viswaram

viswaram

Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has just gone up by 32pts ~ 0.17%. But this week has seen a wide swing of 332pts ~ 1.72% i.e from the low of the week to the high of the week. The drama mostly in today’s price action which we will be discussing shortly. Nifty Daily Analysis Today’s price action was action filled with drama right...

viswaram

Nifty also closed in the green today but did not have as much momentum as BankNifty today. The first divergence happened in the opening 1 hr where Nifty gave up 0.43% ~ 83pts even after having a gap-up opening. The real reasons for a gap-up opening was not clear as the Global hand-out was not that positive. Traders including me were looking for breakdown...

viswaram

We will start with BankNifty today, because we had a reversal pattern today. According to me trend changes are first spotted on BankNifty and hence it works as a leading indicator. This is what I said in yesterday’s report: Also note that the falling wedge will converge tomorrow, so a strong up move is more dangerous. The bulls will use that opportunity to drive...

viswaram

Between the last expiry and today, FinNifty has only given up 110pts ~ 0.56%. This is not at all a bad number if you consider the bearish trend it is in. Just like banknifty, finnifty is also following a falling wedge pattern with the same descending trendline slope. The noticeable point is that the support is at 19424 and technically Finnifty is still in the...

viswaram

The reason why we were bearish in the first place was the inability of BankNifty to take out the resistance of 44068. Today’s price action is the biggest proof on why it worked. If you notice the trades today, it was above or near this level till 13.40. Then banknifty started falling. And the final close came at 43950 - there was a noticeable fall of 160pts from...

viswaram

Yesterday we had a neutral stance for Nifty and a bearish stance for BankNifty. If you were watching every 5mts candle today, you wouldn't believe how we ended up getting Nifty at +0.01% and BankNifty down 8.75pts. Nifty makes a beautiful rounded top formation today, will wait for tomorrow to see if we get the cup & handle formation. As soon as the day started it...

viswaram

Looking at the way Nifty performed in the morning session, I was quite worried that the stance on BankNifty might also have to be changed. The level that we were looking for was 44068 which is the first resistance zone. At 13.15 we broke that in the 5mts candle, and then we broke it again at 13.55 - but the momentum was not strong enough. There was a strong fall...

viswaram

On our last day’s report we discussed the possibility of Nifty staying above the 19309 levels. It was with great difficulty that we got a closing below 19309 on Friday, today we opened right there and then had a good rally till 19370 levels. Immediately we started reversing and fell below water by 10.10. The price action is similar to the 14.00 to 15.00 period....

viswaram Updated 

Nifty was leading SPX all the way till Sep 2022, after which SPX has taken over. If US markets stay like this, the underperformance in Indian markets will create a spiraling effect. More money will get taken out by FIIs -- Both SPX and Nifty50 are plotted in USD currency. The depreciation in INR will be accounted automatically.

viswaram

Banknifty is showing unusual resilience to breakdown, instead its chopping around. The intraday swing range has narrowed in the last 2 days which means we could expect a massive move pretty soon. I am not very sure what is restricting banknifty from falling. For example we had a good gap down today and hit the swing low of 16 Aug, but the recovery was so decent...

viswaram

There was only 1 goal for the bears today, to close the markets below 19309. Somehow they got it done today which means we are in for a bear ride next week. Let me try to explain. We opened right at the 19309 level and then fell to 19258 levels by 10.45 in a show of strength by the bears. From there there was a reversal till 12.00 where we re-touched the 19309 SR...

viswaram

BankNifty Weekly Analysis The bears have managed to take out 674pts ~ 1.52% between the last expiry and today. A sign of momentum getting built. We have taken out 1 important support level of 44068 in this week - something to cheer for the bears. Overall sentiment is looking bearish as the EMAs are diverging. BankNifty Today Analysis We had a flat today, but...

viswaram

Nifty Weekly Analysis We have fallen 201pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. If you notice the chart below, Nifty is closely following the bearish trend line and we will get a range convergence soon. If the support line of 19309 is not breaking - we will have a bullish reversal. Global macros, India inflation data and other sentiments are pointing for a...

viswaram

From the moment we started today, Banknifty looked and stayed bearish for the entire day today. In the opening minutes we dropped 1.06% ~ 465pts and then there was a decent recovery of 403pts ~ 0.93 by 15.05 Last session we discussed the support/resistance zone of 44068. We have broken that today and the close ensured we have conclusively breached it. HDFCBK made...

viswaram

Last session we discussed the support level of 19311, this came into play today and proved quite hard to breach. Today’s intraday low 19317 was hit in the first candle itself after a gap down opening. The biggest negative news to start the day was the higher than expected 7.44% CPI inflation that came after market hours on 14th Aug. Also the SPX and NDQ also...

viswaram

FinNifty Weekly Analysis We have fallen 2.31% ~ 464pts between the last expiry and today. This is definitely a good start for the bears. Unlike Nifty, Finnifty has managed to form a lower low on the 1hr TF. The first major support comes at 19421. FinNifty Today Analysis Due to HDFCBK’s weightage on Finnifty, we closed a 0.1% lower than banknifty today i.e at...

viswaram

Banknifty also made a decent recovery after the 482pts ~ 1.09% fall in the opening 20mts. It retraced 433pts by 15.00. And then fell a little to close out with only 0.2% losses @ 44090. Even though the recovery was good, it was not as dramatic as Nifty50. And we are back at an important support/resistance level of 44068. So bank nifty has retested its old SR...

viswaram

After the trades on Friday, I modified my stance to 100% bearish. What other boon could I ask for when we had the opening 5mts better than expected? “The first target to take out will be the recent swing low of 19296. The next support comes at 19190.’ As soon as 19300 was taken out in the 2nd candle, my conviction for a bear rally was growing. But that did not...