Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major)
Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus
Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction.
Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible.
Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance.
FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement.
Bull Case
Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle.
Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move.
Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces.
Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction.
News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024
FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts
Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets.
Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown.
Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations.
Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts.
Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.
Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major)
Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus
Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction.
Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible.
Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance.
FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement.
Bull Case
Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle.
Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move.
Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces.
Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction.
News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024
FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts
Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets.
Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown.
Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations.
Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts.
Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.