Wyckoff
COAL INDIA| Wyckoff Events and Phases explained 🎯 TARGET 210Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice.
The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown.
Wyckoff distribution - Bitcoin Target: 37500$It seems like the Wyckoff distribution is playing out again in Bitcoin charts.
There is a confluence between the Wyckoff distribution and descending triangle pattern which gives a target of ~37500$ price within a week after which a trend reversal can be expected.
The first Wyckoff distribution happened between the start of this year and ~20th July and Line1 denotes the Support for that distribution
The one playing out currently started a week after the first one got over and is a smaller one as compared to the first one with Line2 as support.
BTC REDISTRIBUTION JULY 2021! Redistribution begins with volatility and ends with volatility. Typically a Selling Climax initiates the Redistribution process. The Redistribution process looks eerily similar to Distribution. A review of the process of Distribution could prove helpful (to study the Distribution process and schematics click here). On the ARMH case study; cover up everything to the left of the Selling Climax (SCLX) and compare to the schematics and prior Distribution examples. Note the family resemblance. The blue labeling of the SCLX, AR and ST are there to illustrate the similarities to the start of Accumulation. This is classic ‘stopping action’. The red labeling illustrates Distribution and Redistribution attributes. Note that once the stopping action is in place (primarily short covering) the footprints of Redistribution become evident.
The attempt to support ARMH takes place at the ICE. Note the series of lower price lows. This is a sign of inherent weakness and is labeled as SOW (Sign of Weakness). Once the ICE is broken there is no longer enough demand left to rally back into the prior trading range. ARMH is very vulnerable to a rapid markdown when below the ICE.
After the Climactic action at the Upthrust (UT) the volatility and price weakness become dominant. The rallies are weak, short in duration, and lack sponsorship from the C.O.
We will spend more time on the tricky business of Redistributions.
credits to....
About the author: Bruce Fraser, an industry-leading "Wyckoffian," began teaching graduate-level courses at Golden Gate University (GGU) in 1987. Working closely with the late Dr. Henry (“Hank”) Pruden, he developed curriculum for and taught many courses in GGU’s Technical Market Analysis Graduate Certificate Program, including Technical Analysis of Securities, Strategy and Implementation, Business Cycle Analysis and the Wyckoff Method.
Venky's - An Example on How Reaccumulation Works?Wyckoff studied stock movement in terms of demand and supply almost a century back.
He categorized stock movement into cycle of -
Accumulation (Oversold Zone) --> Reaccumulation (can be multiple) --> Distribution (Overbought zone) --> Redistribution --> Accumulation
Study of each phase can be a book in itself, however we here try to demonstrate how a reaccumulation can occur.
Note - This is an analysis on past and not a buying recommendation. This is purely an educational material on Wyckoff methodology.
We intend that the reader uses the concept rather than copy any trades.
Wyckoff Distribution Scheme - Catch early - Beat the Operators!A classic example of Wyckoff Distribution catching retail investors off guard in Olectra Greentech Limited over a couple of years.
It is important to analyze the same chart through different time-frames. New patterns can emerge this way!
Full Text Reference, highly recommended must-read - school.stockcharts.com
PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.
SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.
LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.