18 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Choppiness for 2 days

NSE:BANKNIFTY   Nifty Bank Index
Banknifty is showing unusual resilience to breakdown, instead its chopping around. The intraday swing range has narrowed in the last 2 days which means we could expect a massive move pretty soon. I am not very sure what is restricting banknifty from falling.

For example we had a good gap down today and hit the swing low of 16 Aug, but the recovery was so decent that it made the gap-down seem like a blip. By 10.15 banknifty was in green and from there the fall to 43776 levels was gradual with no momentum. It took till 13.40 for a fall of 170pts ~ 0.39% which is not a great deal.
Just when Nifty50 started roaring (Reliance-Jio news), banknifty also started covering the shorts and rose till 43933 levels by 14.15. From there we kept drifting lower till close. Finally we just lost 40pts ~ 0.09%.
The momentum has fallen in the last 2 days, it could even be a rest period wherein banknifty is catching some breath. The closing prices and the distance to the trend line is wide enough to change a stance, so I wish to stay bearish till 44068 resistance is safe. If its getting crossed via a gap-up or strong trading moves - I may have to change the stance to neutral on 21 Aug.


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