I'll use my monthly view post to take weekly analysis forward
There are interesting things to observe.
1. NIFTY has crossed previous intermediate high of 9889.05 of April last week. This makes it in firmly uptrend.
2. NIFTY is in uptrend on daily and weekly trend.
3. It is now visible to us that April was first leg of retracement and now second leg of retracement is in action.
4. Second leg of retracement is much more vigorous and has great quality of momentum. That is standard deviation of movement is less. One can see it is sticking to 44 degree line very nicely.
5. VIX is no longer above 30. This means traders are not uncertain about returns.
6. 10380-10600 is the possible resistance zone overhead. This zone is now just 250 points away.
7. As breakout of previous high is now confirmed, I take support level as 9824.05. The next support is 9600. This zone should not get violated in the current up swing if my assumptions are correct about the current rally.
8. It is very difficult to see what NIFTY will do daily but, I will continue to assume the 44 degree line as mean line of this movement.
9. NIFTY gained around 6% last two weeks. It is great speed at which this rally is rising. FII are net buyers in the market from May 26.
Here are my few "lines in sand" or trade plan for the coming week.
Things I am very sure of (~80%)
1. NIFTY to stay above 9700.
2. There will be resistance in 10400-10600.
3. NIFTY will form some candle with shadows on weekly frame. Like Doji / Hammer / Shooting star.
Things I am somewhat believing (~60%)
1. The current week's high will not be turning point or swing high.
2. 10700 is the upper end of the range of this week.
3. This upswing likely to continue at least till June 18.
Possible trades of very low risk.These are just ideas.
1. Going short using 10700 CALLs on sudden rises in early part of the week.
2. Creating 10600/10800 spreads (1x) and 9700/9600 spreads (2x~ next expiry)
3. Adding to 9700/9600 spreads on 2 day - 3 day consolidations.
4. Creating above high of the candle spread for next expiry.
Lets see how it goes. Now since VIX is cooling off, Intraday time frames will be harder to trade, especially 15 mins and 30 mins. Hence I'll mostly work on 2-5 trading session holding periods.
There are interesting things to observe.
1. NIFTY has crossed previous intermediate high of 9889.05 of April last week. This makes it in firmly uptrend.
2. NIFTY is in uptrend on daily and weekly trend.
3. It is now visible to us that April was first leg of retracement and now second leg of retracement is in action.
4. Second leg of retracement is much more vigorous and has great quality of momentum. That is standard deviation of movement is less. One can see it is sticking to 44 degree line very nicely.
5. VIX is no longer above 30. This means traders are not uncertain about returns.
6. 10380-10600 is the possible resistance zone overhead. This zone is now just 250 points away.
7. As breakout of previous high is now confirmed, I take support level as 9824.05. The next support is 9600. This zone should not get violated in the current up swing if my assumptions are correct about the current rally.
8. It is very difficult to see what NIFTY will do daily but, I will continue to assume the 44 degree line as mean line of this movement.
9. NIFTY gained around 6% last two weeks. It is great speed at which this rally is rising. FII are net buyers in the market from May 26.
Here are my few "lines in sand" or trade plan for the coming week.
Things I am very sure of (~80%)
1. NIFTY to stay above 9700.
2. There will be resistance in 10400-10600.
3. NIFTY will form some candle with shadows on weekly frame. Like Doji / Hammer / Shooting star.
Things I am somewhat believing (~60%)
1. The current week's high will not be turning point or swing high.
2. 10700 is the upper end of the range of this week.
3. This upswing likely to continue at least till June 18.
Possible trades of very low risk.These are just ideas.
1. Going short using 10700 CALLs on sudden rises in early part of the week.
2. Creating 10600/10800 spreads (1x) and 9700/9600 spreads (2x~ next expiry)
3. Adding to 9700/9600 spreads on 2 day - 3 day consolidations.
4. Creating above high of the candle spread for next expiry.
Lets see how it goes. Now since VIX is cooling off, Intraday time frames will be harder to trade, especially 15 mins and 30 mins. Hence I'll mostly work on 2-5 trading session holding periods.
