Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024
Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Highly uncertain due to major geopolitical headline risk over the weekend. Expect significant volatility and potential for large gaps up or down at the Sunday open.
Important Note: The escalating tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to cause significant market disruptions. BE PREPARED for a wide range of outcomes, substantial gaps on the open, and rapidly changing market conditions.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5163 (major), 5155, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major)
Major Supports: 5120, 5115, 5108, 5102-5097 (major), 5091, 5082 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5177 (major), 5185, 5192-95 (major), 5203 (major)
Major Resistances: 5218 (major), 5228-30 (major), 5245 (major), 5262
Trading Strategy
Weekend Headlines: Be prepared for anything related to the Iran/Israel situation. This news will dominate market reaction.
Adaptability is Key: Market conditions could change rapidly, prioritize flexibility and risk management.
Sunday Open: Focus on how the market opens and reacts to the news. Large gaps are possible in either direction.
Long Opportunities: Due to the high risk, only consider longs after the initial reaction and if a stable support zone forms. Potential bids at 5163, reclaiming 5155, or (depending on the open) reclaiming 5177. Emphasis on failed breakdowns.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of any breakdown levels if a strong sell-off occurs. Potentially 5177, 5219, or 5228 if those levels are reached.
Knife-Catch Mode: If necessary, use the knife-catch protocol for longs, with small size and emphasis on failed-breakdowns.
Bull Case
De-escalation: A move towards de-escalation or resolution of the Iran situation could lead to a sharp rebound.
Reclaiming 5177: If 5177 is reclaimed with acceptance above, bulls may drive a recovery towards targets of 5195, 5202, 5219.
Bear Case
Escalation of Conflict: Continued escalation of tensions could lead to a significant market sell-off.
Breakdown of 5163: A failure of 5163 opens up downside targets. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown, then consider shorting for a move down the levels.
News: Top Stories for April 15th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis:
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominate headlines and overshadow all other news.
Potential repercussions for the global economy, oil prices, and markets.
Impact on Market Outlook:
Uncertainty and volatility dominate the April outlook.
Key economic dates and reports may be less impactful given the news focus.
Earnings Reports:
Earnings season continues, but market focus may be diverted by the geopolitical situation.
Other Market and Economic News:
Monitor secondary news sources for updates on the Iran/Israel situation and potential market impacts.
Reminder: The weekend geopolitical developments introduce extreme uncertainty into the markets. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to quickly adapt your trading strategy.
Market Sentiment: Highly uncertain due to major geopolitical headline risk over the weekend. Expect significant volatility and potential for large gaps up or down at the Sunday open.
Important Note: The escalating tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to cause significant market disruptions. BE PREPARED for a wide range of outcomes, substantial gaps on the open, and rapidly changing market conditions.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5163 (major), 5155, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major)
Major Supports: 5120, 5115, 5108, 5102-5097 (major), 5091, 5082 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5177 (major), 5185, 5192-95 (major), 5203 (major)
Major Resistances: 5218 (major), 5228-30 (major), 5245 (major), 5262
Trading Strategy
Weekend Headlines: Be prepared for anything related to the Iran/Israel situation. This news will dominate market reaction.
Adaptability is Key: Market conditions could change rapidly, prioritize flexibility and risk management.
Sunday Open: Focus on how the market opens and reacts to the news. Large gaps are possible in either direction.
Long Opportunities: Due to the high risk, only consider longs after the initial reaction and if a stable support zone forms. Potential bids at 5163, reclaiming 5155, or (depending on the open) reclaiming 5177. Emphasis on failed breakdowns.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of any breakdown levels if a strong sell-off occurs. Potentially 5177, 5219, or 5228 if those levels are reached.
Knife-Catch Mode: If necessary, use the knife-catch protocol for longs, with small size and emphasis on failed-breakdowns.
Bull Case
De-escalation: A move towards de-escalation or resolution of the Iran situation could lead to a sharp rebound.
Reclaiming 5177: If 5177 is reclaimed with acceptance above, bulls may drive a recovery towards targets of 5195, 5202, 5219.
Bear Case
Escalation of Conflict: Continued escalation of tensions could lead to a significant market sell-off.
Breakdown of 5163: A failure of 5163 opens up downside targets. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown, then consider shorting for a move down the levels.
News: Top Stories for April 15th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis:
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominate headlines and overshadow all other news.
Potential repercussions for the global economy, oil prices, and markets.
Impact on Market Outlook:
Uncertainty and volatility dominate the April outlook.
Key economic dates and reports may be less impactful given the news focus.
Earnings Reports:
Earnings season continues, but market focus may be diverted by the geopolitical situation.
Other Market and Economic News:
Monitor secondary news sources for updates on the Iran/Israel situation and potential market impacts.
Reminder: The weekend geopolitical developments introduce extreme uncertainty into the markets. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to quickly adapt your trading strategy.
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