Eurogroup and Trump: Economic challenges in 2025
The Eurogroup has kicked off the year with a strategy meeting in Brussels, coinciding with the inauguration of Donald Trump for his second term as president of the United States. The meeting, chaired by Paschal Donohoe, seeks to address the Eurozone's main economic challenges, including climate change, disruptive technologies and geopolitical uncertainties, with a special focus on transatlantic relations. Spain, represented by Minister Carlos Cuerpo, sees this meeting as key to strengthening European unity in the face of possible changes in U.S. policy. In addition, the forum will discuss innovations in wholesale payments and advances in the digital euro, reflecting its commitment to financial modernization. On the other hand, although outside the official agenda, France's fiscal deficit assessment will be highlighted, as it seeks to reduce it to 5.4% of GDP by 2025.
The Eurogroup starts the year balancing internal and external priorities in a context of high global uncertainty. The Eurogroup meeting and Donald Trump's inauguration may have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair, as both events generate uncertainty and expectations in financial markets.
1. Transatlantic relations and geopolitics: Trump's policies could influence U.S.-European trade and economic relations. If there is a perceived protectionist stance or increased tensions, this could weaken the euro against the dollar as investors seek safer assets in the US.
2. Technological innovations and the digital euro: Developments discussed at the Eurogroup, such as the digital euro, could build confidence in the modernization of the European financial system. This, in the medium and long term, could strengthen the euro if markets interpret that Europe is making progress in its financial competitiveness.
3. Fiscal policy in Europe: The lack of consensus on fiscal plans, as in the case of France, could raise concerns about economic stability in the Eurozone. This could put downward pressure on the euro if markets perceive that fiscal policies are not sufficiently sound.
4. Market sentiment: If the Eurogroup meeting shows unity and defines clear strategies in the face of global challenges, the euro could strengthen against the dollar. However, any sign of internal disagreement could be interpreted negatively, affecting the EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis EUR/USD
1. Trend: Sideways consolidation with possible breakout.
2. Supports: 1.02603 and 1.1809 (key).
3. Resistances: 1.03303, 1.03524 (key).
4. Indicators:
o RSI at 60.99% slight oversold.
o MACD has crossed Signal softened at 2am.
o 50 moving average has crossed with the 100 today at 6am. On track to cross with the 200 to indicate possible uptrend.
5. Scenarios:
o On the upside: Breaking 1.0900 may lead to 1.1000.
o Down: Losing 1.0800 points to 1.0730.
6. Key: In summary, the impact on EUR/USD will depend on expectations about Trump's policy and the markets' perception of the Eurogroup's ability to address economic and geopolitical challenges.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The Eurogroup starts the year balancing internal and external priorities in a context of high global uncertainty. The Eurogroup meeting and Donald Trump's inauguration may have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair, as both events generate uncertainty and expectations in financial markets.
1. Transatlantic relations and geopolitics: Trump's policies could influence U.S.-European trade and economic relations. If there is a perceived protectionist stance or increased tensions, this could weaken the euro against the dollar as investors seek safer assets in the US.
2. Technological innovations and the digital euro: Developments discussed at the Eurogroup, such as the digital euro, could build confidence in the modernization of the European financial system. This, in the medium and long term, could strengthen the euro if markets interpret that Europe is making progress in its financial competitiveness.
3. Fiscal policy in Europe: The lack of consensus on fiscal plans, as in the case of France, could raise concerns about economic stability in the Eurozone. This could put downward pressure on the euro if markets perceive that fiscal policies are not sufficiently sound.
4. Market sentiment: If the Eurogroup meeting shows unity and defines clear strategies in the face of global challenges, the euro could strengthen against the dollar. However, any sign of internal disagreement could be interpreted negatively, affecting the EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis EUR/USD
1. Trend: Sideways consolidation with possible breakout.
2. Supports: 1.02603 and 1.1809 (key).
3. Resistances: 1.03303, 1.03524 (key).
4. Indicators:
o RSI at 60.99% slight oversold.
o MACD has crossed Signal softened at 2am.
o 50 moving average has crossed with the 100 today at 6am. On track to cross with the 200 to indicate possible uptrend.
5. Scenarios:
o On the upside: Breaking 1.0900 may lead to 1.1000.
o Down: Losing 1.0800 points to 1.0730.
6. Key: In summary, the impact on EUR/USD will depend on expectations about Trump's policy and the markets' perception of the Eurogroup's ability to address economic and geopolitical challenges.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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