2024 March April started a huge crash in equity market 2024 march April started a huge recession in equity market according to bond market when 10 year bond yields and 2 year bond yields curve at base line o it men's recession this economy indicator pridict right pridition back 40 year . Look at the example the greatest tech burst crash in 2000 and subprime mortgage crash 2008 and pendmic crash 2020 . This economy indicator pridict earlier this huge crash .
US10Y trade ideas
US 10 Year Bonds and Notes yield topping outA truncated 5th wave maybe developing in the US 10-year bond yields as the pattern that has developed is an expanding triangle near a double top. Positioning shows the largest short position in US bonds net across categories. The setup is for a short covering rally in bond markets to be triggered by some event along with inflation data. This is not a time to be bearish bonds or bullish yields, but the exact opposite
Will bond spike again ?Bond yield looks to have bottomed out at 1.12. Daily close abv 1.38 will start bullish HHHL structure. In such scenario , price may adance to 2.02 (minimum) on conservative slope and 2.34 - 2.60 on steep slope.
Minimum deadline as of now is 22nd Jan but if it attempts for 2.60 then deadline could extend to May 2022.
Yield spreads favor EUR longsThe spread between the 10-year US and German government bond yields has dropped below a macro bullish trendline, characterizing the widening since 2008.
In other words, the market says the era of US rates being higher than German rates is passe! And therefore, holding EUR shorts is risky.
US10Y - Looks like a high is completedUS10Y could be in at its peak in current wave cycle to stary a ABC correction.
RSI on daily is also showing divergence indicating topping out sign. The correction in US10 will be good for equities.
View will be invalid if the high 4.123 is broken and wave 5 might get extended.
User discretion!
Rounding bottom (Cup & Handle) formation breakout?? #US10YCharts show breakout of rounding bottom formation on Weekly/Monthly charts of US 10year yields. Already got monthly closing above the breakout line.
If sustains above the breakout line minimum target for 10y yield will be around 5.5/6.5 pc. If so, there will bloodbath across all asset classes. Only below 3.4/3.3 negates the idea.
Brace! Brace! Brace! If true, difficult times ahead.
Hope I'm wrong.
Happy trading
Recession Incoming? Here is what the technicals say
US10Y-TVC:US02Y
Economists: Recession incoming!
World Leaders: Recession is out of the books.
Whom to believe? Here is my analysis from a technical standpoint👇
As someone who believes in data driven decision making, the technicals point towards a recession. How so?
When the difference between the 10 year bond yield and 2 year bond yield becomes negative, it is known as an 'Inversion in bond yield curve' and this inversion has been a strong indicator in predicting recession.
Since this chart (US10Y-US02Y) started back in 1976, whenever the curve went into the negative zone, we experienced a recession shortly after.
So the question now is, are we in the negative zone? YES!
Recession incoming? Most likely yes!
To all my connections in the field of finance especially, I'd love to know your thoughts on the same below in the comments 👇
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#finance #data #recession #bonds
US10Y aheading to cross 2% this timeUS10Y has been trending in a downward channel, currently aheading towards its resistance. It acts as a leading indicator to US equity indexes and works in contrast to major benchmarks.
Disclaimer: View for Educational purpose only, not to be taken as trading/investment advice.
US10Y scaring the markets again?I do not have the detailed economic understanding of this matter but have observed that a rise in the US 10 year treasury yields leads to a overall feeling of fear and turmoil in the markets. Back in the March and April of 2021, US10Y was continuously making news as it was reaching levels of about 1.75, with commentators discussing how a test of the levels of 2 and beyond could lead to a sharp sell off in the markets. But, it failed to move past decisively beyond the 1.75 levels as market on the chart.
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Since then I have been following this ticker, US10Y corrected back to levels of around 1.12 which it failed to break below in July and August. After that it had started forming higher lows leading to bullish structure. It was consolidating just below 1.38 trying to break through it, which it finally did on the 23rd of September.
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In short, if this trend continues upward leading the US10Y to the April highs of 1.75 and beyond, we could observe the markets struggling to move ahead, also possibly correcting. It would be prudent to keep watch.
Manage risks properly and trade your plan.
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