Supply and Demand
RELIANCE divergence in Monthly TFThere is a divergence in monthly TF. Nothing can be predicted for RELIANCE. Anything can happen. But as per the charts, there is a divergence which is not good for new investments as old/big investors will offload their shares. Even the candle formation is outside the upper bollinger band which suggest the price may retrace down.
Stuck Between "A Rock & A Hard Place"Bharat Forge is a good example of several stocks in the Nifty 500 right now. The stock is stuck between former support that's been intact for nearly 6 years (355) and former resistance that's been intact for nearly 15 years (200).
As a market participant, it's difficult to bet on this type of stock longer-term in either direction as long as prices are between these two levels.
As a fresh short or someone liquidating longs, you don't want to be placing orders near 200 because the market's telling you there's still underlying demand there.
As a fresh long or someone liquidating shorts, you don't want to be placing orders near 355 because the market's telling you there's still overhead supply there.
As a result, you have this range develop that neither longs nor shorts want to bet against breaking. Why would anyone want to be the one to force it in either direction when the market punishes you for doing so?
People who are trading the range are being rewarded with gains, while those betting against it continuing are punished with losses.
And thus the range continues.
And it will continue until a large buyer or seller, an institution, puts enough supply or demand on the market to break the range. Once that happens, the positive feedback loop that's been in place will be broken and a new behavioral trend will manifest itself in the market.
So what's the best course of action for someone with a timeframe of several weeks to several months, or longer?
Wait. Let the institutions who set the trends show their hands and then we can position ourselves to ride along to profits with them.
In the meantime, trade the range if you'd like, but until prices break decisively in either direction and begin trending, there's no reason for us to be betting aggressively.
This is how we approach rangebound stocks for our timeframe, which looks out several weeks to months (or longer).
Bank Nifty Tested It's Major Supply Zone...
Today Bank Nifty tested its Short term Major Supply zone @ 21350-21750. This same Supply Zone is there on a daily and weekly chart.
On the downside, there is a minor support @ 20500 and demand zone @ 19700-19800.
I will plan my trade if Bank Nifty will sustain above 21350.
Nifty closed in the Supply Zone.Which will be the next Zone ?
Nifty closed in the supply zone of 9490-9580. On the downside demand zone @ 9230-9250.
Today as I have mentioned in the telgram group that I am not expecting nifty closing below 9490. The reason is: 9490-9580 is a supply zone on a daily chart and 9490-9735 is a supply zone on a weekly chart. So 9490 is a very crucial level in a higher time frame. I am expecting a weekly candle close in 9490-9735.
If Nifty will manage to sustain above 9500 then it may face 1st resistance @ 9580. Once It will sustain above this level than on the hourly and daily chart next major supply zone @ 9990-10090 but it will face one more resistance @ 9735 range which is an upper level of supply zone on the weekly chart.
From the last few days I was in favor of taking a position in option writing instead of FUT because Nifty strength was missing and I was not able to find decent technical stop loss (not logical stop loss). But today I have seen good strength in Nifty so I may trade in FUT instead of Option writing.