viswaram

viswaram Updated 

Nifty was leading SPX all the way till Sep 2022, after which SPX has taken over. If US markets stay like this, the underperformance in Indian markets will create a spiraling effect. More money will get taken out by FIIs -- Both SPX and Nifty50 are plotted in USD currency. The depreciation in INR will be accounted automatically.

viswaram

Banknifty is showing unusual resilience to breakdown, instead its chopping around. The intraday swing range has narrowed in the last 2 days which means we could expect a massive move pretty soon. I am not very sure what is restricting banknifty from falling. For example we had a good gap down today and hit the swing low of 16 Aug, but the recovery was so decent...

viswaram

There was only 1 goal for the bears today, to close the markets below 19309. Somehow they got it done today which means we are in for a bear ride next week. Let me try to explain. We opened right at the 19309 level and then fell to 19258 levels by 10.45 in a show of strength by the bears. From there there was a reversal till 12.00 where we re-touched the 19309 SR...

viswaram

BankNifty Weekly Analysis The bears have managed to take out 674pts ~ 1.52% between the last expiry and today. A sign of momentum getting built. We have taken out 1 important support level of 44068 in this week - something to cheer for the bears. Overall sentiment is looking bearish as the EMAs are diverging. BankNifty Today Analysis We had a flat today, but...

viswaram

Nifty Weekly Analysis We have fallen 201pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. If you notice the chart below, Nifty is closely following the bearish trend line and we will get a range convergence soon. If the support line of 19309 is not breaking - we will have a bullish reversal. Global macros, India inflation data and other sentiments are pointing for a...

viswaram

From the moment we started today, Banknifty looked and stayed bearish for the entire day today. In the opening minutes we dropped 1.06% ~ 465pts and then there was a decent recovery of 403pts ~ 0.93 by 15.05 Last session we discussed the support/resistance zone of 44068. We have broken that today and the close ensured we have conclusively breached it. HDFCBK made...

viswaram

Last session we discussed the support level of 19311, this came into play today and proved quite hard to breach. Today’s intraday low 19317 was hit in the first candle itself after a gap down opening. The biggest negative news to start the day was the higher than expected 7.44% CPI inflation that came after market hours on 14th Aug. Also the SPX and NDQ also...

viswaram

FinNifty Weekly Analysis We have fallen 2.31% ~ 464pts between the last expiry and today. This is definitely a good start for the bears. Unlike Nifty, Finnifty has managed to form a lower low on the 1hr TF. The first major support comes at 19421. FinNifty Today Analysis Due to HDFCBK’s weightage on Finnifty, we closed a 0.1% lower than banknifty today i.e at...

viswaram

Banknifty also made a decent recovery after the 482pts ~ 1.09% fall in the opening 20mts. It retraced 433pts by 15.00. And then fell a little to close out with only 0.2% losses @ 44090. Even though the recovery was good, it was not as dramatic as Nifty50. And we are back at an important support/resistance level of 44068. So bank nifty has retested its old SR...

viswaram

After the trades on Friday, I modified my stance to 100% bearish. What other boon could I ask for when we had the opening 5mts better than expected? “The first target to take out will be the recent swing low of 19296. The next support comes at 19190.’ As soon as 19300 was taken out in the 2nd candle, my conviction for a bear rally was growing. But that did not...

viswaram

Banks were just continuing the trend from yesterday. The first candle saw a swing of 247pts ~ 0.56%. From there they were holding it steady till 12.40. Something interesting happened at the 13.00 candle which was a strong green of 128pts. HDFCBK, ICICI, SBIN, AXIS all were shooting up. What happened right after that was a super spike in RELIANCE (up 1.38%...

viswaram

The first 5mts candle today had a swing range of 0.34% ~ 66pts but this did not drive up the OTM premiums. The majority of traders have forgotten what fear was like. India VIX was up 2 to 3% then and still in the 11.5 range. The complacency has gotten into the traders so deep that they think some dip buyers will come in and rally the markets by closing hour. Today...

viswaram

BankNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, banknifty has fallen 34pts ~ 0.08% (flattish). Compare this to Nifty which rose 0.8%. In our markets banks are the leading indicator, whereas in the US its the non-banks. That is why professionals look up to banknifty in India and Nasdaq in the US as leading indicators of trends. BankNifty Today’s...

viswaram

Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry day and today, Nifty has managed to rise 152pts ~ 0.78% which is a good sign for the bulls. This flattish phase was much required after Nifty picked up a direction from 21st July. The technical analysis points to a trend continuation possibility and should be good for the bears! Nifty Today Analysis Today’s move was...

viswaram

Banknifty had a perfect W like pattern formed in the 5mts TF. Even though the rally from 13.50 to close was inspiring, it was not as fierce as on Nifty50. The fall of 441pts ~ 0.98% steals the limelight today. Now was the 380+ pts reversal from the intraday low to close due to the RBI MPC outcome expectation tomorrow? Some facts to consider. The vegetable,...

viswaram

Yesterday we went with a 60% Neutral and 40% bearish stance for today. What happened from open till 13.15 - was in perfect harmony & as per the script. But the intraday rally of 177pts ~ 0.91% was totally shocking! I was unprepared, unplanned and must say ran into losses today because of my bias. I should say with 100% honesty - my research failed me today. I had...

viswaram

The major reason Nifty50 stayed strong without falling much is banknifty. It did show an attempt to break free from the bearish trend, the opening rush of 279pts till 10.40 is proof for that. From there was loss of steam and a pull back of 204pts. Once this inverted V shape was completed - there was lack of direction or momentum. Options data also indicated a...

viswaram

Nifty made an interesting opening 2 hour price action today. With a good gap up opening and then a strong rejection at 19640 levels to hit an intraday low of 19533 by 11.35. The selling pressure was strong, but the financial sector did not lend support. NiftyIT was falling - but that got arrested and hence the reversal post 11.35. Currently we have a situation...