Support and Resistance
BPCL– Wave B Nearing Resistance, Wave 2 Correction Still in PlayBack on August 20, I highlighted that BPCL had completed a 5-wave advance from 234.01 to 358.65 , marking higher degree Wave 1, and that a corrective Wave 2 was in progress. (Earlier technical analysis write-up is attached here: )
At that time, only Wave (a) of the correction was visible. Since then, price action has unfolded further:
Wave B is now rising into a strong resistance cluster near 350–358.
Unless price decisively breaks above 358.65 , the move remains corrective.
A final Wave C decline into the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone (296–281) remains the higher probability path.
Momentum check: The RSI is pushing higher alongside Wave B, but if momentum stalls here, it would confirm the setup for a downward leg.
Key Levels:
Resistance / Stop: 358.65
Retracement Zone: 296 – 281
Summary: The corrective roadmap outlined in August is still intact. With Wave B nearing exhaustion, focus now shifts to a potential Wave C decline toward 296–281, before the larger bullish structure resumes with Wave 3.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
JSW Steel powers through bullish channel with momentumTopic Statement:
JSW Steel is on a relentless bullish run, steadily climbing within a strong up-trending channel that continues to attract accumulation.
Key Points:
1. The stock is moving consistently in a strong bullish channel, making directional trading highly structured and reliable
2. It rarely dips below the 50-day EMA, and when it does, it presents a strong investment or accumulation opportunity
3. The clearly defined channel makes it ideal for disciplined channel-based trading strategies
(XAU/USD) – Gold likely to touch $4,000/oz: Ideal buying levels?1. Market Structure & Trend Outlook
On the H1 chart, gold is sustaining its bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows.
After the BoS (Break of Structure), price retraced near 3,862 Buy Zone and bounced upward.
At present, price trades above EMA34 and EMA89, keeping bullish bias intact.
2. Important Levels
Buy Zone: 3,862 – 3,865. Acts as short-term support. Holding above strengthens the bullish case.
OB1: 3,806 – 3,810. Next support in case Buy Zone breaks.
OB2: 3,763 – 3,770. Deeper support, triggered only if market corrects heavily.
Sell Scalping Zone (Fibo): 3,912. A short-term resistance, profit booking expected.
Sell Zone / ATH: 3,933 – 3,935. Breakout here may lead to fresh record highs.
3. Trade Setups
Bullish Setup: Buy on retest of 3,862 – 3,865.
SL: Below 3,850.
TP1: 3,912.
TP2: 3,933 – 3,935.
Bearish Setup (Defensive): If below 3,860, expect test of 3,806 – 3,810.
If this fails, price may decline towards 3,763 – 3,770.
4. Conclusion
Trend remains positive on H1. Best strategy: Buy on dips near support, manage SLs carefully, and book partial profits near resistances. Sustaining above 3,933 may open doors for new highs.
XAUUSUS | Government Shutdown Confirmed | Gold awaits ADP & ISM🔎 Context & News
US Politics : The US government officially shut down after the Senate failed to pass the federal funding bill. A major political risk catalyst, triggering safe-haven flows into Gold.
FED : Probability of a -25bps rate cut in October rises to 96.2% → almost certain.
Key Events Today (ET / UTC) :
• ADP Employment Change: 08:15 ET / 12:15 UTC
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 10:00 ET / 14:00 UTC
→ Both will be crucial data points that may shake Dollar and Gold.
📌 Summary : US politics + FED easing = Gold remains supported, but ADP & ISM tonight could spark strong volatility in the US session.
📈 Technical Analysis (H1)
Main Trend : Bullish after multiple BoS.
EMA : EMA 34 > EMA 89 → bullish momentum intact.
Resistance :
3,897 – 3,907 (Sell scalp – Fibo 0.5–0.618).
3,920 – 3,921 (Liquidity / ATH test).
Support :
3,872 – 3,876 (old high retest).
3,833 – 3,841 (OB zone).
3,814 – 3,822 (deep Support Zone – losing this shifts bias).
🎯 Trade Plan
✅ Buy (trend priority)
Buy Zone 1 : 3,872 – 3,876
• SL: 3,869
• TP: 3,897 → 3,907 → 3,920
Buy Zone 2 (OB) : 3,833 – 3,841
• SL: 3,826
• TP: 3,872 → 3,897 → 3,907
Buy Zone 3 (Deep Support) : 3,814 – 3,822
• SL: 3,808
• TP: 3,841 → 3,872 → 3,897
⚡ Sell (short scalps only – lower RR)
Sell Zone 1 : 3,897 – 3,907
• SL: 3,912
• TP: 3,885 → 3,876 → 3,841
Sell Zone 2 (ATH sweep) : 3,920 – 3,921
• SL: 3,925
• TP: 3,907 → 3,885 → 3,876
📝 Conclusion
Gold remains strongly supported by the US government shutdown + FED rate cut expectations.
Strategy today: Prioritize Buy at support; Sell only for short scalps around 3,907 – 3,921.
⚠️ Watch out: ADP & ISM tonight may trigger unexpected volatility → manage risk carefully and move SL to BE after TP1.
📢 If you find this Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow Captain Vincent ⚓ for the latest updates.
💬 What do you think, crew? Will Gold break ATH 3,920 right after ADP & ISM tonight?
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 01st October 2025NSE:NIFTY
Index has resistance near 24775 – 24825 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 24975 – 25025 range.
Nifty has immediate support near 24475 – 24425 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 24275 – 24225 range.
Market will react to the RBI MPC outcome, specially on FY 2025-26 economic outlook, inflation etc data.
Banknifty Intraday Analysis for 01st October 2025NSE:BANKNIFTY
Index has resistance near 55050 – 55150 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 55550– 55650 range.
Banknifty has immediate support near 54250 - 54150 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 53750 - 53650 range.
Market will react to the RBI MPC outcome, specially on FY 2025-26 economic outlook, inflation etc data.
Finnifty Intraday Analysis for 01st October 2025NSE:CNXFINANCE
Index has resistance near 26200 - 26250 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 26450 - 26500 range.
Finnifty has immediate support near 25875 – 25825 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 25650 – 25600 range.
Market will react to the RBI MPC outcome, specially on FY 2025-26 economic outlook, inflation etc data.
Midnifty Intraday Analysis for 01st October 2025NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
Index has immediate resistance near 12725 – 12750 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach 12875 – 12900 range.
Midnifty has immediate support near 12475 – 12450 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 12325 – 12300 range.
Market will react to the RBI MPC outcome, specially on FY 2025-26 economic outlook, inflation etc data.
Sensex - Expiry day analysis Oct 1For the past two days, the price has been moving within the range of 80200 to 80800. And today's movement has formed a triangle pattern. Unless the range is broken, the movement can be choppy. Nearby support is seen at 80000. If 80k is broken, the next support is at the 79750 to 79820 zone.
Buy above 80320 with a stop-loss of 80200 for targets of 80400, 80520, 80640, 80760, and 80880.
Sell below 79960 with a stop-loss of 80100 for the targets 79840, 79760, 79640, 79520, 79400, and 79240.
If the price does not gain strength, we can expect a range move between 80k and 80700.
US Government Shutdown, Gold Benefits & FOMO BUY Continues📊 Market Context The gold market kicks off Q4/2025 with great enthusiasm as safe-haven flows continue to surge.
Not only that, the potential delay of the NFP employment report this week further fuels the market's "thirst" for directional information, positioning gold as the central asset in everyone's sights. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure from political uncertainties and expectations that the Fed is moving closer to further rate cuts.
Combined, the current picture shows that gold is not only maintaining its strength after a breakout rally but also has the opportunity to expand and conquer new high price territories, as safe-haven capital and FOMO momentum from the BUY side continue to amplify.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
The price maintains the main upward trend, staying above the support structure.
Important BUY ZONE: 3833–3831 (Fibo + CP zone) – this area is likely to react strongly.
Secondary BUY ZONE: 3817–3815 (OBS zone) – stronger support, suitable for accumulating additional BUY orders.
Resistance area 3919–3923 (Liquidity Sell Zone) may be where liquidity traps appear.
✅ BUY ZONE 1: 3833–3831
SL: 3827
TP: 3838 - 3842 - 3846 - 3850 - 3855 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ BUY ZONE 2: 3817–3815
SL: 3810
TP: 3822 - 3826 - 3830 - 3835 - 3840 - 3850 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ Summary Gold is directly benefiting from political instability and the delay in US economic data. The main trend remains BUY with safe-haven flows, with strategic zones at 3833–3831 and 3817–3815. The expansion target aims for 3870–3880 and beyond to 3920+ if buying momentum remains strong.
Double Top at the Peak: Is a Bearish Reversal Coming in HDFC AMCHDFC AMC has given a good upside rally of 65% and is form a double top pattern.
The stock is following a bullish trendline but the RSI divergence is creating a bearish sentiment supported by the drop India VIX.
If the stock breaks below the trendline, a bearish trade can be entered with the first target of 5440 following it to 5208.
Bullishness will only be confirmed only once the stock starts trading above 6000 levels.
There is RSI divergence on the higher time frame too and gives more convincing trade in the stock.
Entry :- Below 5809
Target :- 5440 and 5208
Stop Loss :- Close above 5927 (daily charts)
Wait for the price action and trade accordingly.
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:NIFTY
Index has resistance near 24800 – 24850 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 25000 – 25050 range.
Nifty has immediate support near 24500 – 24450 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 24300 – 24250 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Banknifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:BANKNIFTY
Index has resistance near 54900 – 55000 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 55400– 55500 range.
Banknifty has immediate support near 54100 - 54000 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 53600 - 53500 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Finnifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:CNXFINANCE
Index has resistance near 26200 - 26250 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 26450 - 26500 range.
Finnifty has immediate support near 25825 – 25775 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 25575 – 25525 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Midnifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
Index has immediate resistance near 12750 – 12775 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach 12900 – 12925 range.
Midnifty has immediate support near 12475 – 12450 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 12325 – 12300 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Gold 30/09 - Safe-haven flows surge | Gold sails toward new ATH 🟡 XAU/USD – 30/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
US Politics : Meeting between Trump and bipartisan leaders ended without agreement → growing risk of a US government shutdown by Wednesday.
Conflict : Democrats demand concessions, Republicans fiercely oppose → wide gap remains, both sides blaming each other.
Market : Investors watch JOLTS data and speeches from 3 FED members, but political risks are the strongest catalyst for Gold.
Trend : Safe-haven flows keep pouring into Gold → increasing likelihood of testing new ATH.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : US political seas are stormy, Gold becomes the fortress of safety. The voyage toward ATH is widening.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H1)
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) > EMA 89 (red) → bullish trend clearly dominant.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Big Volume Dock: 3,827
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
ATH test: 3,916 – 3,917
Market Structure : Gold broke out strongly, now trading around 3,870. Main trend remains bullish, with 3,842 – 3,827 as key anchor zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (main priority)
Buy Zone 2 – Big Volume
Entry: 3,827 – 3,824
SL: 3,815
TP: 3,870 – 3,899 – 3,916
⚡ Sell (short scalp – high risk)
Sell Zone – ATH test
Entry: 3,917 – 3,920
SL: 3,925
TP: 3,899 – 3,870 – 3,856
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are filled by safe-haven winds, pushing the ship close to ATH. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,842 – 3,827) is the ideal dock for sailors to position Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,916 – 3,920) may unleash violent waves, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. If the political storm from Washington breaks out, Gold’s voyage could surpass the peak and expand its horizon.”
📢 If you find the Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the earliest updates.
💬 What’s your view, crew? Will Gold conquer ATH around 3,917 this week?
H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend
H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained.
Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs.
EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones
Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821
Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779
OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765
OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724
Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority)
Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779)
Entry: 3,792 – 3,779
SL: 3,765
TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+
Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765)
Entry: 3,772 – 3,765
SL: 3,758 (below 3,765)
TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821
Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724)
Entry: 3,731 – 3,724
SL: 3,714
TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only)
Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821)
Entry: 3,818 – 3,821
SL: 3,828
TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792
Breakdown Short (conditional)
Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724
SL: 3,735
TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”






















