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US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US 10Y Yield – Wave 4 Pause Before the Final SurgeDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. The Setup The US 10-year yield has been consolidating after topping near 5.021%. Price action since then has formed a contracting structure that looks very much like a Wave 4 triangle . At present, yields hover near 4.0% — a crucial pivot. Triangle view: Wave 4 is complete, setting the stage for Wave 5 higher. Flat view: If yields break below 4.0%, Wave 4 may stretch deeper into a flat correction, potentially testing 3.6–3.7%. Either way, the Elliott script points to one more advance: Wave 5 up . What Wave 5 Could Mean If the US 10-year yield really enters Wave ⑤ up, buckle up: Bond prices tank → inverse relation, so Treasuries bleed. Equities feel the heat → higher yields = expensive valuations, especially for growth stocks. Dollar flexes → global FX could see USD strength. Borrowing costs bite → mortgages, corporate loans, government debt servicing all tighten. In short: Wave ⑤ = a macro “stress test .” Why India Should Care A breakout in US yields rarely stays a US-only story. For India, it means: FII outflows as global funds chase safer US returns INR under pressure , increasing imported inflation risks Indian bond yields rising , even without RBI action Equity market stress , especially in IT and rate-sensitive sectors Final Thoughts The triangle scenario points to an imminent breakout above 5.0%. A deeper flat only delays it. For traders and investors, this is the chart to watch — because Wave 5 in US yields isn’t just a bond market story, it’s a global macro shockwave .
TVC:US10YLong
by WaveXplorer
Part 3 Trading Master ClassIntroduction Options trading is one of the most fascinating and versatile aspects of the financial markets. Unlike stocks, which give ownership in a company, or bonds, which provide fixed income, options are derivative instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset such as stocks, indices, commodities, or currencies. They give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date. Because of this unique characteristic, options allow traders and investors to design strategies that suit a wide range of market conditions—whether bullish, bearish, or neutral. Through careful strategy selection, one can aim for limited risk with unlimited upside, hedge existing positions, or even profit from sideways markets where prices don’t move much. This article explores options trading strategies in detail. We’ll cover the building blocks of options, common strategies, advanced combinations, and risk management. By the end, you’ll have a strong foundation to understand how professional traders use options to manage portfolios and generate returns. Risk Management in Options Trading Options carry significant risks if misused. Successful traders emphasize: Position Sizing: Never risk too much on one trade. Diversification: Spread across multiple strategies/assets. Stop-Loss & Adjustments: Exit losing trades early. Implied Volatility (IV) Awareness: High IV increases premiums; selling strategies may be better.
TVC:US10YEducation
by SkyTradingZone
6
Part 2 Master Candlestick PatternAdvanced Strategies for Experienced Traders If you’ve mastered the basics, here are some advanced setups: Bull Call Spread → Buy 1 Call, Sell higher strike Call. Bear Put Spread → Buy 1 Put, Sell lower strike Put. Butterfly Spread → Profit from low volatility (range-bound market). Calendar Spread → Buy long-term option, sell short-term option. These strategies help balance risk vs reward. SEBI Regulations & Margins In India, SEBI ensures options trading is safe: Option sellers must keep high margins. Brokers must collect upfront premiums. Intraday exposure limits are monitored. This protects retail traders from excessive risks.
TVC:US10YEducation
by SkyTradingZone
2
$US10YR - Potential Double Head & Shoulders Pattern Forming FPMARKETS:US10YR - Potential double head and shoulders pattern on the Daily Chart. This could align with Trump's lower rates initiative. We are seeing some weakness coming into employment data, seems like CPI and PPI are showing progress on inflation. The smaller Head & Shoulders pattern has a measured move to around 4.23% right at the 200 SMA (yellow) and the larger Head & Shoulders pattern measured move is 3.70%. This could take several months to play out since this is a daily chart. All eyes on this Friday's PCE and Non-farm payroll first week of February. I think we will have favorable PCE numbers YoY in February and March which could help the fed take their eyes off inflation and focus on jobs numbers, allowing them to cut. The market is pricing in 1.5 cuts this year. I think we will see 3-4 cuts.
TVC:US10YShort
by mschultz33
US10Y Analysis : Possibility of higher for longer Historical Context and Key Observations : From its peak in 1981 (~15%), the US10Y yield entered a multi-decade downtrend, consistently staying below its 20-month, 50-month, and 200-month moving averages due to disinflationary pressures and accommodative monetary policies. However, after reaching historic lows (~0.5%) in 2020 amid COVID-19-induced easing, the yield saw a sharp reversal, breaking above these key averages for the first time in over four decades, signaling a potential structural shift. Currently, the yield remains firmly above the 20M (4.19%), 50M (3.07%), and 200M (2.57%) moving averages, with their steep upward slopes highlighting the strong bullish momentum. Technical Analysis : The US10Y yield has shown a strong bullish reversal, breaking above the 20M, 50M, and 200M moving averages for the first time in over four decades, with the 20M forming a "golden cross" above the 50M and 200M, signaling robust momentum. The MACD is in positive territory with a rising histogram, further confirming the long-term trend reversal since 2021. Key support levels lie at the 50M (~3.07%) and 200M (~2.57%) moving averages, while resistance may emerge near the psychological 5% level, last seen consistently in 2007. Despite the parabolic rise from 2020 lows, consolidation or a pullback may occur before the uptrend resumes. Fundamental Factors Driving Yields : The US10Y yield has reversed its decades-long downtrend since 2020, driven by inflationary pressures from post-pandemic recovery, fiscal stimulus, and supply chain disruptions, prompting aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and expectations of "higher for longer" policies. Strong economic growth and resilient labor markets have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries, while increased U.S. debt issuance and global liquidity tightening further contribute to rising yields. Currently above key moving averages (20M, 50M, and 200M), the yield signals strong bullish momentum, though near-term consolidation or pullbacks may occur before the uptrend resumes. Conclusion : The US10Y yield appears to be in the early stages of a structural shift from its decades-long downtrend. Key technical signals, including the break above long-term moving averages and bullish momentum in the MACD, suggest that the upward trend may continue. However, near-term consolidation is possible, especially given the sharpness of the recent rise. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Case: Sustained economic resilience, sticky inflation, or additional Fed rate hikes could push yields toward 5% or beyond. 2. Bearish Case: A dovish Fed pivot, recession risks, or flight-to-safety events could see yields retesting support at the 50M and 200M moving averages.
TVC:US10Y
by shekharvsingh1
Recession Risks and Market CautionIn July 2022, we saw the yield curve (US 10-year Treasury vs the US 2-year Treasury) go negative. It’s been in that zone ever since, and now, as we approach the two-year mark, we’re on the brink of positive territory. An inverted yield curve has a well-documented history of signalling recession. When you factor in the PMI readings dropping below 50, rising unemployment rates, and NASDAQ already in correction mode with a 10% drop from its peak, the message is clear. So, what’s the takeaway? The indicators are pointing towards a potential recession and bear market. It’s wise to proceed with caution as these signals suggest we might be heading into choppy waters.
TVC:US10YShort
by breakout_ninja
A bond market rally is now clearAfter rising inside a channel, the US 10-year bond yields are breaking the rising channel for wave B on the downside. This confirms the start of wave C down for bond yields. In terms of levels, it means eventually going back to maybe 3% in the US 10-year note, as wave C will break the neckline at 3.8%. So this will be a multi-month decline in bond yields, resulting in a long bond rally. We broke the rising channel at 4.45% so that is the key resistance here.
TVC:US10Y
by indiacharts
US 10 YEAR BOND TREND nowTREND - NUETRAL .because now at down and up TL juction. PRESENT ZONE- At DEMAND ZONE 1. FORECAST -As per ZONE once downward TL crosses and closes above At DEMAND ZONE 1 will target SUPPLY ZONE 1 at 4.643. If not will target DEMAND ZONE 2 MY TAKE - will target 4.643 the SUPPLY ZONE 1. But any news flow may change this scenoria. IMPORTANCE OF US 10 YEAR BOND is once it moves up Dollar will go up.Rupee goes down along with equity markets.so always keep track on this always.
TVC:US10YLong
by ganeshbabu6