As expected, no breakthrough occurred last week while gold was moving sideways around 2380. The market reacted to news regarding Iran & Israel last week; however, the reaction has been diminishing since Iran's first retaliation. When Israel responded to Iran's attack during Friday's Asian session, the gold price failed to reach beyond 2420 and quickly resumed its position below 2400. Considering these market responses, it's unlikely that geopolitical news will drive gold prices to a new high this week.
Keep an eye on Friday's PCE inflation data. Although there have been signs of inflation rebounding in the US recently, inflation is far from out of control, and the current condition is close to what Yellen mentioned in early March. Volatility may increase towards the end of the week, but I think the market may need more evident for it to reverse.
1-Hr Chart - The uplifting trend has slowed down since the price escaped the uptrend channel(1) last Thursday, and it is currently bound by the sideways range of 2355-2400(2). As this week progresses, we can expect the range to widen to 2318-2430(3).
Daily Chart - The S-T support is now at the 10-day MA; if it is clear this support, we can aim the next support at around 2330, near the 20-day MA. The gold price has made two attempts above 2400, but currently, the selling has dominated above this level. If one day the price closes above 2400(6) on the daily chart, it would indicate that the selling pressure above 2400 has been cleared, signalling a potential upward breakthrough.
S-T resistances:
2388-90
2380
2370-72
Market price: 2369
S-T supports:
2360
2355
2350
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Keep an eye on Friday's PCE inflation data. Although there have been signs of inflation rebounding in the US recently, inflation is far from out of control, and the current condition is close to what Yellen mentioned in early March. Volatility may increase towards the end of the week, but I think the market may need more evident for it to reverse.
1-Hr Chart - The uplifting trend has slowed down since the price escaped the uptrend channel(1) last Thursday, and it is currently bound by the sideways range of 2355-2400(2). As this week progresses, we can expect the range to widen to 2318-2430(3).
Daily Chart - The S-T support is now at the 10-day MA; if it is clear this support, we can aim the next support at around 2330, near the 20-day MA. The gold price has made two attempts above 2400, but currently, the selling has dominated above this level. If one day the price closes above 2400(6) on the daily chart, it would indicate that the selling pressure above 2400 has been cleared, signalling a potential upward breakthrough.
S-T resistances:
2388-90
2380
2370-72
Market price: 2369
S-T supports:
2360
2355
2350
If you like my work, please give me a thumbs up 👍.
Feel free to leave a comment; share your thoughts 🤟.
P. To
P. To
Daily Chart - Gold prices fell faster than we anticipated at the beginning of the week, reaching our 20-day MA target 24 hours earlier than expected. The lowest hit 2291 yesterday but rebounded quickly to 2330 at the US market session before the day's end, forming a relatively long downward wick(2). A S-T rebound should occur over the next 48 hours. As long as the resistance at yesterday's US session high of 2330-31 is cleared, the upper target can be set at 2355 - the 10-day MA(3).