MrRenev

Economic, geopolitic, monetary news. Issue No 2.

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
The second release is here! I think I am going to do this regularly, as I learn more I'm writting down a list and I release an idea with around 5 ... how to call them ... you know, the thing ;) at once.

The format is I separate each you know the thing in its own paragraph, I write a small bloc, and I leave a screenshot with a summary and some comments at the end.
So if there is too much text you can skip to the screenshot. This is the format, I can't do better than this, I don't really want to leave trading view.
It's sort of the same magazines do, except they have a couple of screenshots and can highlight pieces of text, when it's in bold and between paragraphs and a different color and big I don't know the name of this, you know, the thing.

I promise in those ideas I will always put truth before fact.


1- CEO of Blackrock Larry Fink very negative view
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Blackrock is the mega multi trillion AUM institution. They write guidance letters to CEOs of the world.
I think they are one of the grey intermediaries between the FED and the Government facilitating monetizing the debt and enriching themselves on the back of the public including the poor and including the rich.
Well I don't think they are, they are it's official. The non official part is the "steal the public purchasing power" part.

Larry in a private exchange with his investors from a few weeks ago, according to Bloomberg has been warning about high tax rates, of mass bankruptcies, he expects 25% of the 30 million small US businesses that have been having a hard time getting relief to close permanently by the end of the year.
I saw somewhere that over 50% of business expected to go bankrupt (doesn't mean they close permanently), and some were too broke to go bankrupt!

Larry, which is jewish, and has been enriching himself while the 90% was getting poorer - arguably at their expense via the government-fed scam and advising CEOs to do buybacks -, has voiced concerns on a rise of nationalism. Can't make that up. Ah Finky. Hitler all over again, I've been predicting this for years. Look how the nationalist side (Trump) is going full socialism "emergency free stuff" now. What is Nationalism + Socialism?

My best guess is WW3 starts with the USA invading the middle east, and an iranian russian and eventually chinese retaliation.
I think WW3 probably won't start but who knows what direction it all can go. Antisemitism has been on the rise, the media hasn't covered it because perpetrators were most of the time black, but it's here and growing. Same old, same old.



2- Venezuela sues the BOE for gold!
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Maduro, following Chávez policies and the situation he inherited, has ran out of his own people wealth to steal to pay for the extremely popular "free stuff" they got between 2003 (start of the Bolivarian missions) and 2010.
They paid their "free stuff" ten fold and now have nothing left. "Just taxing the rich because they have a magical horn of plenty" hasn't worked out mysteriously.
I'm making an idea about Venezuela to explain this soon. It will sound extremely similar to the USA and it's normal.

So now that Maduro ran out of all the wealth in the country, he is turning to other countries to steal wealth from.
Some say you should not laugh at others pain, but they brought this on themselves. They were dancing around in joy 10 years ago and ignoring "pessimistic perma bears".
There is a quote, I think it started in France after the revolution "If you have never been a socialist by 22 you have no heart. If you still are a socialist after 28 you have no head.".
In germany less than 23% of the population is under 25 and 22% are over 65, in Venezuela in 2001 37% were under 15 (not 25, 15) less than 4% were over 65, and an estimate has their 2011 population at 29% under 15, and 27% between 15 and 29 years old! So they have this excuse.

What british gold? They have almost no reserves left since the genius politician Gordon Brown sold at the very bottom in 1999-2002.

Maduro wants 80 tons of gold , the opposition asks britain not to release it. BOE does not recognize Maduro government.

I said britain bank had no gold but the truth is they are the second biggest holder (after the New York FED that stole it in 1971), it's just that it's not theirs.
According the the BOE site they hold 400,000 bars. $200 billion. Trillions are stored in fort knox. In 2017 Germany has brought home hundreds of tons from the NY FED & Banque de France back to their own vaults. So who owns what who holds what I'm not sure here.

Do note that Venezuela asked for GOLD . Not ponzi schemes. Not US DOLLARS. Not Bitcoin . Not petrocoins. GOLD .




3- Fed extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks
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Minutes from the 28-29 April meeting have finally been released at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp...
(Released May 20, 2020)

"In light of the significant uncertainty and downside risks associated with the evolution of the coronavirus outbreak, how much the economy would weaken, and how long it would take to recover, the staff judged that a more pessimistic projection was no less plausible than the baseline forecast."

"Participants commented that, in addition to weighing heavily on economic activity in the near term, the economic effects of the pandemic created an extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks to economic activity in the medium term."

"an array of remaining risks, including those in corporate credit markets, emerging markets, and mortgage markets. In corporate credit markets, concerns about potential defaults were rising, and ratings agencies had put on negative watch or downgraded many issuers. In emerging markets, the steep decline in commodity prices was exacerbating financial pressures for some emerging market economies (EMEs), which were also facing strains arising from capital outflows and a reduction in trade activity. And in mortgage markets, the likely increase in mortgage delinquencies associated with forbearance polices and an eventual rise in defaults were sources of concern for bank and nonbank lenders."

No wonder they waited so long to release it. They're always ridiculously positive.
It's just pages and pages of what some might call negativity and pessimism, what I'd call reality in the current situation.

They are going for "whatever it takes" (so Venezuela & Weimar republic), and are looking at non conventional "solutions" (so even worse than Weimar & Venezuela).

Elon Musk explained it "to all the fools out there" (nice as he's getting pissed he drops the mask and acts direspectful I am so proud):
"If no one makes stuff there is no stuff. You can't legislate stuff into existence" or something like that.

They're going to absolutely destroy the USA. These politicians, I swear. If we survive that will offer us very cheap foreign stocks in an extremely pessimistic world, all good. If we survive.




4- The USA have not had inflation yet. Because the "free money" has not yet been spent!
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The Treasury Department has distributed less than 8% (37.5) of the $500 billion they unlocked for bailing out businesses.
It's anyones guess what politicians will do with all that imaginary money next.

Americans savings 1-2 months ago skyrocketed to their highest level since 1981 (and they were at their lowest before that!).
It's a march observation, I speculate that this number went up, and most of their free checks when possible has gone to a savings account.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE...

Even with foreign nations dropping the usd, unless they dump it all at once, the money bazooka of the government + fed will not affect the public if that money is not spent (this includes the local bank lending some of the savings).

The natural and best thing people would make is save ahead of tough times. For once they are right.

Now for some reason (low IQ ), the powers that be want to fight deflation. Ye man, people saving money and prices going down is bad!
We want the public to not be able to afford a bag of potatoes and starve! That way they HAVE to work for us and sell their bodies and souls.




5- French central bank project uses blockchain
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My last job was working for french bank Societe Generale. I quit in 2018. Every one was so obsessed with Bitcoin & Ripple.
We were getting internal communications from the directors that "crypto was the future", "the blockchain was wonderful".
I had to quit. I could not keep working for these idiots 🙂
Oh by the way Societe General is the bank that gambled and lost 5 billions with trader Jerome Kerviel years ago.
They were overly obsessed with security and checking what every one was doing when I was there lol.

So go figure, the banque de France & socgen have been playing with crypto.
Using a central bank digital currency ( CBDC ) the socgen issued 40 million euros worth of bonds in the form of tokens on a public blockchain this month. The 14 May.

This crypto is a crypto "de gros", they want to use it for big payments.
For the dirty plebes down there they'd make a separate crypto.

The Banque de France reminds that only the tech changes, and it won't allow them to issue money without creating debt, nor to eliminate the existing debt.

Ye, I heard that one before.

I think we really need a gold standard. Why would anyone want to let someone control the money supply?

Let them do what they want. Maybe they think the population won't notice. But things are going faster. Chavez was old but not that old and died before the people understood they got fleeced. But it only took about 10 years. If they live more than 10 years, their heads could end up on pikes. Their call.




6- UK first ever negative bond, several countries lower their rates, PBOC might monetize the debt
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And here it is. For the first time, the UK issued a negative bond.

Turkish Central bank drops their rate. Again.
South Africa, Lesotho, BOJ, plenty of african countries, ok I'm not making a list, are dropping rates.

Economists in China are saying "the PBoC should monetise fiscal deficits". Haha.




Sorry for all the bad news, I'm not the one creating them.
The positive things are laughing at people that suffer BY THEIR OWN FAULT, and hey when everything crashes we get some very cheap non US companies we can buy. Let the dumb money chase the US bottom.

It's not really bad news for traders, we make money regardless of the direction it goes. So whatever not my problem.
I can point at it but I can't change the world. I can pretend to be sad & angry to not look heartless, but tbh I don't really care.
Even if I really got upset by something, in 5 minutes I'll be loudly laughing at some dumb bagholder or something.
The world will always have dumb rules and there will always be people that can adapt to those rules. And the sheep will always lose.
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

Comments

I appreciate your hard work.
+4 Reply
In Italy, they are thinking to do the same thing as china , LOL DEMOCRACY
Popular Republic Of Italy
+2 Reply
The best analysis on tradingview. please stay with us during these times
+1 Reply
Like because the effort you put in your post idea
+1 Reply
so conclusion, buy gold?
+1 Reply
@Jad-87, if you can hold it and later exchange it, they will makes laws against owning gold.
Reply
MrRenev Jad-87
@Jad-87,
1- Guns & food & water
2- A bit of liquid assets (paper cash & gold coins, maybe even cigarettes, anything with value that can be exchange quickly)
3- Knowing a skill, knowing how to get food in the forest, knowing how to trade etc
4- If wealthy best to have most of it in hard to confiscate unliquid assets. I wouldn't go crazy on gold because they can just seize it, some in vaults, some physical. Everything going to crash anyway, could hold cash equivalent to buy later but care inflation, could also already hold some cheap foreign stock. Idk I'm not that wealthy yet so I didn't think about it too much, I'm focussed on growing my account and I hold several currencies, if inflation starts I don't think it happens overnight and I'm watching 247 & hopefully I'll see it coming.
Reply
Bro I like your work. But as a Venezuelan I clarify something for you, Nicolas maduro has no problem accepting pounds, euros, dollars, bitcoin. He just sold GOLD Good delivery to Iran to send some fuel shipments valued at 45 million dollars. Supposedly we have 6,500 million US dollars in gold in RESERVe, but as these are thieves, I doubt that this amount is there. England didnt give him anything because he doesnt recognize the government as maduro, because he kidnapped us all in a false election. the second, because the first comes from 2013. Maduro signs wherever it is so that those 80 tons of gold can be paid whatever, it doesnt matter if they give him the gold or not. We Venezuelans need that money ASAP, however if they give it to maduro they will probably get half of that amount through their testaferros. I prefer that he stay in the English bank until we regain control. We are a failed country. I am with you in all other points
Reply
MrRenev elliotcule
@elliotcule, He'd use most of the gold to pay debts and the military or what?
Reply
elliotcule MrRenev
@MrRenev, Venezuela had a GDP of 500B$ in 2008, almost 350B in 2012 and now hopefully we could reach 45B. we talk in a ten-year cycle, the spraying of 90% of the size of the economy. 2020 gross inflow of money I calculated it at no less than 15B. DESTROYED 3 MDB at almost 0.7MDB OIL , the BCV creates bolivars just as the EDF creates $, with those bolivars internally buying the kilo of gold between 30 thousand and 40 thousand dollars with bolivars, then resell that discounted gold via Africa with Russian and Turkish connections. With that marginal flow and cash, they pay for the food they give away in something called clap to keep the population slightly so that it doesn't starve. Of those 15B gross entry, almost 5B was for the remittances that sent the 5 million Venezuelans that are part of the diaspora, only now that flow was cut by the covid because it is an unsqualified labor hand mostly abroad. Another dynamic of the economy in Venezuela is savings on serious currencies abroad of Venezuelans. We could be talking about 300B.
Reply
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