BTC's Future Trajectory

Hey there, fellow crypto enthusiasts! πŸš€
What's the scoop on BTC? Well, let's dive into the cryptocurrency rabbit hole and share my five cents on the matter, as illustrated on the chart.

A Remarkable YearπŸš€
The year 2021 witnessed the culmination of a robust uptrend in this pair. When I refer to a robust trend, I mean an astounding increase of 1,500% or more, with the majority of this surge occurring within the span of a single year.

The Onset of a Significant ShiftπŸ”°
BTC reached a peak in 2021, only to be followed by a reversal. As evident in the chart, within just 3months, from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, it shed approximately half (50%) of its gains from the highs.

The Deceptive RallyπŸ‘€
When an asset experiences such a substantial decline over a short period, it often gives rise to relief rallies. These rallies can be quite potent and may even appear as bull markets on shorter timeframes. BTC rebounded by almost 45% from the lows it hit in January 2022, and a significant portion of this increase occurred within just 15 days. However, at the end of March 2022, there was a false breakout from a range, and the trend reversed once again.

Second PlungeπŸ”°
This time, BTC tumbled by over 60% from the highs it reached in the March 2022 rally. The fall's momentum was even more pronounced, taking only 2.5 months to reach this 60% decline. This added up to a total loss of 75% from the 2021 highs. Notably, BTC was testing and holding the 2017 highs during this period. As you might recall, resistance, once breached, can often act as support in the future. However, it was not apparent at that time that the pain was far from over.

Another Deceptive RallyπŸ‘€
Following the second decline, there was a three-month-long relief rally, amounting to roughly 44% from the recent lows recorded in June 2022. Unfortunately, this rally was nothing more than a bear market rally and the fall continued.

The Final Leg: Positive Cluesβœ…
The last downward move on the chart saw a decline of no less than 39% from the highs of the second relief rally. However, there were notable changes in behavior that can be observed in the chart:

1. The amplitude of the downward move was comparatively smaller than in the previous two declines.
2. The downthrust- distance between lows decreased.
3. The retest, as seen on the chart, failed (taken out) this time, unlike the two previous retests.
4. Breakout of a falling wedge can be seen, which typically signifies a bullish reversal.
5. All of these developments were occurring in the vicinity of the 2017 highs.

A Structural Shift⚑
The chart reflects a shift in structure following the wedge breakout, with higher highs and higher lows emerging. This type of structural change is generally considered bullish.

Bullish Outlook for the FutureπŸ’°
Assuming that the low has been established, the aforementioned alterations in behavior suggest the possibility of another bull market.
Presently, BTC appears to be within a rough range of 25,000 to 31,000. However, the chance of a shakeout at the lower end (around 24,750) cannot be ruled out. A failed breakdown of this level and then an upward reversal should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Alternatively, if BTC continues its trajectory without a shakeout, a definitive breakout above 31,500, followed by a successful retest, should also be interpreted as a buying opportunity. This scenario may lead to 46K or highs in the long run.

Bearish Scenario🐻
On the contrary, a decisive break down below 24,700 may pave the way for a drop to 19,650 or even lower.

Everything up there is for educational purpose only so,
✌🏻 PEACE OUT and keep those chain vibes strong! πŸ’ͺ

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JJ Singh
Moderator, TradingView

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