Greetings oil traders,
As you can see from the chart which is in weekly time frame, the move (INTERIM rally) is just a correction for the down trend; say for the super cycle wave (Y)
Therefore, we sure say that the current move is merely a retracement for the Super cycle wave (Y)
and the initial move (X) has been stagnated for some time at the areas of 23.6%...
Crude oil appears weak and having completed an A on downside to 43 $ and a corrective B to the up around 48$ quite likely the C down has started which should be a five wave impulse.
A break of the current trendline support at 45 $ will confirm first the fall to 43 $ and subsequently lower levels
From Last week's update -It was said that 43.60-43.80 zone to be looked for a support & bulls could rejoin for nice up & strong leg in this week from that zone-
Bang On Target -Crude Oil takes support & makes a low@43. 85 before going up -up & Away.
Last Traded Price- 47$+
Oil has bottomed in 4th wave@43$ as per my previous post
From lows@43$- It looks we have travelled the first tranche, which could finish in the zone 44.65-44.77 where the 5th wave at minor degree shall complete 61.8% of 1-3 wave distance.
As a good student of technical analysis- I still use my lessons seriously- one of the lessons I learnt few years back was...
There is a rarest of rare pattern happening in Oil as well & taken bears with surprise in current session. Likely Oil has put up a low@43$. In the last update, I expected Oil to correct in the c - wave within 4th wave & had a target of 45.50-45.70 when it was trading at 47.30$- Congo, I got that move, but was even surprised by the wave getting extended & even...
If it travels below 46.40$- Let us look for a last wave in the 4th wave in the range 45.50-45.70 from a top 49.35$ or going above 48.50$- oil could turn bullish with immediate swing low as a stop. If turns bullish now above 48.50 or going first in the zone 45.50--45.70- either ways oil is looking bullish for targets 52.50-52.70 at present.
Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
