Raoul Pal’s Investment Edge: The Art of Predicting Market ShiftHello Traders! First of all, no, this is not about me! 😆 I am Rahul Pal , and this is about Raoul Pal , the legendary macro investor! But don’t worry— my time will come too! Until then, let’s take this opportunity to learn from one of the best in the game and explore his key investment principles and strategies that have made him a market icon.
Raoul Pal is not just another investor—he is a master of macro trends who has successfully predicted major shifts in financial markets, global liquidity cycles, and the rise of digital assets. From his early bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum to his deep understanding of monetary policies and their impact on financial markets , his approach has helped thousands of traders and investors navigate volatile conditions and stay ahead of the curve.
So, let’s break down his top investing lessons and see how we can apply them to build wealth, manage risks, and seize big market opportunities!
Raoul Pal’s Key Investment Strategies
Macro Investing Approach – Pal focuses on big-picture economic trends, analyzing global debt cycles, interest rates, and monetary policies to predict major market movements.
Early Crypto Adoption – He was one of the early institutional investors to bet big on Bitcoin and Ethereum, predicting their rise as alternative financial systems.
Liquidity Matters More Than Fundamentals – Pal believes that liquidity in financial markets drives asset prices more than just company fundamentals.
Bet on Big Trends Early – He identified major shifts in technology, crypto, and decentralized finance (DeFi) before mainstream adoption.
Understanding Market Cycles – He studies boom-and-bust cycles to anticipate major economic shifts and position himself accordingly.
Diversification with a Focus on Asymmetry – Pal emphasizes investments with high potential upside and limited downside risks, such as Bitcoin and tech stocks.
Raoul Pal’s Bold Market Predictions
Bitcoin to Reach $1M? – Pal has predicted massive upside potential for Bitcoin, citing global money printing and institutional adoption.
The Rise of Digital Assets – He believes that crypto, NFTs, and tokenized assets will be a major part of the financial future.
US Dollar Liquidity Crisis – Pal has warned about potential economic instability caused by excessive debt and monetary easing.
What Traders Can Learn from Raoul Pal
Follow the Macro Trends – Pay attention to global interest rates, central bank policies, and economic cycles to position yourself ahead of big moves.
Be Open to New Asset Classes – Consider crypto, technology, and emerging financial innovations for long-term wealth creation.
Risk Management is Key – Even with bold predictions, Pal manages risk and focuses on asymmetrical returns.
Adopt a Long-Term Perspective – Major trends don’t happen overnight, so patience is crucial when investing in macro shifts.
Conclusion
Raoul Pal’s macro investing strategies provide valuable insights into navigating global markets, identifying emerging trends, and managing risk effectively. His focus on big-picture thinking has helped him stay ahead of market shifts, making him a legend in the world of investing.
Do you follow macro trends in your trading? Let me know in the comments! 👇
Wealthcreation
Philip Fisher: The Man Who Revolutionized Growth InvestingHello Traders! Today, let’s talk about Philip Fisher , one of the greatest investors of all time and the pioneer of growth investing . His book "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" is a must-read for anyone serious about the stock market. Let’s dive into his key investment principles and how they can help us make smarter trading decisions!
Philip Fisher’s Key Investing Principles
Invest in Companies with Strong Management – Fisher believed that a company’s leadership plays a crucial role in long-term success. Look for visionary leaders with a solid track record.
Focus on Long-Term Growth – Instead of chasing short-term gains, invest in businesses with strong growth potential and a competitive edge.
Scuttlebutt Method – Gather information from various sources ( suppliers, employees, customers ) to gain deeper insights into a company’s fundamentals.
Don’t Diversify Too Much – Fisher advocated for focused investing , where you put your money in a few high-quality stocks rather than spreading it thin.
Ignore Market Noise – Avoid making decisions based on daily price fluctuations. Instead, focus on a company’s long-term fundamentals .
Patience Pays Off – Great investments take time to grow. If you’ve picked the right stock, hold onto it and let compounding do its magic!
Philip Fisher’s strategies remain highly relevant even today, especially for investors looking to build long-term wealth .
Do you follow any of his principles in your trading? Let me know in the comments!
Indian Energy Exchange Ltd - Fundamentals & TechnicalsINDIAN ENERGY EXCHANGE LIMITED (IEX) is the first and largest energy exchange in India providing a nationwide, automated trading platform for physical delivery of electricity, Renewable Energy Certificates and Energy Saving Certificates. The exchange platform enables efficient price discovery and increases the accessibility and transparency of the power market in India while also enhancing the speed and efficiency of trade execution.
Let’s look at some facts and figure of the company:
Fundamentals:
> It is a small cap company with a market cap of Rs. 10,786 Cr.
> The company have ROCE - 60.4% and ROE - 46.7% which is very impressive.
> Stock P/E is at 50.5 which makes the valuation a little costlier.
> The company has grown on an average rate of 16% over last 10 years.
> It is almost a debt free company that is great about it.
> Topline and bottomline both very impressive.
> FIIs and DIIs have good among of holding in the company and they have also increased their stake on year on year basis.
Technicals:
> Stock looking very good on chart, major long term trend is in uptrend.
> Trading above 100 and 200 DMAs.
> Stock is retracing a little in short term which is expected as it has given huge runup continuously since Jan 21.
> It is clear from volume at the bottom that lot of accumulation is going on in the company.
Considering all the points mentioned above it is clear that this is a fundamentally very strong company with good technicals.
Fresh Buy - As the stock is retracing in short term, wait for sometime, let it come down, take the support, buy on trend reversal (when comes in uptrend again) which is expected to happen in the zone of Rs.335–340.
Old Buy - HOLD
Q&A_ How Mr. Vijay Kedia made fortune in Cera SanitarywarePlease read it carefully
In 2004 and 2005, Mr. Vijay Kedia identified and invested in three such shares (Atul auto, Aegis logistics, Cera Sanitaryware) which appreciated more than 100 times in next 10 to 12 years.
Q: Who is Mr. Vijay Kedia?
A: Mr. Vijay Kedia is one of the ace investors from India, who mostly invests in mid-cap Indian stocks.
Cera Sanitaryware:-
Q: Cera Sanitaryware has given almost 100 fold return. How?
A: Well, following is the table of PBT (profit before tax) along with share price as on 01st April of each and every financial year (for the last 17 years).
Year PBT (in Crores) Share Price (in Rs)
2004 |2.63 |12.8
2005 |3.98 |29.8
2006 |8.96 |87.25
2007 |13.98 |123.5
2008 |15.53 |121
2009 |19.90 |53.8
2010 |29.89 |251.5
2011 |41.52 |162
2012 |48.50 |233
2013 |67.81 |450
2014 |82.40 |870
2015 |100.93 |2490
2016 |129.46 |1825
2017 |155.82 |2970
2018 |154.44 |3400
2019 |180.17 |3000
2020 |140.61 |2250
You can see that the profit of FY 2004 (which was Rs 2.63 crores) has been increased 68 times (to Rs 180.17 crores) in the FY 2019. So as the share price (Rs 12.8 per share to Rs 3000 per share in 2019).
Q: So, at what price Mr. Vijay Kedia bought shares of Cera?
A: I searched the internet but didn’t found the actual price he bought Cera at. Therefore let’s take closing price for FY 2005 (which is Rs 30 approx.). He had around 405,248 shares (as on quarter ending Sep 2011)
Q: So the profit before tax has been increased 68 times and share price increased 100 times? Why?
A: There are mainly two ways a shareholder make money. One is appreciation in the share price over time and other is dividend paid annually or quarterly.
Cera Sanitaryware has paid on an average 105% dividend on the (face value Rs 5) since last 17 years.
Q: Share price has fallen aggressively in year 2009. Why?
A: It was due to subprime loan mortgage crisis of the year 2008 (market crash).
Conclusion:-
Mr. Vijay Kedia made fortune in Cera Sanitaryware with his strong perseverance. Strong fundamentals and growth of Cera made this possible.
Disclaimer: Investment in securities markets are subject to market risks. Please do your own analysis and risk assessment before investing.