BME:IAG   INTL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA ORD EUR0.50 (CDI)
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Comments

Brilliant TA, thank you!
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Merc, love that content. Can you please give an update on DJI or SPX? Hope you have a good day
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Hi, is “EXPE” stock the same trend? Expedia
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Thanks for the video once again, Merc - I enjoy your pragmatism. Our gain (opportunity to invest in Airlines) is someone else’s loss. Airlines represent a great set-up for new buyers, but it's going to be extremely difficult (even for buyers of airline stocks that bought, say at the 2015 highs) to generate even reasonable CAGR of free cash flow over the next 3-5 years. I am not sure about the technical set-up, but the airlines are most certainly entering a phase where their cost of capital exceeds their return on invested capital, and probably by a very healthy margin. That 90th passenger (out of 100 per plane - "hypothetical"), and having 90+ consistently, is the difference between having a positive capital structure, versus one that deteriorates.

For me, I can't convince myself that demand for airline seats will be > the current supply, post covid. Moreover, I actually don't see the demand side to be problematic at all; the next 3-5 years will be a great time for air-travel. There was way too much supply in the pre covid environment, both in human airfare and freight airfare. For this conclusion, I looked at percent change in available seat miles year over year relative to percent change in passenger load factor year over year. This has actually been a big issue over the past few years, even in a pre covid environment, in conjunction with a broad increase amongst airlines of unscheduled travel miles.
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I see the same company in London and NY. Why u prefer at London stock?
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