Sunday Prep 10/3 - $ES/$SPY Here's How I'll be Trading this Week

BULLISH TO NEUTRAL: Broader Market Analysis starts with the ES. Last week we talked about the first red flag of many. The break of previous month lows. (Aug lows were broken in Sept). Now with Sept lows being broken in Oct already. I still don’t think there’s anything to panic about.. At least not yet. Why? Because we’re just pulling back into the Weekly 20 SMA.

I try to understand what timeframe we’re extended away from the 20 SMA. Oddly enough you’ll find support show up at this SMA. We’re not extended on the weekly anymore. The ugly setup on the daily would get me concerned IF we were extended from the 20 SMA on the weekly chart.. But we’re not.

I would like to see Oct be a narrow candle. Then in Nov stuff and come back under. I would like to see a lower low on a higher timeframe. That would be the red flag I look for.

The other thing that could happen is we just go sideways for a while. If this happens then the big move up will begin getting digested. Then I’ll formulate some long setups. Also, if we start to see some long setups gear up from here and we start making ATHs.

The way I’ll be playing this market this week:

If we gap up on Monday, I’ve got quite a few names on short watch.

If we gap DOWN on Monday then I’m hands off until we see some support show up somewhere around last week’s low.

I want to see Friday’s lows hold. If they don’t, it’s not the end of the world. I have some a support around 4200.