26 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | A trend reversal in store?
Today’s gap up opening and the race towards 19825 took out my stop loss. From last Friday we were short on Nifty, this stop loss hit proves to me that the bears are short lived in our market.
Nifty50 went up 147pts ~ 0.75% from the prev. close enough to take out the 19800 levels where I had placed the protective stop. The main reason for the rally was the boost in RIL, ITC and LT.
Until the high of the day was formed - NiftyIT was also supporting it. And at 11.15 NiftyIT started reversing whereas banknifty which was starting to fall reversed. The contra move in NiftyIT and BankNifty was like a script from a tamil movie (perfectly musical). The final effect was Nifty50 was able to hold its ground.
At around 11.30, I was not able to agree with the technicals and took a smaller position - bought 19600 PE @ 10.5. Now I have 2 opposite positions of long and short on Nifty50 carried forward to the expiry tomorrow. Most likely the PE position will expire worthless or I may have to convert it into a ratio spread.
The negation of the short-term bearish trend is visible + the island formation due to the gap up. If we get a mega gap down tomorrow, i.e. a quick fall below the 19650 levels - I will be more inclined to ride on the bear wave and consider today’s price action as a fake.
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Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Nifty50 went up 147pts ~ 0.75% from the prev. close enough to take out the 19800 levels where I had placed the protective stop. The main reason for the rally was the boost in RIL, ITC and LT.
Until the high of the day was formed - NiftyIT was also supporting it. And at 11.15 NiftyIT started reversing whereas banknifty which was starting to fall reversed. The contra move in NiftyIT and BankNifty was like a script from a tamil movie (perfectly musical). The final effect was Nifty50 was able to hold its ground.
At around 11.30, I was not able to agree with the technicals and took a smaller position - bought 19600 PE @ 10.5. Now I have 2 opposite positions of long and short on Nifty50 carried forward to the expiry tomorrow. Most likely the PE position will expire worthless or I may have to convert it into a ratio spread.
The negation of the short-term bearish trend is visible + the island formation due to the gap up. If we get a mega gap down tomorrow, i.e. a quick fall below the 19650 levels - I will be more inclined to ride on the bear wave and consider today’s price action as a fake.
...
Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
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