NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -04-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
16195.25 / 16290.25 / 16176.15 / 16258.8
Trading Range Low to High: 114 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 57 points
India VIX: 13. / --3.93%
FII DII activities: +2417 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty made yet another gap-up opening and yet another ATH close.
It faced the first resistance below 16300 so for tomorrow’s expiry, this level may act as the resistance as well.
Nifty movement appears choppy on the 5-minute chart as kept moving up and down after 1100h.
Tomorrow’s expiry may decide the next course of action for Nifty - above 16300 or yet another series of range-bound moves.
TOP 3 LOSERS
GRASIM - Earlier ATH level resistance was faced and the candle slipped below its 20 DMA and could barely close above the line. Interestingly, the 20, as well as 50 DMA lines, are moving very close to the Priceline.
TITAN - Profit booking at higher levels may have brought this down though the volume is low and the daily RSI is still bullish.
TATA MOTORS - After a gap-up open above the 20 DMA line, it failed to hold on to the selling pressure and closed below the line and below 300 as well. Wait and watch for now as even MARUTI was down today.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HDFC - The giant roared again and in a royal style. In 6 sessions, the scrip is up 11.5% and has single-handedly managed to lift Nifty from out of the non-Bank Nifty heavyweights. It is now approaching 2700 resistance and if it clears that, 2740-50 may be on the cards.
KOTAK BANK - Picking up from where it left yesterday, it kept the pressure on the Bank Nifty front along with the elder cousin HDFCBANK and by EOD, it managed to cross the 50 DMA line as well. There are a few resistances around this so we have to see if it can retain the good momentum with strong volume and march ahead.
ICICIBANK - Another Banking heavyweight that roared and helped Bank Nifty outperform. It also closed at a new ATH and crossed 700 as well for the first time with good volume.
POSITIVES
HDFC twins getting back in traction along with KOTAK BANK is a big plus as these are the counters that were dragging or not letting Nifty and Bank Nifty move higher.
Bank Nifty now has only 2-3 resistances to clear before hitting ATH. The volumes are good and so is the RSI on the daily chart. With RBI policy on 06-08, we have to see if it can close the week at a new ATH - though it is a very tall order considering that tomorrow is the expiry.
FIIs have bought in excess of 2500 Crores is a big positive so some more upside is in store.
NEGATIVES
IT and Auto scrips came under pressure and the heavyweights have ended in the negative.
RELIANCE has closed above 2100 but was choppy and somewhat reluctant to move up. It has the potential to be a spoilsport when all is well.
TRADING RANGE FOR 05-08-21
As of now, the indices are on the run so I prefer to wait for them to settle down for the week before working on any levels as from hereon till some time, heavyweights could decide which way and how far the indices could be move.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
For the first time OHLC for Nifty is above 16000 so it would now act as a good support and a psycho barrier for bears as and when they choose to bring the index down.
Bank Nifty clearly out-performed Nifty and it may now happen that Bank Nifty may scale its ATH and then only some new set of actions could take place.
Though HDFCBANK is not in the top gainers, it has managed to cross the 200 DMA in style and has met with a resistance at 20 DMA. The momentum is picking up and the volume is good so we have to see by when it manages to cross the line and then the 1500 mark which would also take it above the 50 DMA.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
4-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
16195.25 / 16290.25 / 16176.15 / 16258.8
Trading Range Low to High: 114 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 57 points
India VIX: 13. / --3.93%
FII DII activities: +2417 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty made yet another gap-up opening and yet another ATH close.
It faced the first resistance below 16300 so for tomorrow’s expiry, this level may act as the resistance as well.
Nifty movement appears choppy on the 5-minute chart as kept moving up and down after 1100h.
Tomorrow’s expiry may decide the next course of action for Nifty - above 16300 or yet another series of range-bound moves.
TOP 3 LOSERS
GRASIM - Earlier ATH level resistance was faced and the candle slipped below its 20 DMA and could barely close above the line. Interestingly, the 20, as well as 50 DMA lines, are moving very close to the Priceline.
TITAN - Profit booking at higher levels may have brought this down though the volume is low and the daily RSI is still bullish.
TATA MOTORS - After a gap-up open above the 20 DMA line, it failed to hold on to the selling pressure and closed below the line and below 300 as well. Wait and watch for now as even MARUTI was down today.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HDFC - The giant roared again and in a royal style. In 6 sessions, the scrip is up 11.5% and has single-handedly managed to lift Nifty from out of the non-Bank Nifty heavyweights. It is now approaching 2700 resistance and if it clears that, 2740-50 may be on the cards.
KOTAK BANK - Picking up from where it left yesterday, it kept the pressure on the Bank Nifty front along with the elder cousin HDFCBANK and by EOD, it managed to cross the 50 DMA line as well. There are a few resistances around this so we have to see if it can retain the good momentum with strong volume and march ahead.
ICICIBANK - Another Banking heavyweight that roared and helped Bank Nifty outperform. It also closed at a new ATH and crossed 700 as well for the first time with good volume.
POSITIVES
HDFC twins getting back in traction along with KOTAK BANK is a big plus as these are the counters that were dragging or not letting Nifty and Bank Nifty move higher.
Bank Nifty now has only 2-3 resistances to clear before hitting ATH. The volumes are good and so is the RSI on the daily chart. With RBI policy on 06-08, we have to see if it can close the week at a new ATH - though it is a very tall order considering that tomorrow is the expiry.
FIIs have bought in excess of 2500 Crores is a big positive so some more upside is in store.
NEGATIVES
IT and Auto scrips came under pressure and the heavyweights have ended in the negative.
RELIANCE has closed above 2100 but was choppy and somewhat reluctant to move up. It has the potential to be a spoilsport when all is well.
TRADING RANGE FOR 05-08-21
As of now, the indices are on the run so I prefer to wait for them to settle down for the week before working on any levels as from hereon till some time, heavyweights could decide which way and how far the indices could be move.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
For the first time OHLC for Nifty is above 16000 so it would now act as a good support and a psycho barrier for bears as and when they choose to bring the index down.
Bank Nifty clearly out-performed Nifty and it may now happen that Bank Nifty may scale its ATH and then only some new set of actions could take place.
Though HDFCBANK is not in the top gainers, it has managed to cross the 200 DMA in style and has met with a resistance at 20 DMA. The momentum is picking up and the volume is good so we have to see by when it manages to cross the line and then the 1500 mark which would also take it above the 50 DMA.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
4-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.