XAUUSD: Buy the dip or break to 4,587? MMF strategyXAUUSD (2H) – MMF Intraday Outlook
Market Context
Gold remains in a bullish continuation phase after breaking out of the prior accumulation range. Current price action shows a healthy pullback / rebalancing inside an ascending channel — a typical behavior before the next expansion leg, not a reversal signal.
Structure & SMC
Strong bullish impulse → range formation for liquidity reset.
4,485.981 acts as a key Demand / Bullish OB, where buyers previously stepped in.
Liquidity and upside objective are resting near 4,587.447.
Key Levels
BUY Zone (Demand / OB): 4,486
Mid-range / Pivot: ~4,533
Upside Liquidity Target: 4,587
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY (Preferred)
If price pulls back into 4,486 and shows acceptance (wick rejection / bullish close),
Then look for BUY continuation:
TP1: range high / intraday resistance
TP2: 4,587
Invalidation: clean 2H close below 4,486 → stand aside and reassess structure.
Alternative Scenario – Break & Retest BUY
If price holds above balance and breaks higher with strong displacement,
Then wait for a break–retest to join continuation toward 4,587.
Avoid chasing price in the middle of the range.
Macro Backdrop
Ongoing dovish Fed expectations and softer yields continue to support gold.
End-of-month liquidity can cause sharp swings → patience and level-based execution are key.
Summary
Short-term bias remains bullish as long as 4,486 holds.
MMF focus today: buy pullbacks into demand, target 4,587 liquidity.
Trend Analysis
HIND COPPER: Still has unfinished TragetsHIND COPPER :Trading at 495 still has momentum
Even in Monthly chart Trading above all its Moving averages 10 DEMA/20DEMA/50DEMA/100 DEMA.
Has formed a huge Rounding bottom pattern and trading above its neckline breakout suggests a move to 600+
As per FIB Extension 23.6% lies at 535
FIBONACCI Extension 38.2% lies at :605
Especially those who are long shall trail their profits with SL of 510 on a closing basis for a Target of 535/550/575/600(For educational purpose only)
BBOX - weekly chart analysisBBOX - The stock has gone through several pullbacks after the earlier up-move, showing that buying interest is absorbing selling pressure at higher levels.
EMAs are rising and properly aligned, and the price is holding above them, which indicates overall strength. Volatility has reduced, and recent candles are getting tighter near the resistance area.
A strong breakout with volume from this zone can start the next upward move. Till then, patience is needed, this is still a setup forming, not a confirmed breakout yet.
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📌 For learning and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
CUBEX TUBINGS:Likely Triangle Break Out for 10% TARGETCUBEX TUBINGS:Trading at around 112.
Trading above all the critical Moving Averages viz.10 DEMA,20DEMA,50DEMA.
Golden Cross Over :10 DEMA Over 100DEMA
Increase in Volume.
Tri-Angle Break Out
Combination of the above with increase in volume suggests 10-15% upside for a Target of 120/130/140/150(For Educational purpose only)
Nifty - Weekly Review Dec 29 to Jan 2The movement from 25700 to 26200 and the pullback towards the 26000 support zone looks like a rounding top bottom formation in process. If the price reaches 25700, then the pattern will be complete, and then it will give a pattern breakout.
Buy above 26020 with the stop loss of 25960 for the targets 26060, 26120, 26200, 26260, 26320 and 26360.
Sell below 25880 with the stop loss of 25940 for the targets 25840, 25780, 25720, 25660, 25600 and 25540.
Daily candle shows bearish strength, but the price is still sustaining above 26000. Observe how the price is behaving at this zone before taking any trade.
RITES Ltd (Monthly Chart – NSE)🔍 Chart Structure & Trend
The stock is in a long-term uptrend since 2020, marked by higher highs and higher lows.
Price action is currently moving within a symmetrical triangle / converging trendline structure:
Rising trendline support from 2022–2025.
Falling trendline resistance from the 2024 peak.
This indicates price consolidation after a strong uptrend, usually a pause before expansion.
🟦 Key Support Zones
₹235–240
Immediate support near the rising trendline.
Price has already respected this zone multiple times (as marked).
₹210–215
Major structural support.
Breakdown below this may weaken the medium-term trend.
₹185–190 (Extreme support)
Valid only if broader market sentiment turns negative.
🔴 Resistance Zones
₹270–280
Near the upper trendline of the triangle.
First hurdle for any upside move.
₹300+
Psychological & historical resistance.
Sustained breakout above this can trigger trend acceleration.
📈 Pattern Interpretation
Symmetrical Triangle after an uptrend → Bullish continuation pattern (probability-based, not guaranteed).
Volume contraction (if confirmed) would further support a breakout setup.
Directional move is expected once price closes decisively outside the triangle on monthly basis.
🧭 Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Monthly close above ₹280–285
Target zones (positional): ₹320 → ₹360 (time-dependent)
Neutral / Range-bound
Price oscillates between ₹235–280
Best suited for long-term investors, not aggressive traders
Bearish Scenario
Monthly close below ₹210
Trend weakens; deeper correction possible
🧠 Risk Management View
Trend remains constructive as long as rising trendline holds.
No aggressive positions advised inside triangle.
Confirmation > prediction.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is purely for educational and informational purposes based on technical chart patterns.
It does not constitute investment advice, buy/sell recommendation, or solicitation.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor or do your own research before taking any financial decision.
SUN PHARMA – Weekly Chart Analysis 🔵 Trend Structure
• The stock has been in a broad consolidation phase since late 2023.
• Price recently moved up strongly and is now testing a long-term descending trendline.
• This trendline has acted as resistance multiple times, making the current level crucial.
________________________________________
🔥 Current Price Action (Bullish Attempt)
• Latest weekly candle shows strong buying with a close near the highs.
• Price is attempting a breakout above the descending resistance.
• Follow-through next week is important — a breakout ideally needs:
o Strong closing above the trendline
o No immediate rejection wick
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🧭 Key Levels to Watch
🟢 Resistance Levels
• ₹1,812 – 1,832 → First supply zone
• ₹1,850 – 1,880 → Major resistance; previous swing highs
• ₹1,912 – 1,960 → Strong multi-year resistance zone
A breakout above ₹1,880 could open the path toward ₹1,960.
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🔴 Support Levels
• ₹1,740 – 1,755 → Immediate support (trendline retest zone)
• ₹1,580 – 1,555 → Major support cluster
• If the price falls below ₹1,555, the trend becomes weak on weekly timeframe.
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⚖️ Market Psychology
• Buyers are stepping in aggressively after multi-week accumulation.
• Sellers are defending the trendline, so the next 1–3 candles decide direction.
• A breakout will bring momentum traders & institutions, increasing volatility.
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📈 Possible Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Breakout (Most likely if momentum continues)
• Weekly close above ₹1,810
• Retest of trendline → Support holds
• Targets: ₹1,850 → ₹1,880 → ₹1,960
2️⃣ Rejection from Trendline
• Wicks on top or red candle next week
• Price may fall back to ₹1,740 or deeper
• Loss of ₹1,740 increases risk of falling to ₹1,580
________________________________________
🔍 Pro Trader View
• Trendline breakout is the trigger zone.
• Watch for:
o Volume expansion
o Strong closes above resistance
o No sharp rejections
Price trending above the descending trendline will shift the structure from consolidation to fresh uptrend continuation.
________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk. Always consult your financial advisor and do your own research before taking any trading decisions.
BTCUSD Regains Balance After Correction, Upside Zone in ViewBTCUSD shifted from a strong upward phase into a healthy correction after reacting from supply. Price declined in an orderly manner and found stability near demand, where selling pressure slowed. From this base, price action has started to recover gradually, creating higher lows and improving structure. This indicates that selling momentum has cooled for now, allowing room for upward expansion if market conditions stay favourable. The 91k area remains an important reference on the chart, where price may move if momentum strengthens. Market movement depends on participation and volatility. This observation reflects structure only and not a trading recommendation.
Bitcoin Is Quiet Again — That’s Usually When Big Moves BeginBitcoin spent multiple sessions moving sideways inside a clearly defined accumulation range.
This kind of price behavior usually signals one thing, strong hands are building positions while weak hands get shaken out.
Sideways markets are not random. They are preparation phases.
Price remained compressed inside the accumulation zone, showing balance between buyers and sellers with declining volatility.
The breakout candle was decisive and impulsive, indicating acceptance above the range rather than a fake move.
After breakout, price pulled back into the prior range high, which is a classic bullish retest behavior.
As long as price holds above the breakout base, the structure favors continuation toward the expansion zone marked on the chart.
A failure back inside the range, would invalidate the breakout and shift momentum back to neutral.
If this helped you read price better, like, follow, or comment, more clean structure studies coming.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets involve risk. Always manage your position size and do your own analysis.
Part 3 Learn Institutional Trading What Is an Option?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price, known as the strike price, on or before a specified date called the expiry date. The seller (or writer) of the option has the obligation to fulfill the contract if the buyer chooses to exercise the option.
Options are traded on various underlying assets, including stocks, indices, commodities, currencies, and ETFs. The price paid by the buyer to acquire this right is known as the option premium.
Bitcoin 2025: Yearly Reflection beyond HYPEAs the curtain falls on 2025, it’s time to step back from the daily noise and hype and reflect on how Bitcoin performed this year.
NOTE (before you continue): To stay honest, a lot of “AI” charts look good because they secretly include future data (either intentionally or unintentional data leakage). This one doesn’t.
All yearly bands on this BTC chart were computed using data only up to Dec 2024. No 2025 data was used to build the map. Then 2025 simply played out against those pre-built zones.
Was Bitcoin really worth the hype (from both bulls and bears)?
1) 2025 was more “rubber band” than “rocket ship”
Bitcoin spent much of the year returning to a fair-price zone instead of trending cleanly in one direction.
That’s called mean reversion:Price moves away from value and then comes back.It doesn’t keep running forever.
2) The hype was louder than the move
Headlines made BTC feel like it was in a massive trend year. The year was full of forecasts calling for BTC “to the moon,” and later, calls for BTC “to crash.”
But the chart shows something calmer:
The upside didn’t convert into sustained “new regime” acceptance. The downside also didn’t collapse into deep panic zones.
The year in 3 simple phases
Phase 1: Early-year chop (base building)
BTC spent time rotating and stabilizing, rather than trending.
Phase 2: Mid-year push, but no sustained expansion
There was upside and downside push, but it didn’t convert into a “new high regime” for long.
Phase 3: Late-year give-back (back toward value)
Price drifted back down and ended closer to value (around the high-80Ks on the snapshot) rather than staying in the upper zones.
.....................................................................................................................
NOTE: How to read these bands
Think of it like a city map:
Equilibrium / Value Zone (grey area)
This is the “fair price neighborhood.”
BTC kept coming back here — meaning most of 2025 was not a runaway trend, but a market searching for balance.
Predictive Rails (Upper / Lower)
These are like “gates.”
Holding above the upper rail = bullish acceptance
Losing below the lower rail = bearish acceptance
2025 spent a lot of time around these gates, but without a clean breakout that held.
Outer / Extreme Zones
These are the “too far, too fast” areas. When price reaches these zones, moves often exhaust or stall, because the market becomes stretched.
Strong bullishcase for NALCONational Aluminium Company Ltd | Weekly Elliott Wave Update
On the weekly timeframe, price has already exceeded the typical projection for Wave (5), confirming that the market is well into an ongoing impulsive phase, not a pending one.
Key structural observations:
Both Wave (2) and Wave (4) retraced close to 61.8%, indicating deep corrective behaviour earlier in the trend.
Despite these deep retracements, price has now surpassed the common Wave (5) target zone, strengthening the bullish case.
When earlier corrections are deep, the market often compensates by showing shallower retracements in the later part of the trend.
From an Elliott Wave guideline perspective, this opens up an important structural possibility:
The moves marked earlier as 1–2 and 3–4 may, in hindsight, evolve into a nested structure (1–2, 1–2),
Which would imply further impulsive extensions ahead, with Wave (3 of 3) and subsequent Wave (4 of 3) still to unfold.
However, such nesting cannot be labelled in advance and should only be confirmed as the structure reveals itself.
Conclusion:
The trend remains firmly bullish. Given the already-achieved Wave (5) extension and the history of deep corrections, the market may now progress with shallower pullbacks, while keeping open the possibility of structural reclassification as the advance matures.
This is a structural market study, not a trading recommendation.Follow me to get updates.Like this post if it helps you.
Blue Star Ltd (NSE: BLUESTARCO) Technical View On DailyBlue Star appears to be in the process of forming a base after a sharp correction from the ₹2,300+ levels to recent lows near ₹1,520. The current price action suggests a potential reversal zone, where the stock may bounce after finding demand.
• Green Zone (₹1,642–₹1,633): This is a key support area, which has held multiple times in the past and is currently showing early signs of demand stepping in.
• The chart outlines a potential recovery path, where the price may:
1. Bounce toward ₹1,800
2. Face resistance and possibly consolidate or pull back
3. Attempt a re-test or higher low and continue upward
The drawn projections seem to represent a bullish reversal pattern forming from a demand zone indicating an accumulation phase may be underway.
Fundamentals
Blue Star is one of India’s leading air conditioning founded in 1943, and commercial refrigeration companies. The company also provides electro-mechanical projects and professional electronics solutions.
Core Business Segments
1. Cooling Products (Consumer AC's, Refrigerators): Significant contributor to revenue, especially during summer quarters.
2. Projects Business (MEP - Mechanical, Electrical & Plumbing): Large contracts in real estate, IT parks, hospitals, and infrastructure.
3. Professional Electronics and Industrial Systems (PEIS): Niche but growing, including data security, analytics, and testing solutions.
Recent Financial & Business Highlights
• FY24 Revenue: ₹9,025 crore
Net Profit: ₹440 crore (YoY growth of ~36%)
• EBITDA Margin: ~7.8% (improving due to better cost controls and operating leverage)
(Source: moneycontrol.com)
• Q4 is typically the strongest quarter due to seasonal demand, especially in room AC sales.
• Capacity expansion: A new plant in Sri City (Andhra Pradesh) to support long-term demand.
• Government push: Increased spending on infrastructure, smart cities, and public buildings is a tailwind for Blue Star’s Projects division.
Conclusion:
From a technical standpoint, if the stock sustains above ₹1,566 and gains momentum, it could revisit the ₹1,800 zone in the medium term. Keeping an eye on price behavior in this range can provide early confirmation of a breakout. chart is hinting at a potential bottom formation, as fundamentals remain strong with strong Q4 results, seasonality support, and infrastructure-led demand, the current consolidation phase may offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity.
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a buy/sell recommendation.
Part 2 Ride The Big Moves Option Trading in Practice
Successful option trading requires more than theoretical knowledge. Traders must combine:
Technical analysis to identify price trends and support–resistance levels.
Volatility analysis to choose the right strategies.
Market awareness, including events like earnings, economic data, and policy announcements.
Psychological discipline to handle losses and avoid impulsive decisions.
UNO MINDA – Ready to Revisit All-Time Highs?UNO Minda is showing strength after breaking out of a falling trendline channel. The stock is now hovering near the ₹1038–1044 supply zone with a strong volume base at ₹1018.
Observations:
Multiple trendline breakouts
Price holding above POC at ₹1018
Minor consolidation below resistance
If it sustains above ₹1044, the next logical target is ₹1130+. Support remains strong at ₹1018 and ₹980. As long as price holds above these levels, the structure remains bullish.
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a buy/sell recommendation.
Strides Pharma - Volumes Backing a Breakout?Daily Timeframe Analysis
The setup is heating up and now we’ve got volume profile data to back it. The price is hovering around ₹666.10, and it looks like it's building strength for a bigger move.
🔹 Key Observations:
Price is compressing under a falling trendline (descending triangle or wedge).
Strong volume node around the ₹650–₹675 zone. This means a lot of trading activity happened here — a key decision area.
Fibonacci projections suggest targets as high as ₹984.00, which is a +40% upside.
Breakout confirmation above ₹692.75 (61.8% level) can trigger a rally.
🔹 Important Levels:
📍 Resistance: ₹692.75 → ₹741.65 → ₹804.00 → ₹984.00
📉 Support: ₹624.00 → ₹581.50 → ₹530.00 → ₹515.20
📊 Volume Insight:
The visible range volume profile shows most trading volume has happened below the current price, which is bullish. If the price breaks above the current squeeze, it might fly with less resistance overhead.
🧠 Thought:
This chart is a coiled spring. If bulls push above ₹692 with momentum, this might become a quick swing to ₹740+, and maybe more in the short to medium term.
📝 #StridesPharma #BreakoutSetup #VolumeProfile #SwingTrade #IndianStocks
Karur Vysya Bank (W): Strongly Bullish - Blue Sky BreakoutTimeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic
The stock has confirmed a "Blue Sky" breakout to a new All-Time High, clearing a multi-week consolidation pattern. This move is backed by massive institutional buying volume on Friday, signaling the start of a new markup phase.
🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The technical breakout is driven by strong fundamental re-rating:
> Institutional Buying: Friday's massive volume (15M+ shares in one day) suggests a large fund entry. Investors are rewarding the bank for its superior Asset Quality (Net NPA at ~0.19%, one of the lowest in the industry).
> Midcap Bank Rally: Capital is rotating from large private banks into efficiently managed midcap banks like KVB, which are delivering consistent 20%+ earnings growth.
📈 2. The Chart Structure (Flag & Pole)
> The Pole: The sharp rally from ₹200 to ₹258 (Oct–Nov) formed the "Pole."
> The Flag: The consolidation between ₹242 – ₹255 over the last 4 weeks formed the "Flag." This was a healthy pause to digest gains.
> The Breakout: This week, the stock surged 4.13% , decisively closing above the flag resistance.
- Significance: A Flag breakout in an existing uptrend is a high-probability continuation pattern.
📊 3. Volume & Indicators
> Volume Concentration: The volume wasn't just "increasing"—it exploded on the breakout day (Dec 26). This is Demand Dominance .
> RSI: Rising in Monthly/Weekly frames. Currently near 70 , which is not "overbought" in a strong trend but rather indicates a "Super Bullish" zone.
🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
> 🐂 Bullish Targets (The Projection):
- Target 1: ₹310 .
- Target 2: ₹328 .
- Blue Sky: Since it is at an ATH, there is no overhead supply (resistance).
> 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"):
- Immediate Support: ₹255 – ₹258. The top of the "Flag" pattern. The stock should ideally not close back inside the flag.
- Stop Loss: Level of ₹242 is the perfect structural stop. A break below this invalidates the pattern.
Conclusion
This is a Grade A Setup .
> Refinement: The massive Friday volume confirms the breakout is real. The stock has entered "Price Discovery" mode.
> Strategy: Hold for the target of ₹310 . Any dip to ₹260 is a buying opportunity.
Part 1 Ride The Big Moves 1. Hedging
Investors use options to protect their portfolios from adverse price movements. For example, buying a put option on a stock you own acts like insurance against a price fall.
2. Speculation
Options allow traders to speculate on market direction with relatively low capital. A small move in the underlying can lead to a large percentage gain in the option premium.
3. Income Generation
By selling options (such as covered calls), traders can generate regular income in sideways or mildly trending markets.
4. Flexibility and Leverage
Options provide leverage, enabling traders to control a large position with a smaller investment compared to buying the underlying asset outright.
Part 1 Intraday Master Class Key Terminologies in Options
Understanding options requires familiarity with certain core concepts:
Strike Price: The price at which the option can be exercised.
Premium: The price paid for the option.
Expiry: The date on which the option contract expires.
Intrinsic Value: The immediate value of an option if exercised now.
Time Value: The portion of the premium attributable to the remaining time until expiry.






















