LiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of NovemberLiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of November
Accumulation range 4047–3928, prioritise buying on breakout – watch for short at 4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382)
Overview: After the correction from the historical peak, gold is forming a bottom – accumulating in the price box 4047–3928. The D1 structure still leans towards a medium-term uptrend if the price holds above 3928; the ~4200 area coincides with a broad FVG + Fib 0.382, a “liquidity pool” prone to strong reactions.
Macro Summary
Hedging flows against public debt/deficit risks and net buying demand from some central banks/Asian bloc support the long-term trend.
Expectations of a cooling interest rate path in 2026 help ease pressure on gold, but pullbacks may still occur before major technical milestones.
Technical Analysis (D1 Frame – Trendline | S/R | Volume zone | Fibonacci)
Accumulation Range: 4047 (top of the box) ↔️ 3928 (bottom of the box). D1 closing above 4047 confirms an upper range expansion; breaking 3928 triggers a deeper decline to lower Fib levels.
Fibonacci of the most recent up wave:
The price is oscillating around 0.618 → tendency to form a base.
Deeper area if the base breaks: 0.5 ~ 3850 and 0.382 ~ 3710.
Key resistance: 4090–4120 (mid-box area), ~4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) – expected large liquidity/short-term reversal zone.
Important support: 3990–4010 (psychological/trading cushion), 3928 (lower range – breakout mark).
Trendline: The medium-term uptrend line remains intact if corrections do not close below 3928.
Trading Scenario for the New Week
Scenario 1 – Buy with the trend on upper range breakout
Condition: D1 closes above 4047, retest holds firm at 4038–4047.
Entry: 4048–4055
SL: 4018
TP: 4090 → 4120 → 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382)
Management: Take partial profit at 4090/4120, move SL to breakeven at +1R.
Scenario 1b – Buy at the box bottom (fade range)
Entry: 3935–3945 (when there is a rejection candle/clear buying tail at 3928–3945)
SL: 3895
TP: 3995–4010 → 4040–4047
Note: If D1 closes below 3928, cancel the plan and switch bias to a bearish scenario.
Scenario 2 – Short reaction at the 4200 liquidity zone
Entry: 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) when clear rejection appears on D1/H4
SL: 4225
TP: 4120 → 4047 → 4010 (extended target: 3850 if there is a breakdown signal)
Note: Counter-trend order; reduce volume, exit quickly if D1 closes above 4205.
Risk & Invalidation
The medium-term bullish bias remains valid as long as D1 does not close below 3928.
D1 closing below 3928 opens the path to 3850 (Fib 0.5), even 3710 (Fib 0.382).
Strong news (CPI, employment, central bank speeches) can disrupt signals; wait for candle closure according to the chosen frame.
Summary
Gold is “spring-loaded” within 4047–3928. Priority plan: Buy on breakout–hold 4047 to aim for 4090–4120 and test ~4200; simultaneously watch for short reaction at 4200. If 3928 breaks, switch scenario to decline towards 3850 → 3710.
