BankNifty (Alternate) - Do not Sell Until 50939 BreachedWaveTalks - Market Whispers! Can You Hear Them?
Disclaimer:
This is not a solicitation to buy or sell. Please consult your financial advisor
Follow-Up on the Previous Idea
Our last suggestion to sell BankNifty below 51404 was spot on, as we witnessed a 200-250 point drop during the session. However, I expressed concern that the decline didn’t seem convincing, suggesting that new highs could still be possible as long as 50939, our critical level, remains intact.
Recent Developments
On 29th August 2024, the index opened near 51000, reaching a precise low of 51028, which we marked as Wave C. Holding 50939 was critical, as suggested at 11:12 am in the last Bank Nifty Idea. Following this, we saw one push towards recent highs, reaching 51369, which we marked as Wave D. Currently, we are observing a sharp fall in Wave E, which is still unfolding.
Last Idea - BankNifty - Is This an Ending Diagonal
What to Expect Next
Holding 50939:
If BankNifty manages to hold above 50939, expect the bulls to regain control, potentially driving the index beyond 51404, with new highs on the horizon.
Breaking 50939:
Should the index fail to sustain above 50939, traders should brace for further downside. This break could signal the end of the current bullish wave structure and open the door for a deeper correction.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Support Test:
Monitor the behavior around 50939 closely in the upcoming sessions.
Potential Upside:
If 50939 holds, look for upside momentum as we approach the first week of September 2024.
This is a pivotal moment for BankNifty. Stay alert and be ready to adjust your positions based on the critical 50939 level.
Regards
WaveTalks
Thrust
Awaiting Triangle Thrust in SRF.Getting started with today's real-time research, I'm going to talk little bit about triangle types and its position. If you are calling from my recent posts, I has written various type of Triangles: 1. Contracting triangle, Expanding triangle, and Barrier triangle . I'm going to be showing you a technique called a triangle thrust measurement technique and gonna be utilized to identify a high probability target. The Triangles are limited in where they can from by themself at wave 4, Wave X and Wave B and rarely wave 2.
Protective Stop, Critical Resistance and Failed Pattern:-
Only word of caution with respect to this pattern in this market at this time that prices have yet to get below extreme of wave "D". On an hourly closing basis being the case, that means we can actually see maybe another move to the upward OR a more time consuming wave "E" OR wave "E" itself can actually form into a triangle. Therefore, until the price actually get below the extreme of wave "D" on an hourly closing basis. You need to do is simply view this point right here in the extreme of wave "C" as are critical support level for this interpretation. Whenever the price close above critical support, it means simple I'm wrong . But, the price would come below extreme of wave "D" on a hourly basis that would provide very strongest evidence for this pattern is indeed to complete. And, then the price is going to see a thrust.
Thrust Measurement Technique:
At the origin of the move for ABCDE triangle or simply taking the widest portion of the triangle in measuring it. In this real-time instance, expecting trust measurement move is approximately at 2226 downside from the extreme of wave E.
Trade-Setup:
I'll divide the "Trade-Setup" into two portion, one for Aggressive Trader and other for Safe-Trader. The safe trader can take action after breaking down wave "D" on basis that means after revealing the evidence of thrust move. An aggressive trader can act at or nearby "Critical Support" in advance. Yes, absolutely traders can create their position at these both trade-setup.
Best of Luck.
HDFC: WaveTalks- Pattern / Patience & Penultimate Correction
WaveCount
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• 1-2 -3 -4 (Running Currently) - 5th Wave Expected Upside.
• 4th Wave
o Unfolding as Triangle having last leg - "e" wave close to end.
o 4th Wave Triangles are "penultimate wave" means it is 2nd last wave & one more wave left in the structure which started from the lows of 1473 on 23rd / 25th March2020.
• 5th Wave - Expected Next
o 5th Wave can be explosive upside & can travel upside to 2900+ high in days & weeks ahead
Traditional Chart Patterns
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• Cup & Handle Pattern
o Valid Cup & Handle Pattern always has prior trend as uptrend. In current case it is tilted cup with handle which is valid pattern as prior wave ("b-wave) was uptrend from low@2365 to high@2896
o Bias - Positive
• Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern
o This pattern has no such requirement like cup & handle pattern but prior trend if downtrend is always preferred as after consolidation it most likely has to reverse & move upside again once neckline is crossed.
o Bias - Positive
Moving Average
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o 200 DEMA ( Daily Exponential Moving Average) has been taken into consideration which seems to be quiet in sync with the stock move as supported multiple times post completing "wave-1" which got resistance exactly at 1921.90 ( approx.- 1922)
o 1st support after completing Wave-1 was at 1907 which was exactly 200 DEMA support .
o Taking support from 1907- stock travelled explosive upside in "Wave -3" which got completed at high@2777
o Wave- 4 unfolded as Triangle which is almost completed or about to complete with "e-wave" the final leg in the triangle.
o "c-wave" in the triangle took support at 2354 which is again 200 DEMA support
o "e-wave" in the triangle also close to 200 DEMA support.
o Bias - Positive
Stop Loss
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• Stop loss should be below "c-wave" 2354 plus few points lower which can be taken as 2345 (10 points lower) or as per trader's judgement
Target
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• First Target - 2650 which is "d-wave" of the triangle wave
• Second / Final Target - 2900+
Risk to Reward
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• Excellent risk reward of 3-4 times
Conclusion
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• Stock has bullish bias holding above 2345 key & critical level which is close to 200 DEMA support & can be expected to move in the explosive 5th Wave to the targets of 2650 & 2900+ in days & weeks ahead.
• We also conclude that stock market can see fireworks generally if Nifty holds above 15450 –key & critical level. Nifty Expected move can be for 1st Target -15900 / 2nd Target – 16350 / 3rd Target – 16750
Thanks & Have a nice week ahead.