Wyckoff
SGX nifty Wyckoff accumulationThe SGX NIFTY appears to be in a period of accumulation, according to the Wyckoff method of technical analysis. This pattern is characterized by a trading range in which there is a buildup of buying pressure, as evidenced by a series of higher lows and a lack of significant selling pressure. Based on this analysis, it is likely that the NIFTY will experience a strong upward move in the near future. However, it is important to note that technical analysis is not an exact science and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's important to do your own research and use this analysis as one piece of information among many when making investment decisions.
Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern Observed in Bitcoin MarketRecent analysis of the bitcoin market reveals that the cryptocurrency is currently forming a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, as indicated by schematic 4. This is a bullish signal for the market, indicating that accumulation of the asset is taking place before a potential upward price movement.
Volume price analysis & Volume Divergence Cheat sheetWhat makes volume price analysis so crucial?
Volume and price analysis play a major role in trading and investing. Volume analysis helps traders and investors identify whether there is significant interest in a particular security. It also helps to identify potential buying and selling pressure, which can be useful in predicting future price movements. Price analysis helps to identify trends and price patterns, which can be useful in making trading and investing decisions. Volume and price analysis are important tools that can be used to spot trading opportunities and make sound decisions.
2 important things to keep in mind when analysing volume:
1. An increase in volume shows that market players are eager to participate in the developing market activity and want to see the price move higher in an uptrend or lower in a downtrend and are willing to buy higher in an uptrend or sell lower in a downtrend.
2. A drop in volume shows that traders are less interested in seeing prices rise in an uptrend or fall in a downtrend and are more eager to purchase lower in an upswing and sell higher in a downtrend.
Volume Divergence:
It is essential to check whether price and volume patterns are similar when comparing them. In that case, there is a good chance that the trend will continue. A volume divergence occurs when price and volume diverge, which indicates that the underlying trend may not be as strong.
According to my observations, whenever a stock is trading at a high volume, it seems to strongly trend either upward or downward. Here are some important concepts in volume price analysis:
1.When the price of a stock rises with increased volume, it indicates that the bull trend is stronger and buyers are interested, and this is a trend continuation signal.
2. If the stock price rises but volume decreases, it indicates that the bull trend is weakening and may reverse, and buyers are not interested. Price and volume divergence suggest a trend reversal.
3. If the price is falling while the volume is increasing, it indicates that the bearish trend is quite strong and sellers are active.
4. if the price is falling and the volume is decreasing, it indicates that the bearish trend is weakening and will soon reverse, signifying divergence between price and volume and a trend reversal.
Top and Bottoms: Price and Volume IndicationsHi, I personally look for following scenarios while identifying potential tops and bottoms and it works most of the times.
For tops:
High volume bars with very little progress on the upside
Exceptionally wide bars with very high volume
For bottoms:
High volume bars with little progress on the downside
Exceptionally wide bars with very high volume
This might sound confusing at first instance but it’s a very simple concept. Let us understand with the help of an example.
Adani transmission had a very sharp rally of 125% for approx. four months. But let’s see how this rally ended.
Notice very high volume indicating too much effort but the day had very little progress on the upside. Have you ever thought why this is so? Obviously due to sellers. Someone is stepping on it selling huge in a euphoric rally. This weakened the stocks.
Immediately after few days of this candle the stock made new high accompanied by a Doji. This is the first day in the entire 4month rally that it had a very high volume on a red day. Remember, we already had a weakness discussed above and this one was just a timely addition to this.
The stock lost buying interest after these two events. What may happen if buyers are not interested in a stock? Selling, right? Unfortunately, the reaction was very sharp and halted near a prior resistance level 3000, which is also a 50% retracement of the 4month rally.
Notice very high volume which I have labelled as stopping volume. Wide candles and huge volume again stopped the bearish rally. I won’t buy high volume down bars unless they are tested which it did with a lesser supply. It means that most sellers are out of this stock and not much selling left (at least for now).
The stock has since been trading in a range of 300-400 points. This strength (retests and hold) discussed above may hold the stock above 3000 for a push on the upside.
Do not consider this as a tip. This is just a concept that I wanted to share. Please apply your due diligence before hitting the buy button 😉
Thanks for reading
Now you know what do..hit 🚀🚀🚀 and enjoy trading.
Why do I think the IT index is going to rally soon?Hi all, hope you guys are doing well.
Over the last 2 months, we have seen a great rally in the majority of the indices, except one - The IT index. Read this post to find out why I think IT is going to pump soon!
1. The IT index has been strongly underperforming the benchmark as well as all other sectoral indices for the last few months. I have taken the June lows as a reference because the market started rallying from there onwards. Observe how the IT index is lagging far behind all other indices.
2. In the last few days, the IT index has been strongly improving, suggesting a mean reversion towards the benchmark index - Nifty. Notice the angle of the curve. On the other hand, all other indices seem to be more or less flat. If the market is able to consolidate the gains and maintain the bullish to sideways narrative, the IT index can really perform well in the coming weeks.
3. This is also in line with the structure. If you notice, the index seems to be forming the Wyckoff accumulation schematic in which the "Spring" seems to have been established on 15 July. Currently, the price appears to be bouncing off the range low and may head towards the range high.
4. The market structure has started to shift to the upside. As we can notice, after the formation of the low on 15 July, the price rallied higher creating a higher high. This caused a shift in the market structure.
5. If we get a move above the range high at 31k, it will confirm that the short-term structure has turned bullish and we can expect higher prices, possibly a move towards 34k.
6. All the IT stocks have been forming a similar structure. I am attaching a few charts for reference.
🔹 Wipro:
🔸 Infosys:
🔹 Mphasis:
🔸 Coforge:
Thanks for reading. I hope you found this helpful! 😊
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView
Birla Soft - Possible Breakout scenarioKey highlights:
⚡️ Market structure may soon shift.
⚡️ Wyckoff accumulation schematic but not a clean one.
⚡️ Volume expansion in the last few days.
⚡️ Attempting to push towards the range high.
⚡️ If it manages to sustain above 355, expect it to move towards 400.
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView
DXY - 4H ANALYSIS What is Wyckoff Distribution Cycle?
An accumulation cycle is typically followed by what is known as Wyckoff Distribution.
Wyckoff Distribution Schematic -
After the dominant traders have increased their position during the Wyckoff Accumulation cycle, they will sell off their positions when the asset’s price is high. The Wyckoff Distribution cycle will happen across five phases.
1. Preliminary Supply (PSY) - This phase typically occurs after a prominent price rise. Dominant traders will sell off large portions of their positions resulting in an increase in the trading volume.
2. Buying Climax (BC) - The increased supply causes retail traders to begin taking up positions. This demand causes the price to continue rising. Dominant traders can sell off th eir positions at a premium price. However, this phase relies on high demand from retail traders so that the selling off by dominant traders does not bring down the asset’s price.
3. Automatic Reaction (AR) - The end of the BC phase is marked by a price drop. This happens as fewer traders are buying up positions even though there is still a large supply available. The increased number of sell orders or supply causes the price to drop. It will eventually reach the AR level which is the lower price boundary of the Wyckoff Distribution Cycle.
4. Secondary Test (ST) - In this phase, the price rises back to the BC range. This is where traders are testing the balance of supply and demand. The top price of this test occurs when there is more supply than demand. As the price reaches the BC price range, less trading will occur.
5. Sign of Weakness, Last Point of Supply, Upthrust After Distribution (SOW, LPSY, UTAD) - The SOW occurs when the asset’s price falls near or below the initial boundaries of the respective Wyckoff Distribution Cycle. This occurs when there is more supply than demand and signals price weakness. Following the SOW is the LPSY. In this phase, traders are testing the support of the asset’s price at these lower levels. There may be a small rally, but any rallies will be difficult as the result of either too much supply or too little demand. The last possible phase is the UTAD, which is just what it sounds like. This phase of the Wyckoff Distribution Cycle is not guaranteed to occur, but if it does, it will typically occur near the end of the overall cycle. The asset’s price will increase as a result of increased demand and push the upper price boundary of the entire cycle.
Conclusion - The Wyckoff Market cycle is hotly debated in crypto circles. Some claim that the signs involved in a Wyckoff Accumulation can be seen in the market changes for certain crypto assets, and others disagree. Regardless, understanding the potential causes occurring in the market is helpful. Learning about methodologies that other traders use can prepare you for making your own trading decisions