USD (US Dollar)
5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week
The US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week:
- US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress.
- The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June.
- Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility.
- The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
USDINR - bearish bias USDINR has taken nice resistance of the upper trend line. And selling pressure is building up since morning.
Short term trade is to trade till lower line.
To some one who wants to play for longer view may add shorts at each peak done like today. Once it starts trending lower trendline, down rally may start after a retest.
Smart think to do will be add after first breakown below lower trendline retest.
This will test a lot of patience.
User Discretion - any drastic news from Gov may drive prices crazy
Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD?Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD?
On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was attributed to slower growth in food prices and a further decrease in energy costs.
However, core inflation remained high at 5.5%, indicating that interest rates may need to stay high for some time to control it. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating a pause before expected rate cuts in September, which might be a little optimistic, as the Fed's target range remains at 5% to 5.25%.
The Mexican peso gained strength to 17.544, its highest value since July 2017, as the difference between US and Mexican monetary policies became more pronounced. The RSI on the USDMXN suggests it is in an extreme oversold condition, so a pullback may be necessary. Resistance levels from 2017 for the pair may no longer be relevant, but the strongest value the peso reached in 2017 was $17.430, while the peak in 2016 was $17.050.
For fundamental context, Banxico increased rates to an all-time high of 11.25% in March, despite a decrease in annual headline inflation that was greater than expected. Mexico's proximity to the US has also made it an attractive location for foreign companies to open factories targeting the American market and diversifying production from China. Additionally, the US economy's robust state has led to a rise in remittances to Mexico from expats.
GBPJPY sell setup right now workingGBPJPY can make a reversal and going down to 169.500 and below which we may see the actual trend bearish or it's just a correction . So , to be on a safe side with the stop loss above this week's high and target at the above price .You can get a great risk- reward .
Enjoy trading
Trade only with what you can lose
Happy week
USDINRIn the past times, USDINR is trying to hold its level and now we can see more rise above the levels
Characteristics of Triangle pattern
A pattern that has the following characteristics is more effective.
+ Before breaking out, prices need to touch both resistance and support levels at least twice each for the pattern to take effect.
+ This pattern gives a buy signal (breaking out of the resistance) which is more effective than a sell signal (breaking out of the support).
How to enter a trade is as follows.
When the price breaks out of the resistance, open a UP order. You can open the order as follows:
+ Entry Point: When the candlestick finishes breaking out of the resistance.
+ Stop-Loss: At the level where the price last hit the support before breaking out.
+ Take-Profit: From the entry point, the length is equal to the widest price amplitude generated within the Triangle.
#triangle
USDINR Break out of range
Finally a candle breaking out the angular flag Trend line on the upside which was awaited....
So, not we can get ready to see an aggressive move above this resistance.
T1 : Target 1 - Flag's length
T2 : Target 2 - Pole's length
Strategy to be used can be Bull Call Spread (aggressive way)
& Bull Put Spread (conservative way)
USD INR 2023Two week of the balance zone is disturbed and the balance zone is broken. USDINR unable to onboard new buyers in this zone. Triple top formed and trend reversal confirmed. In the short term it may test 81.60 to 81.80 levels to attract buyers. If it fails to attract, the next key level is 80.80.
USDINR Feb 2023USDINR is in a range since Oct 2022
Likely to break out of this 4 month range to give good targets
Targets analyzed & marked in chart as per flag length considered at higher low and breakout point.
But if the price action shows a Bearish Candle at third top, it is likely to swing down & retrace before breakout.
Range for Feb could be 83.25 - 82.5