Trump
BTCUSD Chart estimations on previous Low and HighI'm just attempting to see where the BTCUSD may head next. So far, I have been able to deduce these scenarios where BTC might drop, reason being availability of both Hidden Divergence and Trump VS Biden uproar. Only one scenario is valid for BTCUSD pump and that is just a small possibility. However, the Support and Resistance levels at these Fib levels are way too strong for Market to ignore them. I suspect that the bear market is accumulating and thus we might see some massive drops in coming days.
How would you play these?
Inc in weekly jobless claims supported Gold, eye on retail salesGold prices continued to move sideways on the back of multiple events and updates floating in the market, although if the metal could not keep up pace it will be on the track for its first weekly decline in three weeks for the metal. On the bright side for the metal yesterday, President Trump announced that he is willing to raise his offer of $1.8tln for a Covid relief bill, although this idea was shot down by his fellow Republican itself, putting cold water on this little ray of hope. Europe and few states in U.S. are battling surges in COVID-19 cases, with new infections and hospitalizations rising to record levels, increasing worries and keeping the floor strong for gold. Increase in the weekly jobless claims to it's two
week high in the yesterday's session also supported gold on the lower levels. Market participants will keep an eye on the Retail sales and Industrial
production data from the US; in case of any decline could further support the metal.
With the trend on gold higher since 2016, and the weekly timeframe demonstrating active support at $1,882, buyers still likely have a strong hand in this fight. Traders may interpret chart structure as a cue to begin pursuing bullish themes off the current H4 trend line support, while conservative buyers might prefer to wait and see if the unit conquers H4 resistance at $1,916 before taking action.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1906-07 SL BELOW 1894 TGT 1915/1920
ELSE SELL BELOW 1894 TGT 1885/1880 SL ABV 1905
Trump on Twitter, undervalued euro and important dataTraditionally, financial markets could not relax mainly because of one person. It is all about US President Donald Trump. Yesterday, he said that if the head of Sino, Xi Jinping, does not meet with him at the G-20 summit, the United States will impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. So, as we warned, you should not relax and calm down. Accordingly, buying gold and Japanese yen, especially at current prices, seems to us one of the best trading ideas today.
Well, about Trump, we cannot but pay attention to the next wave of verbal interventions on his part. This time, he said that "The Euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the U.S. at a big disadvantage." Not that everyone rushed to buy euros after that, but Trump definitely sowed seeds of doubt.
Immediately, a whole series of major analysts burst out with forecasts in favor of euro growth. In particular, Deutsche Bank noted that the euro is undervalued by 7 against the dollar and should cost 1.20. And according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development model, the euro is generally undervalued by 22% (!).
Yesterday, unexpectedly, quite good data on the UK labor market appeared. Employment in April rose by 32K (with the forecast +4K), and the average salary showed growth above analysts' expectation 3.1% (with a forecast 3.0%). We have been waiting for much weaker statistics. Nevertheless, we consider the pound growth as an opportunity for its sales. Well, there are no reasons for the pound optimism. Brexit pauses until the new Prime Minister will be chosen this will happen no earlier than July. And it is not a fact that it will be a positive sign for the pound. So, you can re-open trade a little bit later in case of os stop-loss execution.
The main event of the day will be the inflation statistics publication from the United States. The output of data below forecasts or below 2% (the Feds target ), would be a pretty strong signal in favor of dollar sales. Recall, in a week the Fed’s decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States will be announced and it is very likely that the rate will be lowered this month. Perhaps even by 0.5%. Today's data will have an impact on it.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
DXY TNX spreadThe USD would ususally move according to the USD strength i.e. DXY.
Lately, it hasn't been the case.
There could be multiple theories around it..from fundamental to political to technical.
I am wondering what gives!
One plausible explanation is may be the Fed policy has gone beyond what's needed. But then again, it's pretty much set in stone now!
Is it a coincidence that this is happening around G20 and North Korea missile launch?
Or may be Fed has something to do with it? But then again..Fed is never really out of the news. They are taking backseat most in last 10 years though. And it's good.
So what gives? Is it Trump? He alienated Yellen and now she has made sure that the policy won't change even if she is removed.
That fiscal stimulus better be coming soon.