28 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Q2, Jul-Sep, Weekly Expiry
Nifty Quarterly Report
Today’s expiry marks the end of Q2 FY2023-24. Between 28th Jun 2023 to 28th Sep 2023 - Nifty has gained 2.89% ~ 547pts. June 28 was special as Nifty had hit a new ATH that day. It crossed the crucial resistance of 18880 then.
The rally that started on 28th June ended on 20th Jul wherein Nifty hit a new ATH of 19991.85. From 21st Jul to 31st Aug Nifty was in a bearish descending channel. Sep 1st the I-CRR (incremental cash reserve ratio of 10%) withdrawal news hit the markets and then we started another round of rally. We broke the previous ATH and the new high became 20222.45 as on 15th Sep.
If we compare Nifty50 with S&P500 (SPX), it was down by 2.32% ~ 101.42 pts. A divergence of 5.21% exist when Nifty(INR) vs SPX(USD) is considered and the divergence reduces to 4.5% when both of them are compared in USD currency. Our markets showing great outperformance yet again.
Nifty Monthly Report
In the month of September, Nifty gained 1.43% ~ 275pts at a headline level. The low-to-high rally was a humongous 943pts ~ 4.89% long which helped Nifty record new all-time highs. From 20th Sep we lost 671pts ~ 3.32%.
Nifty Weekly Report
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has shed 358pts ~ 1.80% to close at 19553.
Nifty Daily Report
Recap from yesterday: “I am still not changing my stance from neutral as we are still between 19777 and 19562. If we break above 19777 I wish to go long tomorrow, whereas if we break 19562 — I’d prefer to go short.”.
Remember that massive bounce yesterday from 10:30 AM? That got undone in today’s price action. We broke the swing low of 19554 to a new low of 19492. Intraday we fell 275pts ~ 1.39%. From last week I was hoping we would break the 19310 levels in this week’s expiry, but yesterday’s blip shattered that plan.
On the 1hr TF, Nifty is still looking weak. The next target should be 19446 followed by 19310 if are continuing the downward move. In case we reverse and move up, the first level to watch will be 19776. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bearish for tomorrow.
Today’s expiry marks the end of Q2 FY2023-24. Between 28th Jun 2023 to 28th Sep 2023 - Nifty has gained 2.89% ~ 547pts. June 28 was special as Nifty had hit a new ATH that day. It crossed the crucial resistance of 18880 then.
The rally that started on 28th June ended on 20th Jul wherein Nifty hit a new ATH of 19991.85. From 21st Jul to 31st Aug Nifty was in a bearish descending channel. Sep 1st the I-CRR (incremental cash reserve ratio of 10%) withdrawal news hit the markets and then we started another round of rally. We broke the previous ATH and the new high became 20222.45 as on 15th Sep.
If we compare Nifty50 with S&P500 (SPX), it was down by 2.32% ~ 101.42 pts. A divergence of 5.21% exist when Nifty(INR) vs SPX(USD) is considered and the divergence reduces to 4.5% when both of them are compared in USD currency. Our markets showing great outperformance yet again.
Nifty Monthly Report
In the month of September, Nifty gained 1.43% ~ 275pts at a headline level. The low-to-high rally was a humongous 943pts ~ 4.89% long which helped Nifty record new all-time highs. From 20th Sep we lost 671pts ~ 3.32%.
Nifty Weekly Report
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has shed 358pts ~ 1.80% to close at 19553.
Nifty Daily Report
Recap from yesterday: “I am still not changing my stance from neutral as we are still between 19777 and 19562. If we break above 19777 I wish to go long tomorrow, whereas if we break 19562 — I’d prefer to go short.”.
Remember that massive bounce yesterday from 10:30 AM? That got undone in today’s price action. We broke the swing low of 19554 to a new low of 19492. Intraday we fell 275pts ~ 1.39%. From last week I was hoping we would break the 19310 levels in this week’s expiry, but yesterday’s blip shattered that plan.
On the 1hr TF, Nifty is still looking weak. The next target should be 19446 followed by 19310 if are continuing the downward move. In case we reverse and move up, the first level to watch will be 19776. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bearish for tomorrow.
