BullishLine

Is IRCTC ready to burst ?

BullishLine Updated   
NSE:IRCTC   INDIAN RAIL TOUR CORP LTD
Hello, guys. I hope you are doing well. Today, we will take a deep dive into IRCTC. Please read until the end to gain a complete understanding of this stock and its potentiality.

The chart is self-explanatory, so we will keep the technical analysis brief. The stock had been consolidating in a descending triangle pattern for the past two years. After a really big move It has corrected by 50%. Recently, it broke out of this pattern and has started forming a new ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential upcoming breakout.

Fundamental:-
In terms of fundamentals, it's needless to say that it is a government owned company, authorized exclusively by the Indian government to provide online railway tickets, catering services, and packaged drinking water at railway stations and on trains in India.

Revenue Breakout As per 2022 data:-
Internet Ticketing: Approximately 54%
Catering: Approximately 27%
Railneer (Packaged Drinking Water): Approximately 9%
Tourism: Approximately 8%
State Teerth: Approximately 2%

Future Planes:-
>>Company plans to enter the budget hotel service industry.
>>Company intends to establish an e-marketplace offering services such as bill payment, recharges, and other third-party services, including online insurance purchases.
>>The company has plans to explore segments such as Helicopter Travel and medical tourism.
>>The company also plans to expand its non-rail based tourism offerings, including corporate travel business, cruise packages, river packages, and air ticket services.

Financials:-
>>The company is almost debt-free.
>>It's anticipated that the company will perform well in the upcoming quarter.
>>Over the last 5 years, the company has consistently achieved a strong profit growth of 34.9% annually.
>>The company has a solid track record of return on equity (ROE) with a 3-year ROE of 34.6%.
>>The company has consistently maintained a healthy dividend payout of 43.0%.
>>FII, DII holdings are still increasing.

Key Risks:-
I have mentioned all the positive aspects of the company, but there are some key risks associated with the company that you should be aware of:

1.The company is government-owned, which means it can be highly sensitive to both positive and negative news. Any adverse news can lead to a significant decline in its stock price.
2.This stock also experienced price manipulation in 2021.
3. If any pandemic situation comes it can experience a substantial correction.


My commentary:-
We have recently observed that railway-based companies have started to gain momentum. Now, the question is, will IRCTC follow the same? My answer would be that it's possible because if the price breaks the recent pattern with strong volume, then it can potentially make a significant move.

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Note: This is for informational purposes only. Do your own research before investing.
Comment:
After a good breakout move, the stock has witnessed a significant sell-off this week. Those who have already bought can wait, as it appears to be a normal pullback. This kind of retracement is common when a stock breaks out after a long period; some investors might have taken partial profits. Overall, this stock has a lot of potential to provide good returns in the long run.

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