BITCOIN: 71 bars trend prediction (start of a new hype cycle?)
In front of you are 2 possible ways, how the next 2 to 3 motnths could play out. If we manage to break 9k again in the coming days i see following 2 scenarios that are likely to happen (based on past years of btc, 2013, 2014):
scenario A: we manage to break 9k again and hold it. This would be needed to build a new RSI floor level at 42-43 and gain strength to break through 10k end of may. We then would have a dip again sub 10k, but just for a short amount of time, as expected after the 10k barrier. We then follow the predicted lines up to 11.7k till end of july. This would be a healthy way to recover, not too slow and not too fast. It may even be enough to start a new hype cycle if we manage to break 12-13k along the path of scenario A.
scenario B: we would follow the actual beartrend down to 7k for a tripple bottom (feb, march, may) and then bounce off to ca. 8500 - 8900k. We might even touch 9k btc but are not able to crack it. (put "ITS NOT OVER 9000" meme here..) the disappointment would be big and throw us back down to 7.1 - 7.5k. But at the same time it would show us a flag pattern in a slightly uprising wedge and people will assume the price will break out soon, what actually might happen in july if enough traders/normies believe in it.
Ye i know.. people will say, you have no clue its crypto. And yes we are in a very volatile market. Yes this market is manipulated af. But then again, if you would have just looked closely at log pattern of the btc price over the past 8 years you could have predicted the crash in january. Most TA/FA sheeples calculated a drop of 40 to 50% in january after the big hype. What we didn't expect was a drop of almost 70%. (some alt coins even 85%.. rip) So let this be a "lesson learned". Previous years can help to predict some trends, and people will compare actual price movements to previous years again and again. That alone will make the price somewhat follow those predicted lines.
The only thing i can say with 100% certainty is, THE BUBBLE GRAPH MEME IS DEAD. It did not follow those lines till the end. We should have had a drop of almost 85% and then despair for a long time until we recover. Instead we did fall down to 7k (-65%) and then went quickly back up to 11.6k. Even the second drop in march/april went not further down than 6.3 to 6.4k btc. So this shows us we have more of a sideways trend pattern than full bear mode.
Ok i wrote enough.. let me know your thoughts about it. ;)
scenario A: we manage to break 9k again and hold it. This would be needed to build a new RSI floor level at 42-43 and gain strength to break through 10k end of may. We then would have a dip again sub 10k, but just for a short amount of time, as expected after the 10k barrier. We then follow the predicted lines up to 11.7k till end of july. This would be a healthy way to recover, not too slow and not too fast. It may even be enough to start a new hype cycle if we manage to break 12-13k along the path of scenario A.
scenario B: we would follow the actual beartrend down to 7k for a tripple bottom (feb, march, may) and then bounce off to ca. 8500 - 8900k. We might even touch 9k btc but are not able to crack it. (put "ITS NOT OVER 9000" meme here..) the disappointment would be big and throw us back down to 7.1 - 7.5k. But at the same time it would show us a flag pattern in a slightly uprising wedge and people will assume the price will break out soon, what actually might happen in july if enough traders/normies believe in it.
Ye i know.. people will say, you have no clue its crypto. And yes we are in a very volatile market. Yes this market is manipulated af. But then again, if you would have just looked closely at log pattern of the btc price over the past 8 years you could have predicted the crash in january. Most TA/FA sheeples calculated a drop of 40 to 50% in january after the big hype. What we didn't expect was a drop of almost 70%. (some alt coins even 85%.. rip) So let this be a "lesson learned". Previous years can help to predict some trends, and people will compare actual price movements to previous years again and again. That alone will make the price somewhat follow those predicted lines.
The only thing i can say with 100% certainty is, THE BUBBLE GRAPH MEME IS DEAD. It did not follow those lines till the end. We should have had a drop of almost 85% and then despair for a long time until we recover. Instead we did fall down to 7k (-65%) and then went quickly back up to 11.6k. Even the second drop in march/april went not further down than 6.3 to 6.4k btc. So this shows us we have more of a sideways trend pattern than full bear mode.
Ok i wrote enough.. let me know your thoughts about it. ;)
Comment:
i guess scenario B it is.. not exactly a match with my prediction in this idea.. but check out the one i made start of may -->
