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Timecycle

NIFTY OUTLOOK (With this pattern I predicted the COVID CRASH)Amid the all fears of Rising crude oil prices, Fed hiking rates, Rising US treasury yields with no sign of inflation being in control or Rising Dollar index. There is no doubt that bearish sentiment has prevailed among many retail people. But one thing cannot be denied that Indian market has stayed more defensive compared to global markets. One pattern that I have observed is after every 700 -730 days a high is formed in NIFTY. So according to the same cycle, I strongly feel indian markets may correct in healthy manner by forming a top near 1st - 2nd week of Dec 2023. Even if NIFTY falls before, it will form a pull back top at around the same time. Using the same cycle I predicted the COVID CRASH few years back : Link to the study: That doesn't mean one has to buy every dips or short every top. But a profit booking on the every rise is definitely advisable. Aggressive shorts can be done only after confirmation. CHART AND ANALYSIS ADARSH DEY
NSE:NIFTY
by AdarshDey
6
TIME CYCLE AND FIBONACCI SPIRAL" GOD MUST BE A MATHEMATICIAN " If we look at the construction of universe and movements of the planets & other celestial objects movements, flowering & fruiting cycles in trees etc. everything has a pattern and they are cyclical in nature. That very same assumption is applied and works well in stock market, commodities and forex as well. Identifying the time zones of a stocks is a pure trial and error method where one needs to find the high and low making cycle of a particular stock manually. Here NLC INDIA LTD has been taken as an example and a Price and Time analysis has been done on monthly chart using Time Zones & Fibonacci Spiral for future support and hypothetical path identification. The lows of the trend labelled as W, X,Y in rectangular spots. Point "X" has been formed 79 Months after the point "W". But magically Point "Y" has been formed after 79 months after Point "X" The highs of the trend are labelled as A & B in circular spot. Point "B" has been formed 79 Months after Point "A". Looking at the cycle of 79 Months in the Lows and Highs Formation we can make an assumption that the next high ( Point "C" ) would be after 79 Months from Point "B" ie. Dec 2023. Fibonacci Spiral is a natural pattern that can be seen everywhere in nature including flowers, pinecones, hurricanes and even huge spiral galaxies in space. This is rarely used but useful pattern in charts for finding expected supports and resistance. In this chart we can see that after the formation of low at Point "Y", with the help of Fibonacci Spiral we have a continuous expected support. Till now after 2.5 Years the monthly closing of a single candle has never been below the Fibonacci Spiral(try to adjust the X axis of the chart incase you don't see a perfect fit) .So the fact if Fibonacci Spiral used wisely can be a useful pattern for finding support and resistance levels cannot be denied. Currently NLC INDIA LTD is at resistance of the trendline drawn from the previous 2 highs ie. Point "A" & "B". Hopefully it will breakout because stock increases at a increasing near its high, which hasn't happened yet with this stock. Till now NLC_INDIA is far away from its expected high according to the time cycle and Trend based fibonacci retracement level. The gann level of 1.33 is at 136.55 by Trend based fibonacci retracement and the expected time is Dec 2023 time cycle. Thus this is how a hypothetical conclusion can be drawn that NLC INDIA LTD will attain a price level of 136.55 by DEC 2023. Recently a study was done on NIFTY, predicting perfectly the low making day and the target date for NIFTY proving that time cycles works very well with indices and stocks.Link has been given below. STUDY & ANALYSIS ADARSH KUMAR DEY
NSE:NLCINDIAEducation
by AdarshDey
9
GUJARAT GAS LTDThis is no doubt a fundamentally good company trading at its low while its peers are trading a their higher levels. So it can be strongly assumed that this stock may perform in the upcoming time. Reasons for which GUJARAT GAS seems to be bullish on charts at least for short term: 1. Trend line support is been taken since the beginning of the month at Golden Ratio of the previous up trend. 2. A Bullish candlestick pattern has been formed. 3. The time cycle of 29 days (plotted as vertical dashed lines & rectangular boxes) indicates a reversal. 4. Risk Reward ratio is good. The target seems to be at 504-520 with a minor hurdle at 486. SL remains to be 451 on closing basis. CHART & ANALYSIS ADARSH KUMAR DEY
NSE:GUJGASLTDLong
by AdarshDey
1
NIFTY OUTLOOK (DOWNSIDE BY 10TH TO 15TH MAY)After forming a Bullish Wolfe Wave, Nifty has been rallying fantastically. It has successfully given a break out of the 2-4 TL. And with ups and down I expect the rally to continue till 10 May to 15th May 2023. I am not sure about the price levels but the utmost high that is achievable by NIFTY seems to be 18605 (18605 has been derived by both Price action and Fibonacci Retracement) The reason is purely because of Time cycle. As I have posted earlier the exact downside reversal of Nifty starting 2nd December 2022, this current chart is just a follow up of the previous chart. Nifty follows a 55 Days Time cycle for downside reversal where it tops out and falls by minimum 5.5%. All the time cycles are plotted in “Red Vertical Lines” and the tops are enclosed in a “Rectangular Structure”. PREVIOUSLY DOWNSIDE SEEN IN 55 DAYS TIME CYCLE: 12TH JAN 2022 4TH APRIL 2022 13TH SEPT 2022 2ND DEC 2022 20TH FEB 2023 The next time cycle of 55 Days lies in between 10th -15th May 2023. I expect Nifty may start reversing downside in between the above mentioned dates. I am not sure about the price levels, it may be anywhere between above 18100 to 18605. Incase of any confirmation for the price, I will surely update the same in update idea section of this chart. Nifty may consolidate or give a 1% to 1.5% percent fall before the dates but I expect that it would be only to create a new high. The link to the previous study for the downside reversal starting 2nd December 2023 is given below: CHART & ANALYSIS Adarsh Dey
NSE:NIFTY
by AdarshDey
10
NIFTY (SAR & TIME CYCLE ANALYSIS)PLOT EXPLANATION: This study is just an extension of the previous NIFTY OUTLOOK predicting the Nifty downside reversal on 2ND Dec (Pinned to the Chart). Previously we noticed that Nifty follows a 55 Trading sessions Cycle, where it makes important Lows & Highs after every 55 Trading sessions. It has been plotted on the chart for a better understanding. A parallel channel has been plotted to mark the important intermediary support and resistance. The upper part of the channel has been marked as “A” and lowers one as “B”. Line B acts as a support; Nifty has taken support on 27 July 2022, 30 Sept 2022 & 1 Feb 2023. Line “A” acts as a resistance, Nifty has taken Resistance on 6 Oct 2022 and finally break out. Nifty has already given breakout from the 2 months downtrend on 14th Feb 2023. Currently from 16 Feb 2023, Nifty is taking resistance at the same line but it is expected to breakout gradually on the upper side, until the 17750 level is not violated for continuously 3 sessions. And going by the 55 Trading sessions cycle, the upside reversal date remains to be at 21st Feb to 23rd Feb 2023. CONCLUSION: So hypothetically an upside reversal in Nifty may start in-between 21st to 23rd Feb 2023. A good momentum can be seen once Nifty Moves above Line “A”. Once Nifty trades above the Line "A", then I will update with the targets. If Nifty starts trading below 17750 for 2 to 3 trading session, then this study remains negated. Updated image of the previous NIFTY TIME CYCLE Study for a better understanding of ‘55 Trading sessions’ Time Cycle in NIFTY CHART & ANALYSIS ADARSH DEY
NSE:NIFTY
by AdarshDey
TIME CYCLES & PRICE STUDYThe correction in HIKAL LTD seems to be done, the wave counting has been mentioned in the chart. Currently the stock is trying to a time wise correction and has consolidated for a time being try to form a rounded bottom structure and taking support on a curve during the correction phase. Interestingly HIKAL LTD has a trading cycle of forming a low in every 88 trading Sessions or roughly 128 to 130 days. Lows has been plotted in Rectangular plots and the time between each low has been plotted using date range in the bottom of the chart. However after the low is formed, the high is formed within 43-46-50 trading sessions ie.60 to 70 days. The expected date for recent low formation was 17th Nov 2022, although the low was formed one month back on 26th Sept 2022 but still the stock was not rallying and lying roughly on the same level. Surprisingly on 17th Nov 2022 the stock made a low near the closing price of 26th Sept 2022 showing a support and the importance of the low formation cycle of 88 trading Sessions. That’s the power of Time cycles . But after 17th Nov 2022 the stock has been forming higher lows and even an Ascending triangle. Isn’t it interesting that after 17th Nov 2022, the stock gives a clearer picture of curved support and also forms an ascending triangle showing bullishness. It’s already been 13 Trading sessions or 19 days over after the Low formation date of 17th Nov 2022 so the stock is expected to do good in the month of December as roughly 40 to 45 days are remaining for the new expected high.A good up move can be seen once the breakout occurs. On a conservative approach using Fibonacci retracement the target stands to be at 416-420 with a SL below 335 on closing basis. But it is always advisable to enter once the breakout occurs and there is a proper confirmation for entry CHART & ANALYSIS ADARSH KUMAR DEY
NSE:HIKAL
by AdarshDey
7
NIFTY (TIME & LUNAR CYCLE)The very word “lunacy” dates back to the 15th century when it was believed the moon and its phases could make people become more or less aggressive, depending on its place in the lunar cycle Several studies found a connection between full and new Moons and stock market performance. Generally, stocks tend to perform better in the days around the New Moon, while price weakness is more frequently seen in the days around Full Moon. It was also observed that major market crashes have a history of happening about 3 days before a New Moon. We will try to understand the significance of cyclical movements in Nifty its theory and few previously applied practical executions (that gave precise accuracy) and at last try to predict NIFTY for the upcoming time using the same. Let’s try to put the very same concept of Lunar Cycles and Time cycles in Nifty and draw a conclusion of the possible scenario that could happen in future after drawing a pattern from the past. LUNAR CYCLES IN NIFTY: Every downside rally starts or intensifies with Full Moon Day. If we look at downside rally starting 19th OCT 2021, it started just a day before full moon day and market fell by almost 12%. - On downside rally starting 18th JAN 2022, which started just a day after full moon day and market fell by almost 14.60%. - On downside rally starting 5th APR 2022, which started just few days before full moon day and market fell by almost 16%. - On downside rally starting 15th SEPT 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 7.5%. - On downside rally starting 2th DEC 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 5.87% Just Lunar Cycle alone is not enough as these are also confirmed by 55 Days Reversal cycle. This ongoing reversal was well informed before it was initiated .Please check this analysis (dated 2nd Dec 2022) to find the same: The current high was predicted based on Fibonacci Retracement (dated 29th OCT 2022, Target done on 1st DEC 2022) If we look at the past we can see that the process of Low formation takes a time of about 99-101 days approximately, which means in every 99 to 101 days a low is formed where after Nifty rallies upside by a whopping 10% minimum. One more interesting pattern that can be seen is after a low is formed Nifty forms the high in 3 * x number of days, such as 27 days , 87 days or 63 days ( Anything that is a multiple of 3), the remaining days when subtracted from 100, are the days it takes to form the low. It has been plotted with date range in the chart itself. This is how we should try to find a time cycle pattern .But anyways as we have predicted the high with a price and time confirmation successfully, we should be focusing on finding the bottom of NIFTY where we can get a buy opportunity. If we do the Mathematics behind the low formation and high low formation then we will come to a hypothetical result that an initiation of upside in NIFTY may be seen just before or after 6th JAN. Because the previous low formation date was 29th Sept 2022 and 100 days from it is 6th JAN 2022. Expected NIFTY downside levels are mentioned in the chart itself. OR ELSE THE CALCULATION MAY BE COMPUTED IN THIS WAY: The previous low was formed was in 29th Sept 2022 and market rallied upside for approximately 63 days and remaining is 37 days to complete the 99-101 days Low formation cycle. So probably NIFTY may finish the correction near to 6th JAN 2022. This is just an example that how time cycles are needed to be identified by a trader as it is not visible easily. Moreover in predictive analysis the probability of any error is high. So one possibility we can’t ignore is that market may bottom out before the mentioned date but I strongly feel the aggressive upside may be seen only near to 6th JAN 2022. CHART & ANALYSIS ADARSH DEY
NSE:NIFTY
by AdarshDey
5
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG spot cmp 33608Index is trading in time cycle of 106 days and 73 trading bars on daily time frame, after every 106 days index tends to make peak and reverse below previous low levels, 106 days cycle maturing soon,, need to keep watch on that time cycle, index have given break out from descending trend line resistance, and sustaining above that levels, but till it does not sustain above levels of previous swing high,, there is probability of 3 drive harmonic pattern formation,, which would lead index to fresh low levels , in both case study of time cycle and harmonic, there is probability for dow jones making fresh 52 weeks low,, at the moment reversal below trend line is necessary to consider the end of bullish trend, RSI is making bearish divergence and also RSI have broken the trend line and at the moment is at retest levels,, if reversal is confirmed index will give sharp fall ,waiting for confirmation below trend line on daily candle.. This view is conditional.
DJ:DJI
by RUDRA007
5
NIFTY OUTLOOKThis is a 180 Min TF NIFTY chart. By the end of this post we would try to understand the short term trend and the trade setup for the next week. An update on daily basis will be given in the update idea section. - TIME CYCLE: If we study the time cycle starting at 17 June 2022. I have adjusted the cycles at certain TF for better adjustment. We can observe the low made at point 1 and the breakout lead to a good up move. And vice a versa was seen at point 2 and 3. Accordingly the low before a good bounce is expected to be made at Point 4 which is nearly around 13 or 14 th Oct. TRENDLINES: Even the trendline starting at 13th Sep 2022 (just before point 3 ) is currently acting as a resistance. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT: 17081 will act as the first support incase of any gap down as currently indicated by SGX. The next support level would be 16900 if 17801 is taken out. Any buying signal if generated at these level near the time cycle(13 or 14 th Oct) should not be ignored given that they are confirmed by price action. And if such thing happen, I will update the same in this post. It's been a while I have updated my page with regular NIFTY OUTLOOK posts due to some reasons. However in the last NIFTY OUTLOOK, I mentioned the target of 18342. And even after initiating a bear rally , NIFTY bounced and achieved the target dot to dot before falling heavily. CHART & ANALYSIS ADARSH DEY
NSE:NIFTY
by AdarshDey
The price can be bullish until 20th June 2022 by TimeCycle.The trend phenomena can be bullish until 20th June 2022 based on the accumulation phase (iii) can continue. The outcome of the up-move prediction is only on TimeCycle analysis. I prefer to make trade setup by Multiple Analyses while the outcome is in the same direction or one favor of direction analysis. Therefore, I work on the Elliott wave for identifying direction on different time-frames, using Fibonacci retracement for support and resistance, and the price action analysis (for taking entry, exit, and finding protection of capital), etc.
NSE:NIFTY1!Long
by Trade-Technique
6
Hero moto case studyHERO MOTO SPOT 2675 HARMONIC + PRICE ACTION + CHART PATTERN + TIME CYCLE + HISTORICAL CYCLIC STUDY TIME FRAME :- WEEKLY We have considered historical case study, where counter gave a upmove of around 128% after that there was a retracement of 30% and finally a up-move of 81% In this historical case we have considered pole and flag pattern formation,, where flag formation is in form of falling contracting wedge.. time of flag formation was around 39 weeks. In flag formation there was formation of double bottom pattern, with positive divergence on RSI and at same time RSI gave a retest of breakout of falling trend line. After the retracement was over counter gave a upmove of 81% from the low of retracement zone,, time consideration in pole and final leg of upmove have relation of 1.2 time. Current case Study :- There was a first up move leg of 130% after that current retracement zone going on where counter have retraced 28% which is almost equal to historical case study. Now if history have to repeat counter can give up move of 81% from current bottom of this retracement zone. In this current case study there is pole and flag pattern formation,, where the flag formation is in form of falling contracting wedge, time of flag formation is almost 36 weeks, almost same a historical case study, if it have to be 39 week which means still consolidation of 2 more weeks possible in counter after that breakout from the flag formation can be seen, as time of pole formation is different for both the case so in terms of percentage time it can give breakout any time now. In flag formation there is formation of double bottom pattern, with positive divergence on RSI and at same time RSI gave a retest of breakout of falling trend line , perfect copy of historical case study. so now as per this cyclic study if counter gives breakout from pole and falg formation and time cycle maturity it can give upmove of 81% from current levels which will lead counter to around 4800 levels. and approx time for this move would be till november of 2022 as per historical time calculation. Harmonic Study :- Butterfly pattern formation on weekly time frame Pre assumption of Butterfly pattern lead us to following conculsion Leg C of Butterfly pattern formation is on verge to mature and if the final leg D of the pattern unfold , Which as per theory should be 1.27% extention of Leg XA , would lead us to levels of 4800 levels . So pattern maturity lies around levels of 4800 as per butterfly formation. Conclusion :- Two case study as per price action , chart pattern formation, time cycle lead us to levels of 4800 levels and harmonic study also lead us to levels of 4800 levels,, Counter can be considered as good investment candidate from current levels.. for targets of 3600-4200-4800 Trade type : Investment Time horizon :- 12-15 months Good investment candidate.
NSE:HEROMOTOCOLong
by RUDRA007
2