I believe an incredible amount of volatility is preparing to enter the market akin to 1929 and 1987. These beliefs are my own and not to be interpreted as financial advice. I see a significant risk of inflation looking forward.
My updated chart shows the market entering an area rife with resistance. I believe a correction is in order to either the black or red support line in May. Afterwards, I see a final push till August. I am of the belief that the weekly RSI resistance will hold. There is very little structure on this chart which creates immense downside risk.
Exhibit A: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix The incredible swings in GEX have not historically been witnessed since the inception of the indicator. An incredible amount of mounting pressure is building in the options market.
Exhibit B: www.currentmarketval...uffett-indicator.php Many choose to discount the buffett indicator as outdated. I believe this to be a critical mistake. While times have changed and the indicator may be somewhat miscalculated, I personally find it to still be an excellent quick look indicator view at the extremes. We are well beyond the extremes.
Exhibit C: www.finra.org/invest...ng/margin-statistics and www.advisorperspecti...ntinues-record-trend Margin debt has been sky rocketing and investors are extremely over-leveraged. More so then the capital they have to put up as collateral... This is a powder keg situation simply waiting for a spark. This creates a "panic" setup, where only a small correction can lead to a massive waterfall as margin calls occur and over-leveraged investors get wiped out. Michael burry has cited this data as well and discussed how a market crash is on the horizon. I don't believe in trusting others opinions on the market but when Dr. Burry shares his opinion, I do my homework.
Exhibit D: www.isabelnet.com/me...rket-capitalization/ Bears have been decimated and the market is in a state of euphoria. Everyone believes the "good times wont end" and that the market cant go down. Every man, woman, and child with an internet connection has a fresh hot take on the next big stock to pick. (shoeshine boy much?)
Exhibit E: The inverted yield curve has been the best indicator for a recession since its inception. I have linked the URL to a traders idea who mapped it out extremely well with excellent points in the "related ideas" section.
Full Disclosure, I am positioned in UVXY.
Trade smart and be safe.
S+S
TTT
My updated chart shows the market entering an area rife with resistance. I believe a correction is in order to either the black or red support line in May. Afterwards, I see a final push till August. I am of the belief that the weekly RSI resistance will hold. There is very little structure on this chart which creates immense downside risk.
Exhibit A: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix The incredible swings in GEX have not historically been witnessed since the inception of the indicator. An incredible amount of mounting pressure is building in the options market.
Exhibit B: www.currentmarketval...uffett-indicator.php Many choose to discount the buffett indicator as outdated. I believe this to be a critical mistake. While times have changed and the indicator may be somewhat miscalculated, I personally find it to still be an excellent quick look indicator view at the extremes. We are well beyond the extremes.
Exhibit C: www.finra.org/invest...ng/margin-statistics and www.advisorperspecti...ntinues-record-trend Margin debt has been sky rocketing and investors are extremely over-leveraged. More so then the capital they have to put up as collateral... This is a powder keg situation simply waiting for a spark. This creates a "panic" setup, where only a small correction can lead to a massive waterfall as margin calls occur and over-leveraged investors get wiped out. Michael burry has cited this data as well and discussed how a market crash is on the horizon. I don't believe in trusting others opinions on the market but when Dr. Burry shares his opinion, I do my homework.
Exhibit D: www.isabelnet.com/me...rket-capitalization/ Bears have been decimated and the market is in a state of euphoria. Everyone believes the "good times wont end" and that the market cant go down. Every man, woman, and child with an internet connection has a fresh hot take on the next big stock to pick. (shoeshine boy much?)
Exhibit E: The inverted yield curve has been the best indicator for a recession since its inception. I have linked the URL to a traders idea who mapped it out extremely well with excellent points in the "related ideas" section.
Full Disclosure, I am positioned in UVXY.
Trade smart and be safe.
S+S
TTT
Comment:
everything still going according to the chart.....
Comment:
This may take till September or October. Expect a last push by bulls to possibly 4650 that provides optimal short entry.
It has worked for the major crashes since 2018 and is forecasting we may be fast approaching the next top.
imgur.com/Pz7G0Y0