Kinnari_Prajapati
Short

Expected Spike fall on MCDOWELL if everything is ok.

NSE:MCDOWELL_N   UNITED SPIRITS
  • The extension seems in timeCycle at (d) excess.
  • If (d) is excess, but not breakout, for the seller risk and reward ratio is much higher for the short side.
    At 563 nearby, the attraction of seller can for the target at control price 555-552 and also 547.5.
  • While the short selling volume should no be higher than prior high and expected spike fall.
Keep Rs .1 of the stop to loss with prior high price only.
Comment: See, Spike happened as expected...!
CMP 547
Trade closed: target reached: As expected target achieved.
Trade closed: target reached: We have seen solid fall in WIPRO.
I dont want to induce any negative sentiments on anyone but the rationale behind shorting isn't convincing. If you look at swing perspective, not a single swing is taken out yet. And trend lines are always possible to be drawn with multiple touches. I will argue this is more of rectangle breakout than value area. Let me show this in a chart,

Reply
swami007 swami007
@swami007, In this chart you can see the touches are clean and there is good rejection. Target mostly is the range of the rectangle, so in this case it will be around 570+. One more important thing, Value area or multiple touches on trendlines are pitchfork concepts. Rectangle drawn here is also seen as value area or action/reaction line. As per Peter Brandt, Horizontal line breakouts are more valid than diagonal line breakouts. I wont consider this trade for one simple reason, forget the analysis, most important thing is you need a stop.Please avoid going cheap. A stop should protect your position against any spike so always consider ATR as well in determining your stop. Ask yourself, where is the structure behind which i can protect myself? If such structure exists, you can hide behind it as stops if not, better consider other trade. This comment is not judge anyone, its just a constructive comment nothing more nothing less..cheers !!
+1 Reply
@swami007, Thank you very much for great comment.
Reply
@swami007, Spike happened as expected...
Reply
swami007 Kinnari_Prajapati
@Kinnari_Prajapati, Good Luck :)
Reply
Your analysis are really great
Reply
@ElizaWilson, thanks for your comment to appreciate me.
Reply
ElizaWilson Kinnari_Prajapati
@Kinnari_Prajapati, your welcome
Reply
Very well explained
+2 Reply
HemangiWorlikar ElizaWilson
@ElizaWilson, I ll wait for doji. Nice explanation. Agreed.
+1 Reply
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