PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 Mar 2023
Traders expected a bullish day today. They cannot be blamed because on 22nd we had a solid trade day above the crucial support level of 39742.
But something was certain, once we broke that level yesterday we should really look out for bearish opportunities not the other way around. The level of 39742 became so important because of the time spent in the range ~ 45 days.
Thats why at 09.29 i posted this message on banknifty minds "$BANKNIFTY as long as 39742 is not broken there is no point in going bullish it could even trap us!"
Open was inline at 39555 and then we spent 2hrs without any specific directional moves.
Then there was a steady rise to the resistance level of 39742, must say a rise of 256pts and then an expected rejection.
From 12.25 to the close there was a steady fall of 465pts ~ 1.17%, it did not come as a single leg. There was a pull back from 13.00 to 13.15 wherein we retested the resistance again.
Today's fall may not be entirely technical - there were lot of fundamental news flow related to taxation & passing of finance bill that created some uncertainties.
Govt. plan to raise the STT, remove the indexation benefit for debt mutual funds was not taken positively by the market. There is something unusual about the finance bill passed today - it comes 52 days after the Union budget was presented.
During the budget there was no mention of revision of taxation, removal of long term capital gain etc. They might have felt that releasing those news then would have crashed the markets. But the sad thing is that they took us for a ride now.
The reaction we had from the stock market today was nothing compared to the impact of revision of tax structures. If Govt. doesnt allow grandfathering ie people who had already got into debt funds before 31 Mar 2023 to enjoy the indexation benefit - then we are in deep trouble.
Coming back to bank nifty, we closed at the low point in the day and like yesterday the selling intensified in the closing hours thereby restricting the real damage.
We can look forward to have an eventful next week !
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15mts is not showing an immediate direction, it will show bearish bias only if the 38690 support is taken out. Just because 39742 is broken the sentiment cannot be bearish because banknifty has spent time below 39742 without causing a damage earlier.
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1hr is still continuing to look bearish, but the momentum will intensify only if the next support level is breached. If things go as per plan we may be able to see it before March series end.
But something was certain, once we broke that level yesterday we should really look out for bearish opportunities not the other way around. The level of 39742 became so important because of the time spent in the range ~ 45 days.
Thats why at 09.29 i posted this message on banknifty minds "$BANKNIFTY as long as 39742 is not broken there is no point in going bullish it could even trap us!"
Open was inline at 39555 and then we spent 2hrs without any specific directional moves.
Then there was a steady rise to the resistance level of 39742, must say a rise of 256pts and then an expected rejection.
From 12.25 to the close there was a steady fall of 465pts ~ 1.17%, it did not come as a single leg. There was a pull back from 13.00 to 13.15 wherein we retested the resistance again.
Today's fall may not be entirely technical - there were lot of fundamental news flow related to taxation & passing of finance bill that created some uncertainties.
Govt. plan to raise the STT, remove the indexation benefit for debt mutual funds was not taken positively by the market. There is something unusual about the finance bill passed today - it comes 52 days after the Union budget was presented.
During the budget there was no mention of revision of taxation, removal of long term capital gain etc. They might have felt that releasing those news then would have crashed the markets. But the sad thing is that they took us for a ride now.
The reaction we had from the stock market today was nothing compared to the impact of revision of tax structures. If Govt. doesnt allow grandfathering ie people who had already got into debt funds before 31 Mar 2023 to enjoy the indexation benefit - then we are in deep trouble.
Coming back to bank nifty, we closed at the low point in the day and like yesterday the selling intensified in the closing hours thereby restricting the real damage.
We can look forward to have an eventful next week !
---
15mts is not showing an immediate direction, it will show bearish bias only if the 38690 support is taken out. Just because 39742 is broken the sentiment cannot be bearish because banknifty has spent time below 39742 without causing a damage earlier.
---
1hr is still continuing to look bearish, but the momentum will intensify only if the next support level is breached. If things go as per plan we may be able to see it before March series end.
