone, marked on the chart as the main reaction region. This is the area where gold may look for a stronger short-term base if sellers continue pressing lower first. On the upside, 4755–4760 remains the first resistance that buyers would need to reclaim to shift the short-term tone, while 4827.788 is still the larger OB resistance and the broader invalidation level for the bearish structure. What order flow is suggesting Order flow still leans bearish in the short term: price remains capped below 4755–4760 current rebound strength is limited liquidity below 4669.127 remains exposed the market may still be drawn toward the 4600 support shelf before any stronger recovery develops This keeps the downside scenario active unless buyers can reclaim resistance with stronger momentum. Trading scenarios Scenario 1: Rebound into resistance, then downside resumes If gold rebounds into 4755–4760 but fails to break above it, sellers may continue controlling the structure. Entry: bearish rejection from 4755–4760 SL: above the local high TP1: 4700 TP2: 4669.127 TP3: 4600 Scenario 2: Breakdown below 4669.127 If price closes decisively below 4669.127, gold may extend lower into the 4600 sell-side liquidity zone. Entry: confirmed break below 4669.127 SL: above broken support TP1: 4630 TP2: 4600 Scenario 3: Sweep 4600, then rebound If gold trades lower first and taps the 4600 liquidity zone with a clear reaction, buyers may attempt a corrective recovery. Entry: bullish confirmation from 4600 SL: below the sweep low TP1: 4669.127 TP2: 4700 TP3: 4755–4760 Key levels to watch 4755–4760 → sell liquidity resistance 4700 → intraday recovery pivot 4669.127 → key short-term support 4600 → sell-side liquidity / reaction zone 4827.788 → major OB resistance Conclusion Gold still looks vulnerable on the H1 chart while trading below the 4755–4760 resistance zone. The current macro backdrop, with inflation concerns and a less dovish Fed narrative, continues to support bearish pressure in the short term. As long as buyers fail to reclaim resistance, the market may remain exposed to a deeper move toward 4669.127 and potentially the 4600 liquidity zone below.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
EURUSD – Sell Side Delivery Loading…Price has tapped into a 4H/1D supply (premium zone) after a clean displacement from the lows, forming a classic buy-side liquidity draw → mitigation → distribution setup. The recent push up looks like nothing more than a retracement into inefficiency (FVG + OB confluence) rather than genuine bullish intent. Read the tape, not the candles: Buy-side liquidity resting above recent highs has been engineered ✔️ Price delivered into supply / bearish order block ✔️ Structure still printing lower highs on HTF ✔️ As long as the daily high remains intact, the narrative stays simple: 👉 This is a sell in premium, not a buy in hope. Expectation: Short-term choppiness or a minor inducement higher to trap late buyers, followed by aggressive sell-side expansion targeting: Internal liquidity first Then external range lows / equal lows Final draw: discount zone imbalance fill Invalidation: Clean break and acceptance above the marked daily high → narrative shifts, no ego trades. Execution mindset: Don’t chase the move. Let price confirm displacement from supply, then ride the delivery.
Short
by YCGH_Capital