Light Crude short trade update - stay in position
I posted a crude oil set-up as one of my first few posts on tradingview as when in the low-70s Crude was showing significant bearish RSI divergence and was clearly topping out a primary (or whatever scale) wave 3 up and would be correcting to create wave 4 with an ABC.
At that time I didn't post using the Nymex light crude CL1! chart (despite my own analysis having been done on the Nymex chart - my own paper trade (unpublished) shorted crude at $74.17 on the 4th of July). The wave formation on this commodity and the previous one I posted are quite different.
At this stage I believe we are only half-way through a zig-zag correction. What we know:
- There has been a 5-wave correction,
- This correction was followed by a smaller abc correction,
- All 3 abc waves seem to be present,
- If it was wave c - it has the required 5 waves of a wave c,
- Following the abc correction the price has already exceeded the wave (v) / (A) extreme - pointing to further correction needed,
- This appears to be followed by the formation of wave i and ii down.
These together seem to suggest that we have started wave 3 (iii) in a 5 wave wave (C) move downwards. The green box denotes where I would close this short (bear in ind that wave 5 of 5 tends to be extended in commodities) as a conservative estimate based on a 1:1 extension of wave (A) (extended from both the wave b and c extreme to get a range) as well as the 1.618 extension of wave i down. I will seek out a platform on which to trade this commodity due to this set-up. Because I am a little late, I would enter on a break below wave i ($66.92 low) down to catch wave iii, iv, and v down).
While I use different wave degrees I use them mostly to just denote smaller, larger scales, and sub-waves. I am not trying to be accurate with my wave degrees. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental anaysis.
At that time I didn't post using the Nymex light crude CL1! chart (despite my own analysis having been done on the Nymex chart - my own paper trade (unpublished) shorted crude at $74.17 on the 4th of July). The wave formation on this commodity and the previous one I posted are quite different.
At this stage I believe we are only half-way through a zig-zag correction. What we know:
- There has been a 5-wave correction,
- This correction was followed by a smaller abc correction,
- All 3 abc waves seem to be present,
- If it was wave c - it has the required 5 waves of a wave c,
- Following the abc correction the price has already exceeded the wave (v) / (A) extreme - pointing to further correction needed,
- This appears to be followed by the formation of wave i and ii down.
These together seem to suggest that we have started wave 3 (iii) in a 5 wave wave (C) move downwards. The green box denotes where I would close this short (bear in ind that wave 5 of 5 tends to be extended in commodities) as a conservative estimate based on a 1:1 extension of wave (A) (extended from both the wave b and c extreme to get a range) as well as the 1.618 extension of wave i down. I will seek out a platform on which to trade this commodity due to this set-up. Because I am a little late, I would enter on a break below wave i ($66.92 low) down to catch wave iii, iv, and v down).
While I use different wave degrees I use them mostly to just denote smaller, larger scales, and sub-waves. I am not trying to be accurate with my wave degrees. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental anaysis.
Trade closed manually
Close at $65 (I wasn't trading Crude - just following as my platform will only offer it tomorrow (I will look to go long)). Five impulse waves down have completed in wave C. The 1:1 extension wasn't met but crude oil has quite a tendency for shorted wave Cs - that's life . Wave 3 is not the shortest, wave 4 retraced well into wave 1 territory, so it could be termed a wave failure. I would guess that this wave failure hints at some underlying bullish pressure, so watch out at the pumps people.Note
*shortened* wave Cs
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.