18 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 19309 support breached 🐻🐻🐻
There was only 1 goal for the bears today, to close the markets below 19309. Somehow they got it done today which means we are in for a bear ride next week. Let me try to explain.
We opened right at the 19309 level and then fell to 19258 levels by 10.45 in a show of strength by the bears. From there there was a reversal till 12.00 where we re-touched the 19309 SR zone.
Leg 2 of fall was from 12.00 to 13.40 where we managed to re-test the 19258 levels. I was monitoring very closely to see if we will break this swing low and fall towards the 19186 levels. Instead we had a surprise rally of 111pts ~ 0.58% between 13.45 to 14.15. The news about RELIANCE-JIO shares getting listed on 21 Aug would have led to short covering. A move of +2.5% in RELIANCE is more than enough to spoil the technical analysis patterns & levels.
Nifty ended up making a double bottom today at the 19258 levels and the surge of 111pts to go green would have worried many bears. I sure got rattled, I even thought a close below 19309 may not be possible. However the bears finally got their act together and ensured to push down the prices below 19309 levels.
The fall below 19309 has just managed to negate a falling wedge or a descending triangle pattern. This is good for the bears as the mainline support is breached, which will open up the downside possibilities. The next goal is to take out the break-away gap that was created on 30th June. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for 21 Aug 2023, If we have a gap-up opening or a strong rally to take out the 19309 resistance - I might be forced to change the stance from bearish to neutral.
We opened right at the 19309 level and then fell to 19258 levels by 10.45 in a show of strength by the bears. From there there was a reversal till 12.00 where we re-touched the 19309 SR zone.
Leg 2 of fall was from 12.00 to 13.40 where we managed to re-test the 19258 levels. I was monitoring very closely to see if we will break this swing low and fall towards the 19186 levels. Instead we had a surprise rally of 111pts ~ 0.58% between 13.45 to 14.15. The news about RELIANCE-JIO shares getting listed on 21 Aug would have led to short covering. A move of +2.5% in RELIANCE is more than enough to spoil the technical analysis patterns & levels.
Nifty ended up making a double bottom today at the 19258 levels and the surge of 111pts to go green would have worried many bears. I sure got rattled, I even thought a close below 19309 may not be possible. However the bears finally got their act together and ensured to push down the prices below 19309 levels.
The fall below 19309 has just managed to negate a falling wedge or a descending triangle pattern. This is good for the bears as the mainline support is breached, which will open up the downside possibilities. The next goal is to take out the break-away gap that was created on 30th June. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for 21 Aug 2023, If we have a gap-up opening or a strong rally to take out the 19309 resistance - I might be forced to change the stance from bearish to neutral.
