12/14 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead
📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish
Stay light on OPEX day due to the potential for choppy trading. Look for a potential base building in the 4756-83 range for a potential leg up to the 4804-08 zone. If 4756 fails, prepare for a potential pullback.
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a lot
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
📷 Snapshot
Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:
4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:
📉 Support Levels
📈 Resistance Levels
📝 Trading Plan
Bull Case Analysis
Scenario Overview:
Key Levels and Patterns:
Strategy and Risks:
Bear Case Analysis
Scenario Overview:
Key Levels and Patterns:
Strategy and Risks:
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Stay light on OPEX day due to the potential for choppy trading. Look for a potential base building in the 4756-83 range for a potential leg up to the 4804-08 zone. If 4756 fails, prepare for a potential pullback.
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a lot
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
- Markets rally strongly on FOMC Dot Plot forecasting 3 rates cuts totaling up to 0.9% in 2024.
- European Central Bank and the Bank of England each hold rates steady this morning.
📷 Snapshot
Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:
- EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.
- Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:
- EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.
- Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
📉 Support Levels
- Major: 4772, 4756, 4740-43, 4710-05, 4660-65
- Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670
📈 Resistance Levels
- Major: 4780-83, 4804-08, 4845, 4860-63
- Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838
📝 Trading Plan
Bull Case Analysis
Scenario Overview:
- Recent Trend: ES (S&P 500 futures) has experienced a strong bullish trend, marked by six consecutive green days.
- Bull Case Premise: Continuation of the uptrend through pattern formation and support maintenance.
Key Levels and Patterns:
- Support Zone: 4756, pivotal for bulls to maintain control.
- Target Range: 4756-4783, seen as a potential consolidation area.
- Upside Objective: A move towards the 4804-08 zone, acting as a magnet level.
Strategy and Risks:
- Pattern Building: Bulls expect ES to form a continuation pattern within the target range, setting the stage for another leg up.
- Risk of Breakdown: Failure to hold 4756 increases the risk of a backtest towards the 4710-05 area.
- Execution Caution: Traders should be wary of false breakouts and maintain strict risk management.
Bear Case Analysis
Scenario Overview:
- Bear Case Premise: A break below key support leading to a downward move.
Key Levels and Patterns:
- Critical Support: 4756, the level below which breakdown trades become viable.
- Target Short Entry: Around 4752, following a failed bounce at 4756.
- Profit Targets: First target at 4740-43, capturing the move below the day's low.
Strategy and Risks:
- Breakdown Trades: These are high risk/reward but have a low success rate (60% expected to fail).
- Execution Skill: Requires skill to execute successfully; not advisable for traders uncomfortable with these odds.
- Rule of Thumb: Avoid chasing the price; wait for a clear trade setup and reaction at the key level.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
