viswaram

viswaram

Nifty Quarterly Report Today’s expiry marks the end of Q2 FY2023-24. Between 28th Jun 2023 to 28th Sep 2023 - Nifty has gained 2.89% ~ 547pts. June 28 was special as Nifty had hit a new ATH that day. It crossed the crucial resistance of 18880 then. The rally that started on 28th June ended on 20th Jul wherein Nifty hit a new ATH of 19991.85. From 21st Jul to 31st...

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BankNifty Analysis For BankNifty I had a bearish view today. The day started exceedingly well with a gap down and then a fierce 479pts ~ 1.07% fall w.r.t the previous close. Just like Nifty, BankNifty also started rallying right at 10.35. BN ended up gaining 483pts ~ 1.1% and ended the day with just -35pts loss. Just like I mentioned in the Nifty analysis above,...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart we are almost at the center point of the orange lines (support and resistance) i.e. 19562 and 19786. Nifty has to either fall below or rise above one of these lines to make the big move. Personally, I prefer if it breaks the support and falls to the 19470 levels by tomorrow. As long as Nifty does not do that...

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FinNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry (18th Sep) and today - FinNifty has fallen 585pts ~ 2.87%. 19th Sep was a holiday due to which the expiry was preponed to 18th. On 20th we had an island day with sharp cuts. 21st also we had an island day but that got faded out as the price move kind of stabilized around those levels. Few of those points...

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BankNifty Analysis Yesterday I had a bearish call for banknifty, recap: “My first target of 44451 was hit — but it was not enough to build up momentum. As long as BN stays below 45399 I wish to maintain the bearish call. This is in spite of the day ending with a gain of 154pts.” If you look at the 5mts chart pattern, its hard to notice the bearishness, but if...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”I wish to change my stance to neutral as long as we remain between these 2 orange lines. Personally I prefer if Nifty breaks down and retests the August lows by this Thursday.”. The prediction came out exactly true, but the trading results today were not satisfactory. Nifty stayed in a very tight range today with no...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday I wish to continue my bearish stance with the first target being 19563 and second 19484. If the momentum fades and we are unable to pick a direction in the opening 2 hours — I wish to change my stance to neutral to a wait and watch mode.” Firstly my bearish call did not work out today - that disappointed me a...

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BankNifty Analysis The real reason Nifty50 went sharply up from 11.00 to 13.30 was due to banknifty. In the same period BN added 534pts ~ 1.20%. The spikes in most banks did not have a natural rhythm to it. Most likely this may be due to some news event. I was not able to find any relevant trigger post market hours also. The chart patterns were similar on...

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BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was trying to recover from the fall yesterday and it got lucky with 2 news events. Firstly JP Morgan announced its adding India to its Emerging markets bond index - source. Catch the discussion in Trading QNA. Secondly the news broke out that Govt’s commentary that I-CRR withdrawal will give ample liquidity with the banks -...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bearish stance with the first target at 19672 and the second but strong target at 19589. Ideally the bears should be able to close the day below 19589 tomorrow and take out the 19310 early next week. One thing to remember is Nifty50 is still not bearish on the daily time frame whereas SPX...

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BankNifty Analysis One thing that really gave me confidence in the bearish move was the build up of momentum in banknifty. I did not get this feedback from Nifty, but Banknifty’s pulse gave me hope that further down moves are highly possible. Since I rely on options flow also to gauge the sentiment - the intensity of CE shorts were too good today especially in...

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Nifty Weekly Analysis Nifty has fallen 354pts ~ 1.76% between the last expiry and today. Interestingly the price action on 15th and 18th stands out as an isolated island. Almost 90% of the fall came in the last 2 days which has even changed the sentiment. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For further down move we need that gap to be taken out on...

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BankNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, banknifty has fallen only 0.98% ~ 451pts. Today’s fall was much higher than that ~ 595pts. Most importantly we had a top like formation that got completed this week. And since Banks turn first - we can always consider it as a leading indicator during trend reversals. BankNifty Today Analysis The...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I will be quite happy if this turns out to be the new top formation. Since the 20100 level was not taken out today, I was not able to take new short positions. We have a holiday tomorrow, but when we resume on Wednesday — I would really prefer if 20070 is taken out, till then I would prefer to stay neutral.”...

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FinNifty Weekly Analysis We had the expiry today instead of Tuesday because of a scheduled holiday in exchanges on 19th Sep 2023. So in the current expiry week, FinNifty got only 4 trading days. Between the last expiry day and today, FinNifty has gone up 120pts ~ 0.6%. And in this period we looked strong, but not strong enough to take out the all time highs....

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BankNifty Analysis Banknifty showed more negative sentiment than Nifty. In Fact it is hard to digest that Nifty was staying strong when BankNifty, NiftyIT and Reliance were down. Quite a rare day. Recap from Friday: “For monday I wish to maintain the bullish stance and would like to reverse and go short only if the 45910 levels are getting taken out.” . Not...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday I wish to maintain the same 50% neutral 50% bullish stance. And wish to go short if 20100 level is getting taken out.” . Nifty was not neutral today, had a negative bias, but did not fall below 20100 to go short. On Friday SPX closed -1.22% down sending a strong negative message, but it seems like our markets...

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BankNifty Analysis Banknifty also had a similar chart pattern like Nifty50. The good thing is that it has caught up near the all time highs. We just have 98pts to be taken out for a new lifetime high. Today’s price action and the far OTM premiums were totally out of sync. The volatility was falling still there were adequate price swings - which is not the case...