Gold Trade forecast

rajnish_jana Updated   
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Forecast of Gold and Analysis for future target dates.

Gold is Currently trading at 1712 levels on 1st Sept 2022 at 12am IST.

What we have here is a typical formation of Elliot waves in which 5 waves are already completed and we are in process of formation of corrective ABC pattern in which wave B is likely appearing to be in completion stage.
So, from here we are targeting the formation of Wave C and by analysis we will find the time and price level where the Wave C is likely to be completed.

The Elliot wave started on 18th March 2022 with a Daily close at 2050.17
The 5th wave completed on 21st July 2022 with a Bullish open at 1696.61

1) When we plot the Fib based trend line from 18th Mar to 21st July, a correction time range (0.382 to 0.618) is falling in the range of 12 Sept 2022 to 13 Oct 2022.
Red lines plotted on the chart.
2) When we make alternate Fib time projection (ATP) from corrective pattern of Wave 5 to Wave A, we have 3 different date projections.
Purple lines plotted on the chart
a) 14th Sept 2022 (0.618)
b) 22nd Sept 2022 (1.00)
c) 6th Oct 2022 (1.618)
The Alternate time projections (ATP) have narrowed down the dates to the range of 14th Sept to 6th Oct and eliminated 2 days in Sept (12th and 13th Sept) and 7 days of Oct (7th to 13th Oct) of Fib retracement time zone calculated in 1)

3) A Low to High cycle were formed till now.
a) Wave 1 to Wave 2 (23 bars)(33 days) - Corrective waves
b) Wave 3 to Wave 4 (20 bars)(28 days) - Corrective waves
c) Wave 5 to Wave A (16 bars)(22 days) - Motive waves

There is a high probability that Wave B to Wave C will form between 22 days to 33 days, i.e., 22nd Sept to 3rd Oct.
This calculation has further narrowed down our target days which was calculated earlier in ATP.

All above calculations are done to calculate the Time retracement. A range of date in future time where the price will retrace.

4) The following calculation is based on Fib Price retracement levels.
When we select the entire Trend from Wave 0 to Wave 5, we get the Internal retracement Fib levels.
When we plot Alternate price projections (APP), similar to ATP in which we measure Wave A for Fib Levels and Plot those Fib levels from Wave B.
When we plot some external Fib retracement levels from Wave 5 to Wave A.
We get the following checklist.

Sr No. Internal retracement Alternate price projections External Fib retracement levels
a) (0.382) 1831.67 (1.00) 1818.82 (1.272) 1827.06
b) (0.5) 1873.39 (1.618) 1884.38 (1.618) 1858.98

We have 2 different price zones where there is a high probability of Wave C completion.
1) 1827.06 to 1831.67 (4.61 pips)
2) 1858.98 to 1873.39 (14.41 pips)

Lets see how it transpires in future.

Trade active
Order cancelled:
Setup failed as Market price took out wave B low.

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