By Bulgogi_Cheese_Ramyun 30 MAR 2020
BLUF: Expect more volatility as we weather the coronavirus storm and consolidate through halving and beyond
C.R.A.P. Analysis:
1) CHART: (CHANGE) The chart adds current micro trend lines from the recovery onward. The chart also adds a Micro and Macro range. The unlikely trend to meet or beat last year’s high before halving broke downwards as expected, as we remain well above the macro midline, and FUD continues.
2) RELEVANT FACTORS:
a) Investor confidence. (CHANGE) BTC and cryptocurrency market in general appears to be leading the global stock and financial markets in recovery. The speed with which BTC rebounded, combined with anti-inflationary property, central banks printing money, stock markets still falling, BTC seems to be a great place to put your money. This MAY draw many new investors, especially if touted by the media. Despite the recent flash crash sending some investors and traders running for more security, BTC remains a highly volatile speculative tradeable asset with a strong following.
b) History & Cycles: (CHANGE) Epic rebounds are often followed by significant declines. Expect more declines in the near future until we return to the new midline.
c) Coronavirus: (CHANGE) The worst is yet to come for most of the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a PANDEMIC on 11 MAR 2020. Since then, globally, travel and events of mass gathering are being cancelled at rates never before seen. Supply chain shortages and CV FUD triggered a global stock sell-off and gold price volatility which are in league with bitcoin volatility. A mix of good and bad coronavirus news are filling inexperienced investors with alternating Hopium and FUD and this is translating into asset price volatility. After sell-off, assets are being held in fiat currencies more so than other traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Whales may be preparing to transfer wealth to bitcoin, but that transfer may continue for some time, especially if bitcoin, stocks, and gold continue their decline as whales will attempt to purchase at bargain prices. According to www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Currently, 722,196 confirmed cases of Coronavirus, 33,976 deaths, and 151,766 recoveries. Of 185,742 closed cases, 151,766 are discharged, indicating a death rate of 18% of outcomes reported. However only 5% of active cases are considered to be in serious or critical condition. Today, U.S. President Trump extended the recommended Social Distancing guidelines through the end of April and expects the number of active cases to stop rising in two weeks. Still, over the next 2-3 weeks, I expect Covid-19 numbers to multiply many times over in the USA and globally.
d) Media Influence: (CHANGE) As predicted, U.S. media continues focus on the Coronavirus spread, government inaction, and the global economic impact, spreading FUD amongst investors, and tanking the market yet again. As media shifts focus to recovery and adaptation, I expect fear to minimize, and most markets to rebound. It is strongly possible media will address Bitcoin’s departure from correlation with stock markets and the significant gains in BTC while gold remains mostly steady and stocks remain low. If that happens, expect a strong boom in Bitcoin.
e) Global Recession: (CHANGE) Stocks alternated Dead Cat Bounces and more declines as we continued down the rocky slope beyond Black Monday into an official Bear Market. But it is not over. As indicators mount which are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin prices have declined similarly. I believe three weeks ago, stock market declines were also "tip of the iceberg" and two weeks ago, we saw part of the submerged iceberg. Last week, we saw volatility in all markets, with bitcoin leading the markets in a potential rebound. Although it will get worse before it gets better, when the global economy improves, I expect Bitcoin to lead the rest of the markets out of decline.
f) Halving: (N/C) The Halving calculated for 10-12 May 2020 will reduce the available supply of new bitcoin to the market, creating scarcity and resulting in price increase. Historically the BTC price was at a relative low during halvening and the reduced supply is what drove the price of BTC upward significantly after the previous two halvings. The current socioeconomic conditions will reduce the rate at which the halving increases BTC price until those socioeconomic conditions improve.
3) ANALYSIS: (CHANGE) Bitcoin rebounded strongly well above the macro recommended sell line before investors decided it was oversold. Current downward momentum, if sustained, puts us on a trajectory to intersect the previous bearish correction support line in about 3 days at $4,500.
4) PREDICTION: (CHANGE) Price declines over the next few days into the $5K or even $4K ranges. Volatility and uncertainty to continue until news on coronavirus spread & impact improves or massive whale movement, whichever comes first. Current momentum, if sustained, , puts us on a trajectory to intersect the previous bearish correction support line in about 3 days at $4,500. Be careful of resistance between $6K and $4,500… if $4,500 does not hold, it is entirely possible to drop down to $3,8xx or lower. After halving, we should start to see significant price increase as the available supply of new BTC declines significantly. If socioeconomic conditions maintain or improve, this is the start of a massive bull run which will continue through halving and end in a year or two from now at a new ATH. Due to the coronavirus impact, stunted economics will reduce the slope of BTC price rise until global economic conditions improve.
BLUF: Expect more volatility as we weather the coronavirus storm and consolidate through halving and beyond
C.R.A.P. Analysis:
1) CHART: (CHANGE) The chart adds current micro trend lines from the recovery onward. The chart also adds a Micro and Macro range. The unlikely trend to meet or beat last year’s high before halving broke downwards as expected, as we remain well above the macro midline, and FUD continues.
2) RELEVANT FACTORS:
a) Investor confidence. (CHANGE) BTC and cryptocurrency market in general appears to be leading the global stock and financial markets in recovery. The speed with which BTC rebounded, combined with anti-inflationary property, central banks printing money, stock markets still falling, BTC seems to be a great place to put your money. This MAY draw many new investors, especially if touted by the media. Despite the recent flash crash sending some investors and traders running for more security, BTC remains a highly volatile speculative tradeable asset with a strong following.
b) History & Cycles: (CHANGE) Epic rebounds are often followed by significant declines. Expect more declines in the near future until we return to the new midline.
c) Coronavirus: (CHANGE) The worst is yet to come for most of the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a PANDEMIC on 11 MAR 2020. Since then, globally, travel and events of mass gathering are being cancelled at rates never before seen. Supply chain shortages and CV FUD triggered a global stock sell-off and gold price volatility which are in league with bitcoin volatility. A mix of good and bad coronavirus news are filling inexperienced investors with alternating Hopium and FUD and this is translating into asset price volatility. After sell-off, assets are being held in fiat currencies more so than other traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Whales may be preparing to transfer wealth to bitcoin, but that transfer may continue for some time, especially if bitcoin, stocks, and gold continue their decline as whales will attempt to purchase at bargain prices. According to www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Currently, 722,196 confirmed cases of Coronavirus, 33,976 deaths, and 151,766 recoveries. Of 185,742 closed cases, 151,766 are discharged, indicating a death rate of 18% of outcomes reported. However only 5% of active cases are considered to be in serious or critical condition. Today, U.S. President Trump extended the recommended Social Distancing guidelines through the end of April and expects the number of active cases to stop rising in two weeks. Still, over the next 2-3 weeks, I expect Covid-19 numbers to multiply many times over in the USA and globally.
d) Media Influence: (CHANGE) As predicted, U.S. media continues focus on the Coronavirus spread, government inaction, and the global economic impact, spreading FUD amongst investors, and tanking the market yet again. As media shifts focus to recovery and adaptation, I expect fear to minimize, and most markets to rebound. It is strongly possible media will address Bitcoin’s departure from correlation with stock markets and the significant gains in BTC while gold remains mostly steady and stocks remain low. If that happens, expect a strong boom in Bitcoin.
e) Global Recession: (CHANGE) Stocks alternated Dead Cat Bounces and more declines as we continued down the rocky slope beyond Black Monday into an official Bear Market. But it is not over. As indicators mount which are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin prices have declined similarly. I believe three weeks ago, stock market declines were also "tip of the iceberg" and two weeks ago, we saw part of the submerged iceberg. Last week, we saw volatility in all markets, with bitcoin leading the markets in a potential rebound. Although it will get worse before it gets better, when the global economy improves, I expect Bitcoin to lead the rest of the markets out of decline.
f) Halving: (N/C) The Halving calculated for 10-12 May 2020 will reduce the available supply of new bitcoin to the market, creating scarcity and resulting in price increase. Historically the BTC price was at a relative low during halvening and the reduced supply is what drove the price of BTC upward significantly after the previous two halvings. The current socioeconomic conditions will reduce the rate at which the halving increases BTC price until those socioeconomic conditions improve.
3) ANALYSIS: (CHANGE) Bitcoin rebounded strongly well above the macro recommended sell line before investors decided it was oversold. Current downward momentum, if sustained, puts us on a trajectory to intersect the previous bearish correction support line in about 3 days at $4,500.
4) PREDICTION: (CHANGE) Price declines over the next few days into the $5K or even $4K ranges. Volatility and uncertainty to continue until news on coronavirus spread & impact improves or massive whale movement, whichever comes first. Current momentum, if sustained, , puts us on a trajectory to intersect the previous bearish correction support line in about 3 days at $4,500. Be careful of resistance between $6K and $4,500… if $4,500 does not hold, it is entirely possible to drop down to $3,8xx or lower. After halving, we should start to see significant price increase as the available supply of new BTC declines significantly. If socioeconomic conditions maintain or improve, this is the start of a massive bull run which will continue through halving and end in a year or two from now at a new ATH. Due to the coronavirus impact, stunted economics will reduce the slope of BTC price rise until global economic conditions improve.
