The pound has enjoyed a day of upside, as the continued struggles in driving down inflation come back into play once again despite recent GBP weakness. The GBPUSD pair looks particularly interesting given the impending FOMC meeting. Markets currently price in a 98% chance of a rate hike today, meaning that the dollar volatility will likely be driven more by the outlook for future hikes than anything else. The pricing for another hike before year-end stands at 35%, with 65% expecting that we will be one and done today. A nod towards another likely hike this year could provide strength for the dollar, while a more dovish stance could bring fresh dollar weakness. The GBPUSD pair has rebounded significantly from trendline support, which has been accompanied by the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The wider bullish trend therefore looks likely to persist. As such, further strength looks likely from here. A break through Fibonacci and trendline support would be required to start building a more bearish picture.
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