Part 1 Candle Stick Pattern1. Introduction to Options
Financial markets have always revolved around two broad purposes—hedging risk and creating opportunity. Among the tools available, options stand out because they combine flexibility, leverage, and adaptability in a way few instruments can match. Unlike simply buying a stock or bond, an option lets you control exposure to price movements without outright ownership. This makes options both fascinating and complex.
Option trading today has exploded globally, with millions of retail and institutional traders participating daily. But to appreciate their role, we need to peel back the layers—what exactly is an option, how does it work, and why do traders and investors use them?
2. What Are Options? (Call & Put Basics)
An option is a financial derivative—meaning its value is derived from an underlying asset like a stock, index, commodity, or currency.
There are two main types:
Call Option – Gives the holder the right (not obligation) to buy the underlying at a set price (strike) before or on expiration.
Put Option – Gives the holder the right (not obligation) to sell the underlying at a set price before or on expiration.
Example: Suppose Reliance stock trades at ₹2,500. If you buy a call option with a strike price of ₹2,600 expiring in one month, you’re betting the stock will rise above ₹2,600. Conversely, if you buy a put option with a strike price of ₹2,400, you’re betting the stock will fall below ₹2,400.
The beauty lies in asymmetry: you can lose only the premium you pay, but your potential profit can be much larger.
3. Key Terminologies in Option Trading
Options trading comes with its own dictionary. Some must-know terms include:
Strike Price – Predetermined price to buy/sell underlying.
Expiration Date – Last date the option is valid.
Premium – Price paid to buy the option.
In the Money (ITM) – Option has intrinsic value (profitable if exercised immediately).
Out of the Money (OTM) – Option has no intrinsic value, only time value.
At the Money (ATM) – Strike price equals current market price.
Lot Size – Standardized quantity of underlying in each option contract.
Open Interest (OI) – Number of outstanding option contracts in the market.
Understanding these is critical before trading.
4. How Options Work in Practice
Let’s say you buy an Infosys call option with strike ₹1,500, paying ₹30 premium.
If Infosys rises to ₹1,600, your option has intrinsic value of ₹100. Profit = ₹100 – ₹30 = ₹70 per share.
If Infosys stays below ₹1,500, the option expires worthless. Loss = Premium (₹30).
Notice how a small move in stock can create a large percentage return on option, thanks to leverage.
5. Intrinsic Value vs. Time Value
Option price = Intrinsic Value + Time Value.
Intrinsic Value – Actual in-the-money amount.
Time Value – Extra premium traders pay for the possibility of future favorable movement before expiry.
Time value decreases with theta decay as expiration approaches.
6. Factors Influencing Option Pricing (The Greeks)
Options are sensitive to multiple variables. Traders rely on the Greeks to measure this sensitivity:
Delta – Rate of change in option price per unit move in underlying.
Gamma – Rate of change of delta.
Theta – Time decay; how much value option loses daily.
Vega – Sensitivity to volatility.
Rho – Impact of interest rates.
Mastering Greeks is like learning the steering controls of a car—you can’t drive well without them.
7. Types of Option Contracts
Options extend beyond equities:
Equity Options – On individual company stocks.
Index Options – On indices like Nifty, Bank Nifty, S&P 500.
Commodity Options – On crude oil, gold, natural gas.
Currency Options – On USD/INR, EUR/USD, etc.
Each market has unique dynamics, liquidity, and risks.
8. Options Market Structure
Options can be traded in two ways:
Exchange-Traded Options – Standardized, regulated, and liquid.
OTC (Over-the-Counter) Options – Customized contracts between institutions, used for hedging large exposures.
Retail traders mostly deal with exchange-traded options.
US10Y trade ideas
Retail Trading Profits: Success in the Modern Financial Market Understanding Retail Trading
Retail traders participate in financial markets primarily through brokerage accounts, online trading platforms, and mobile applications. Their decisions are often guided by technical analysis, market news, financial statements, and social trading trends. Unlike institutional traders, who have access to advanced analytical tools, high-frequency trading systems, and large capital, retail traders rely on individual research, risk management, and discipline to generate profits.
Retail trading profits are influenced by:
Market Knowledge: Understanding how markets operate, the forces driving price movements, and economic indicators.
Risk Management: Controlling losses through stop-loss orders, position sizing, and portfolio diversification.
Trading Strategy: Choosing approaches such as day trading, swing trading, trend following, or options trading.
Psychology: Maintaining emotional discipline to avoid impulsive decisions driven by fear or greed.
Key Sources of Retail Trading Profits
1. Stock Market Trading
Retail traders often focus on equity markets. Profits arise from buying undervalued stocks and selling them at higher prices or leveraging derivatives like options and futures. Retail traders can target dividends, capital gains, or a combination of both.
2. Derivatives and Options
Options and futures provide opportunities for magnified profits but also carry significant risks. Retail traders can profit from market movements without owning the underlying asset by employing strategies such as:
Call and Put Options: Speculating on price increases or decreases.
Spreads and Straddles: Hedging risk while capitalizing on volatility.
Leverage: Using borrowed capital to amplify returns, which can also amplify losses.
3. Forex Trading
Retail forex trading involves currency pairs. Traders earn profits from exchange rate fluctuations by leveraging global economic news, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments.
4. Cryptocurrency Trading
The rise of cryptocurrencies has created volatile markets with potential for high returns. Retail traders profit through short-term trading or long-term holdings, often using technical indicators to identify price patterns.
5. Commodity Trading
Gold, silver, oil, and agricultural commodities provide alternative avenues for retail trading profits. Commodity trading relies on understanding global supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic trends.
Strategies for Achieving Retail Trading Profits
1. Technical Analysis
Retail traders extensively use charts, indicators, and historical price data to predict market movements. Common tools include:
Moving Averages
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Bollinger Bands
Fibonacci Retracements
Technical analysis helps traders identify entry and exit points, momentum, and trend reversals.
2. Fundamental Analysis
This involves evaluating the intrinsic value of stocks or assets based on financial statements, earnings reports, economic indicators, and industry trends. Retail traders use fundamental analysis to make long-term investment decisions rather than short-term speculation.
3. Risk Management
Profitable retail traders focus on protecting capital. Effective strategies include:
Setting stop-loss and take-profit levels
Diversifying across asset classes
Avoiding over-leverage
Limiting exposure to single trades
4. Trading Psychology
The psychological aspect of trading is crucial for consistent profits. Retail traders must control emotions, maintain discipline, and avoid chasing losses. Successful traders develop routines, journaling practices, and mental frameworks to stay objective.
Challenges to Retail Trading Profits
Despite the opportunities, retail trading is fraught with challenges:
High Competition: Retail traders compete with institutional investors who have better tools, information, and capital.
Emotional Biases: Fear, greed, and overconfidence can lead to impulsive trades and losses.
Market Volatility: Unpredictable market swings can wipe out gains quickly.
Information Overload: Excessive news and social media chatter can create confusion and poor decision-making.
Overtrading: Frequent trades in search of profits often lead to higher costs and lower net returns.
Best Practices for Maximizing Retail Trading Profits
Develop a Trading Plan: Clearly define goals, risk tolerance, and strategies.
Continuous Learning: Stay updated with market trends, technical tools, and financial news.
Use Demo Accounts: Practice strategies without risking real capital.
Leverage Technology: Use algorithmic tools, trading apps, and analytics to enhance decision-making.
Focus on Discipline: Stick to your plan, control emotions, and maintain realistic profit expectations.
Regular Review: Analyze past trades to learn from mistakes and refine strategies.
Conclusion
Retail trading profits are achievable, but they require a combination of knowledge, strategy, discipline, and risk management. While the potential for financial gain is significant, the challenges are equally formidable. By understanding the markets, employing structured strategies, managing risks, and cultivating strong trading psychology, retail traders can navigate market complexities and improve the probability of long-term profitability.
Global Market Shifts1. Introduction
Global markets are dynamic ecosystems where capital, goods, services, and information flow across borders. Shifts in these markets represent changes in patterns of trade, investment, currency valuation, risk appetite, and economic influence among countries or regions. Understanding these shifts is crucial for investors, policymakers, and traders because they directly influence portfolio strategies, national economic stability, and global financial connectivity.
Global market shifts can be sudden, triggered by geopolitical events, technological breakthroughs, or crises, or they can be gradual, influenced by demographic trends, policy reforms, and shifts in global supply-demand balances. These shifts impact equities, bonds, commodities, foreign exchange, and digital assets, creating opportunities and risks in both short-term trading and long-term investment strategies.
2. Historical Perspective of Global Market Shifts
2.1 Pre-20th Century Shifts
The concept of global markets is not new. Historical shifts can be traced to:
The Age of Exploration (15th–17th century): European expansion opened global trade routes, creating early financial centers in Amsterdam and London.
Industrial Revolution (18th–19th century): Mass production and technological innovation shifted economic power to industrialized nations. Capital markets expanded to fund infrastructure and factories.
Colonial Trade: Commodities like sugar, cotton, and spices became globally traded, influencing global capital flows and wealth distribution.
2.2 Early 20th Century
Interwar Period: Post-WWI reconstruction caused capital flows from the US to Europe. The 1929 stock market crash highlighted the interconnectedness of global financial systems.
Post-WWII Era: Establishment of Bretton Woods institutions (IMF, World Bank) stabilized currencies and encouraged multilateral trade. The US dollar emerged as the global reserve currency, shifting financial power toward the United States.
2.3 Late 20th Century Shifts
Globalization and Trade Liberalization: The 1980s and 1990s saw a surge in cross-border investments, driven by deregulation, technology, and emerging markets (China, India).
Financial Crises: Events like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2008 Global Financial Crisis reshaped market confidence, risk management practices, and regulatory frameworks worldwide.
3. Drivers of Global Market Shifts
Global market shifts are driven by a combination of economic, technological, geopolitical, and behavioral factors. Understanding these drivers is crucial for predicting trends and managing risks.
3.1 Economic Drivers
Monetary Policy: Interest rate decisions by central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ) influence capital flows and currency valuations, causing global shifts in investment and trade patterns.
Fiscal Policy: Government spending, taxation, and public debt impact domestic growth, influencing foreign investment.
Inflation & Deflation: High inflation reduces real returns on bonds and equities, causing shifts toward commodities or alternative assets.
Global Trade Dynamics: Trade agreements, tariffs, and sanctions alter supply chains and capital allocation across regions.
3.2 Technological Drivers
Digital Transformation: Automation, AI, blockchain, and fintech innovations reshape global trading, payments, and investment platforms.
High-Frequency Trading (HFT): Algorithmic trading exploits price discrepancies across global markets, accelerating the speed of capital shifts.
Data Availability: Real-time global economic data enables investors to react instantly, increasing volatility and market interconnectedness.
3.3 Geopolitical Drivers
Wars and Conflicts: Conflicts disrupt supply chains, commodity flows, and investor confidence.
Diplomacy and Sanctions: Trade restrictions or sanctions shift market focus toward alternative trading partners.
Political Stability: Stable governments attract foreign investment, while instability triggers capital flight.
3.4 Behavioral and Psychological Drivers
Investor Sentiment: Fear and greed cycles influence global capital allocation and risk appetite.
Herd Behavior: Collective reactions to news or trends can magnify market shifts, causing bubbles or crashes.
Speculation: Short-term speculative activity, especially in currencies and commodities, can exacerbate market swings.
4. Types of Global Market Shifts
4.1 Currency Shifts
Fluctuations in exchange rates impact global trade and investment. Examples include:
Dollar Strength/Weakness: The USD’s dominance affects emerging markets’ debt sustainability.
Currency Crises: Rapid devaluations in countries like Turkey or Argentina can trigger regional financial instability.
4.2 Equity Market Shifts
Sectoral Rotation: Global investment often rotates between sectors based on macroeconomic trends (e.g., tech vs. commodities).
Emerging Market Surges: Markets like China, India, or Brazil attract capital during periods of rapid growth.
Market Corrections: Large-scale corrections ripple through global markets, especially during crises.
4.3 Commodity Market Shifts
Oil & Gas: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East or supply disruptions cause global energy price shocks.
Metals & Agriculture: Changing demand from industrializing nations or climate events influence commodity markets.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver act as hedges during currency depreciation or inflation.
4.4 Bond Market Shifts
Interest Rate Changes: Global bond yields react to central bank policies.
Flight-to-Safety Movements: During crises, capital shifts from equities to sovereign bonds in stable economies.
4.5 Digital Asset Shifts
Cryptocurrencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) introduce new dimensions in cross-border payments and speculative flows, often moving faster than traditional assets.
5. Mechanisms of Global Market Shifts
5.1 Capital Flows
Global capital shifts through foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investments, and cross-border loans. Key mechanisms include:
Equity Investment: Buying stocks in foreign markets.
Bond Purchases: Sovereign or corporate bonds attract global investors seeking yields.
Venture Capital & Private Equity: Funding emerging tech and startups drives long-term shifts.
5.2 Trade Shifts
Changes in import/export patterns directly impact currency strength, commodity prices, and equity markets.
Regional trade agreements (e.g., USMCA, RCEP) can reroute capital and investment priorities.
5.3 Technological Interconnectivity
Digital trading platforms, APIs, and HFT algorithms accelerate the speed and scale of global shifts.
Real-time news and analytics platforms make global markets reactive to small events.
5.4 Speculative Movements
Hedge funds and institutional traders use leverage to amplify global market shifts.
Speculative bubbles can cause temporary but impactful disruptions in asset prices.
6. Case Studies of Major Global Market Shifts
6.1 The 2008 Global Financial Crisis
Triggered by US subprime mortgage defaults.
Resulted in a global credit crunch, massive equity declines, and sovereign debt crises.
Shifted investment toward safer assets and caused long-term regulatory reforms.
6.2 COVID-19 Pandemic
Global lockdowns disrupted supply chains, commodity flows, and labor markets.
Accelerated technology adoption and digital finance.
Triggered massive central bank interventions, leading to low interest rates globally.
6.3 US-China Trade War (2018–2020)
Tariffs and sanctions caused supply chain rerouting and increased investment in alternative markets.
Global markets reacted with sectoral shifts, affecting technology, manufacturing, and agriculture.
6.4 Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022–2025)
Energy and commodity markets experienced historic volatility.
Shifted global energy trade toward renewables and alternative suppliers.
Increased defense spending in Europe influenced equity and bond markets.
7. Implications for Stakeholders
7.1 Investors
Must diversify across regions, sectors, and asset classes.
Require active monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical risks.
Can capitalize on emerging market growth or sectoral rotations.
7.2 Traders
High-frequency and algorithmic traders exploit short-term market inefficiencies.
Currency and commodity traders must track global capital flows and central bank policies.
News trading strategies become more critical in volatile environments.
7.3 Policymakers
Need to anticipate capital flight and currency volatility.
Must coordinate with international institutions to stabilize markets during crises.
Regulatory reforms can shape long-term market resilience and investor confidence.
7.4 Corporates
Supply chain disruptions necessitate alternative sourcing strategies.
Foreign exchange volatility affects revenue and profit margins.
Investment planning must account for global economic cycles and market shifts.
8. Emerging Trends Shaping Future Global Market Shifts
8.1 Rise of Emerging Markets
Countries like India, Vietnam, and Nigeria attract FDI due to growth potential.
Shifts capital from traditional power centers (US, EU) to these new hubs.
8.2 Digital Assets and Fintech
Cryptocurrencies, CBDCs, and blockchain-based platforms enable faster, cross-border capital movements.
Decentralized finance may reduce reliance on traditional banking channels.
8.3 Climate Change and ESG Investing
Green finance, carbon trading, and sustainability-linked investments are influencing global capital allocation.
Traditional energy sectors may see declining investments, while renewable energy surges.
8.4 Geopolitical Realignments
Regional conflicts, trade blocs, and shifting alliances (e.g., US–EU–Asia dynamics) will continue to drive market shifts.
Energy independence, defense spending, and technological self-sufficiency influence investment flows.
8.5 AI and Automation
Artificial intelligence accelerates market analysis, predictive modeling, and trading execution.
Could increase volatility but also enhance risk management.
9. Challenges in Navigating Global Market Shifts
Volatility: Rapid shifts can erode capital and destabilize portfolios.
Information Overload: Massive real-time data streams make it difficult to separate noise from meaningful signals.
Policy Uncertainty: Sudden changes in regulations, sanctions, or trade policies create unpredictability.
Technological Disruption: Markets must adapt to fintech innovations, automated trading, and digital currencies.
Climate & ESG Risks: Environmental crises and regulations may cause unexpected sectoral disruptions.
10. Conclusion
Global market shifts are a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, technological, and behavioral forces. They can be incremental or sudden, affecting currencies, equities, commodities, bonds, and digital assets. Historical crises demonstrate the interconnected nature of markets, while emerging trends highlight the importance of technology, sustainability, and global cooperation.
For investors, traders, corporates, and policymakers, understanding these shifts is no longer optional—it is essential. Effective strategies require real-time information, diversified portfolios, risk management, and a forward-looking approach that anticipates structural changes in the global economy.
By studying past shifts and monitoring ongoing developments, market participants can navigate volatility, capitalize on opportunities, and mitigate risks in an increasingly interconnected financial world.
PCR Trading Strategies1. The Psychology of Option Trading
Options magnify emotions: greed (unlimited gains) and fear (time decay, sudden loss). Many traders lose due to overleveraging, chasing cheap OTM options, or not respecting stop-loss. Psychological discipline is as vital as technical knowledge.
2. Option Chain Analysis
An option chain shows all available strikes, premiums, OI (open interest), IV, etc. Traders analyze max pain, OI build-up, and put-call ratio (PCR) to gauge market sentiment. Option chains are powerful tools for directional and volatility analysis.
3. Role of Market Makers in Options
Market makers provide liquidity by quoting bid-ask spreads. They profit from spreads and hedging but ensure smoother trading. Without them, option spreads would widen, making it harder for retail traders to enter/exit efficiently.
4. Index Options vs Stock Options
Index Options (e.g., Nifty, Bank Nifty): Cash-settled, high liquidity, lower manipulation risk.
Stock Options: Physical settlement (delivery), less liquid, but higher potential returns.
Retail traders prefer index options; institutions often hedge with stock options.
5. Option Writing as a Business
Many professional traders treat option writing like a business: selling high IV options, hedging risk, managing spreads. Profits come steadily from time decay, but big moves can wipe out capital if risk isn’t managed with stop-loss or hedges.
6. Options and Event Trading
Events like earnings, RBI policy, budget, elections, or global news drastically affect IV. Traders buy straddles/strangles pre-event, and sellers wait for IV crush post-event. Understanding event volatility cycles is key.
7. Taxation of Options Trading in India
Profits from option trading are treated as business income under Indian tax law. Traders must maintain proper records, pay GST in some cases, and file ITR with audit if turnover exceeds limits. This is often ignored by beginners.
8. Technology and Algo in Options
With algo trading, institutions dominate options using complex models (volatility arbitrage, delta-hedging). Retail traders now use option analytics platforms, scanners, and automation tools to compete. Speed and data-driven execution matter more today.
9. Common Mistakes in Option Trading
Buying cheap OTM lottery tickets.
Ignoring IV crush.
Selling naked options without hedge.
Overtrading on expiry days.
Neglecting stop-loss and money management.
Most retail losses come from these errors.
10. The Future of Option Trading
Option trading is growing rapidly in India with weekly expiries, retail participation, and technology. Innovations like zero-day options (0DTE) in the US may come to India. Education, discipline, and structured strategies will define success. The future promises wider accessibility but higher competition as retail meets institutional algos
Part 3 Institutional Trading Role of Options in Hedging
Options are commonly used to hedge portfolios against adverse market movements:
Protective Put for Stocks: Investors holding equities can buy puts to protect against downside risks.
Portfolio Insurance: Institutions use options to safeguard large portfolios against market crashes.
Income Generation: Covered call writing allows long-term holders to earn additional income while maintaining exposure.
Hedging with options is especially popular in volatile markets where risk management is critical.
Pricing Models and Market Mechanics
Professional traders often rely on option pricing models, like the Black-Scholes model, to determine fair premiums. These models factor in:
Current price of the underlying asset
Strike price
Time to expiration
Volatility
Risk-free interest rate
Options markets operate through exchanges with standardized contracts. Market makers provide liquidity, and the bid-ask spread reflects supply-demand dynamics. In OTC markets, options can be customized to suit specific investor requirements.
Advantages of Options Trading
Leverage: Control a larger position for smaller capital.
Flexibility: Strategies for bullish, bearish, or neutral markets.
Hedging: Effective risk management tool.
Profit in Any Market: Can profit in rising, falling, or sideways markets with the right strategy.
Defined Risk (for Buyers): Limited to premium paid.
Challenges and Considerations
Complexity: Options require understanding of multiple factors affecting pricing.
Time Sensitivity: Options lose value as expiration nears.
Volatility Risk: Price swings can be unpredictable.
Liquidity Issues: Not all options have sufficient trading volume.
Psychological Pressure: Rapid movements and leverage can lead to emotional decisions.
US 10Y Yield – Wave 4 Pause Before the Final SurgeDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
The Setup
The US 10-year yield has been consolidating after topping near 5.021%. Price action since then has formed a contracting structure that looks very much like a Wave 4 triangle .
At present, yields hover near 4.0% — a crucial pivot.
Triangle view: Wave 4 is complete, setting the stage for Wave 5 higher.
Flat view: If yields break below 4.0%, Wave 4 may stretch deeper into a flat correction, potentially testing 3.6–3.7%.
Either way, the Elliott script points to one more advance: Wave 5 up .
What Wave 5 Could Mean
If the US 10-year yield really enters Wave ⑤ up, buckle up:
Bond prices tank → inverse relation, so Treasuries bleed.
Equities feel the heat → higher yields = expensive valuations, especially for growth stocks.
Dollar flexes → global FX could see USD strength.
Borrowing costs bite → mortgages, corporate loans, government debt servicing all tighten.
In short: Wave ⑤ = a macro “stress test .”
Why India Should Care
A breakout in US yields rarely stays a US-only story. For India, it means:
FII outflows as global funds chase safer US returns
INR under pressure , increasing imported inflation risks
Indian bond yields rising , even without RBI action
Equity market stress , especially in IT and rate-sensitive sectors
Final Thoughts
The triangle scenario points to an imminent breakout above 5.0%. A deeper flat only delays it. For traders and investors, this is the chart to watch — because Wave 5 in US yields isn’t just a bond market story, it’s a global macro shockwave .
Part 3 Trading Master ClassIntroduction
Options trading is one of the most fascinating and versatile aspects of the financial markets. Unlike stocks, which give ownership in a company, or bonds, which provide fixed income, options are derivative instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset such as stocks, indices, commodities, or currencies. They give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date.
Because of this unique characteristic, options allow traders and investors to design strategies that suit a wide range of market conditions—whether bullish, bearish, or neutral. Through careful strategy selection, one can aim for limited risk with unlimited upside, hedge existing positions, or even profit from sideways markets where prices don’t move much.
This article explores options trading strategies in detail. We’ll cover the building blocks of options, common strategies, advanced combinations, and risk management. By the end, you’ll have a strong foundation to understand how professional traders use options to manage portfolios and generate returns.
Risk Management in Options Trading
Options carry significant risks if misused. Successful traders emphasize:
Position Sizing: Never risk too much on one trade.
Diversification: Spread across multiple strategies/assets.
Stop-Loss & Adjustments: Exit losing trades early.
Implied Volatility (IV) Awareness: High IV increases premiums; selling strategies may be better.
Part 2 Master Candlestick PatternAdvanced Strategies for Experienced Traders
If you’ve mastered the basics, here are some advanced setups:
Bull Call Spread → Buy 1 Call, Sell higher strike Call.
Bear Put Spread → Buy 1 Put, Sell lower strike Put.
Butterfly Spread → Profit from low volatility (range-bound market).
Calendar Spread → Buy long-term option, sell short-term option.
These strategies help balance risk vs reward.
SEBI Regulations & Margins
In India, SEBI ensures options trading is safe:
Option sellers must keep high margins.
Brokers must collect upfront premiums.
Intraday exposure limits are monitored.
This protects retail traders from excessive risks.
Bear Flag materializing in US 1O Year Yield (US10Y)US 10 Year yield suggests markets are moving towards risk off environment.
The fundamental causes for yields to fall are complex and difficult to disentangle - geopolitics, macro reasons, uncertainty, inflation risk, recession risk etc.
This will further put pressure on Stock Markets (equities).
The current trend looks bearish for US10Y.
Trade Safe
$US10YR - Potential Double Head & Shoulders Pattern Forming FPMARKETS:US10YR - Potential double head and shoulders pattern on the Daily Chart. This could align with Trump's lower rates initiative. We are seeing some weakness coming into employment data, seems like CPI and PPI are showing progress on inflation. The smaller Head & Shoulders pattern has a measured move to around 4.23% right at the 200 SMA (yellow) and the larger Head & Shoulders pattern measured move is 3.70%. This could take several months to play out since this is a daily chart. All eyes on this Friday's PCE and Non-farm payroll first week of February. I think we will have favorable PCE numbers YoY in February and March which could help the fed take their eyes off inflation and focus on jobs numbers, allowing them to cut. The market is pricing in 1.5 cuts this year. I think we will see 3-4 cuts.
US10Y Analysis : Possibility of higher for longer
Historical Context and Key Observations :
From its peak in 1981 (~15%), the US10Y yield entered a multi-decade downtrend, consistently staying below its 20-month, 50-month, and 200-month moving averages due to disinflationary pressures and accommodative monetary policies. However, after reaching historic lows (~0.5%) in 2020 amid COVID-19-induced easing, the yield saw a sharp reversal, breaking above these key averages for the first time in over four decades, signaling a potential structural shift. Currently, the yield remains firmly above the 20M (4.19%), 50M (3.07%), and 200M (2.57%) moving averages, with their steep upward slopes highlighting the strong bullish momentum.
Technical Analysis :
The US10Y yield has shown a strong bullish reversal, breaking above the 20M, 50M, and 200M moving averages for the first time in over four decades, with the 20M forming a "golden cross" above the 50M and 200M, signaling robust momentum. The MACD is in positive territory with a rising histogram, further confirming the long-term trend reversal since 2021. Key support levels lie at the 50M (~3.07%) and 200M (~2.57%) moving averages, while resistance may emerge near the psychological 5% level, last seen consistently in 2007. Despite the parabolic rise from 2020 lows, consolidation or a pullback may occur before the uptrend resumes.
Fundamental Factors Driving Yields :
The US10Y yield has reversed its decades-long downtrend since 2020, driven by inflationary pressures from post-pandemic recovery, fiscal stimulus, and supply chain disruptions, prompting aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and expectations of "higher for longer" policies. Strong economic growth and resilient labor markets have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries, while increased U.S. debt issuance and global liquidity tightening further contribute to rising yields. Currently above key moving averages (20M, 50M, and 200M), the yield signals strong bullish momentum, though near-term consolidation or pullbacks may occur before the uptrend resumes.
Conclusion :
The US10Y yield appears to be in the early stages of a structural shift from its decades-long downtrend. Key technical signals, including the break above long-term moving averages and bullish momentum in the MACD, suggest that the upward trend may continue. However, near-term consolidation is possible, especially given the sharpness of the recent rise.
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Case: Sustained economic resilience, sticky inflation, or additional Fed rate hikes could push yields toward 5% or beyond.
2. Bearish Case: A dovish Fed pivot, recession risks, or flight-to-safety events could see yields retesting support at the 50M and 200M moving averages.
US10Yrs. Bond Yield parallel channel. Nifty up move confirmationUS Government 10Yrs. Bond Yield trading in parallel channel. After fake break out it come down in channel again. As per chart it may correct up to 4%,3.79% and 3.06% level soon.
It has inverse relation with index, so nifty and bank nifty may give good up move in next 2-3 months as both charts suggested also the same.
US 10 YEAR YIELD NEXT WHATUS 10 year yield now encountering 2 heavy supply zones.once it is taken out then it may target my SL HUNTING LINE at 4.68.
only if it reverses below the blue line & break the TL and atleast stays for 1/2 days it will become bearsih.
but again support zone is at 4.388.
For me it will go and touch the SL hunting line first.
lets see
#US10Y YIELD - TESTING MAOR SUPPORT - YIELD PAIN STILL LEFT?????As we can see, US 10y yield is retesting major support, which was held last time. If this holds then we are about to retest the recent highs in coming months. Major resistance 5.00. Break below 3.2 levels will start new downtrend otherwise we are heading much higher.
Fingers Crossed!!! I feel we are in for a bumpy ride ahead.
Recession Risks and Market CautionIn July 2022, we saw the yield curve (US 10-year Treasury vs the US 2-year Treasury) go negative. It’s been in that zone ever since, and now, as we approach the two-year mark, we’re on the brink of positive territory.
An inverted yield curve has a well-documented history of signalling recession. When you factor in the PMI readings dropping below 50, rising unemployment rates, and NASDAQ already in correction mode with a 10% drop from its peak, the message is clear.
So, what’s the takeaway? The indicators are pointing towards a potential recession and bear market. It’s wise to proceed with caution as these signals suggest we might be heading into choppy waters.
A bond market rally is now clearAfter rising inside a channel, the US 10-year bond yields are breaking the rising channel for wave B on the downside. This confirms the start of wave C down for bond yields. In terms of levels, it means eventually going back to maybe 3% in the US 10-year note, as wave C will break the neckline at 3.8%. So this will be a multi-month decline in bond yields, resulting in a long bond rally. We broke the rising channel at 4.45% so that is the key resistance here.