Investment_ BCG (Brightcom Group)

1) BCG is a very good mid-cap stock for investing, based on my analysis. It has average EPS of Rs 4.40 for the last 6 years. It also has corrected enough to look good to value investors.
2) It's intrinsic value (IV) is Rs 184, if India 10Y Treasury yield of 6.1% is considered. I personally use Sir Ben Graham's formulae, in which he has put 10 Year Treasury Yield at the denominator. Hence, if the treasury yields go up, then stock and overall market's IV will go down, it's that simple.
3) Currently, Treasury yield is around 7.4%. But I expect it to go down, in the upcoming time.
4) I do not suggest investing more than 5% of your entire capital in this stock. I suggest many stocks, but you have to pick your favorite ones yourself.
The price for investing in should be Rs 36.55. Remember, you should buy only when it break that level. I will also be buying some shares.

Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment carries an element of financial risk. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
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There will be many upper and lower circuits. Please don't get panic and sell. Holding it until either of two scenarios is always a better solution than selling it at a loss.
Looks like it is heading Rs 24.
Stock is falling mostly because promoter holding has decreased rapidly over several quarters. Whereas, FII holding have been increasing at the same speed. Maybe promoters sold holding expecting a bad year ahead for the company and FII bought seeing the very high value (i.e. low P/E = high value with certain risks). But either of them have to bear "opportunity cost". I have some shares of it so I fall onto FII side (i.e. optimist).
Added 1/4th qty at Rs 13.30. It takes BCG to 6.25% of my whole portfolio. I know this stock is "bleeding" red. But, my thinking is that, if I want to make 100% gain on my whole portfolio, "I have to see -33% decline at some point of time".
For the people who don't know, SEBI has issued a show cause notice to Brightcom Group on 14th April 2022, that "BGL has committed significant accounting irregularities. Firstly, it has delayed the accounting of impairment losses of a huge amount of nearly Rs 1,000 crore. This means that losses of earlier years were not accounted for in those years but much later..." source: moneycontrol. Some analysts are expecting that this stock would touch Rs 5-6 (i.e. pre-rally levels). I have around 6.25% of my portfolio in this stock.
I may add 1 or 2% more (of my portfolio) at Rs 5-6 levels if the scenario convince me. In my opinion, if the allegations proved correct, it would be a lost year because now the company is making Rs 1000 crore net profit in a single year. I try to NEVER SELL AT A LOSS, and this stock is in loss so I won't sell it. It is just my thoughts on the stock and should not be considered as an investment advice.
I am reducing my stake in this company by selling my "half position" (i.e. booking loss at Rs 16). I am loosing confidence in this stock because of three reasons. One: Huge trade receivables as assets in Balance sheet. Two: Resignation of previous auditors. Three: Delay in posting quarterly earnings. I will leave half position and see what happens. Its my view, and please consider your financial advisor before taking any action.
I expect anyone who is reading my writings to know that there is nothing "certain" in the markets. Neither the %gain on stock nor "out-performance" or "under-performance". There is a risk and opportunity cost involved in both, buying and selling. Selling at any price can often result in "opportunity loss" when the stock moves higher and higher. Human psychology is a culprit here. For e.g. I post any stock which seems undervalued or overvalued to me on tradingview. When anyone makes money on that, they wont appreciate me "a single word". But when they lose or it results in opportunity loss, they are bound to blame me. I don't criticize any person, because I know their psychology has defeated them. At last, there is nothing like "easy money" in the markets. The survival of the fittest holds absolutely true here.

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