Will Bitcoin Retrace? If Yes, By How Much?

These are the questions that I am now getting very often... If Bitcoin will retrace, how far can it go?

The potential targets we look at are based on the timeframe we are reading...

Even though we have a very strong bearish candle today, with really high volume... It is still very early on this move, here is the daily (D) chart for BTCUSD:
  • We have today's bearish candle with a long lower wick.
  • Yesterday's candle supports today's bearish bias.
  • We have really high red volume...
  • Prices remain above EMA10.
  • The uptrend is intact.

As you can see, it is still VERY EARLY in this current move with mixed signals based on TA.

But if we study the previous corrections and retraces, we can see that Bitcoin tends to test first EMA21, EMA50, and EMA100 after breaking below EMA10.

These levels coincide with the Fib. retracement support for the entire bullish wave starting back in March 2020.

These levels go as follow:

0.382 = $23200 (Matches EMA10 weekly)
0.5 = $19617 (Matches EMA21 weekly)
0.618 = $16034 (Just below EMA21 weekly)

It is too soon to tell on the daily timeframe so let's look at the 4H chart.
We will wait for a few more candles on this one and then share a new analysis.

The 4H timeframe is the main chart above.

Here we can appreciate the bearish bias more easily, the signals go as follow:

  • Prices broke and closed below EMA10 and EMA21.
  • EMA50 challenged on a wick. On this frame, prices can test up to MA200 and EMA200 as support, this is sitting around $24400 and $23100.
  • MACD histogram goes red while trending lower.
  • RSI breaks below 50 sending out a bearish signal.

In conclusion, we are aiming lower short-term.

Conditions for change
This can change if we see Bitcoin (BTCUSD) MOVE AND CLOSE ABOVE EMA10 on the chart above. This would invalidate the bearish signals/bias and put the bulls back in control.

This is a short-term analysis... Later on, I will share more when the daily candle closes and we get a better picture of how things will go.

If Bitcoin decides to take a break, this is great news... The altcoins will then grow strong.

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