HOW GOOD ARE STAGGERED INVESTMENTS?
BACKGROUND
We all know the catchy word “SIP” which stands for Systematic Investment Plan. This may well be the most frequently used word in the Mutual Fund business and for savings as well as investments in general. And there is nothing wrong about it as a large retail investor base would not be able to invest in various avenues of investment in a lump sum manner unless they receive a bumper or out of the ordinary windfall gains.
INTENT
The intent of this post is to introduce the readers to a variant of the SIP which I recently experimented with in the months of Nov - Dec 2021. As mentioned in the earlier para, I received an out of the ordinary large amount in Nov 2021 and I was exploring the avenues for placing it such that I do not risk more and yet am able to get a modest return. The aim was to protect the capital and not earn index beating returns.
WHAT DID I DO
During the course of my weekly analysis, I analyze the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty scrips in particular using monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes and also several other scrips that form part of my watchlist. While doing so, I realized that there were several scrips that were at a good distance from their swing high which in many cases were the ATH levels when Nifty had hit 18604. The retracements were very significant so I thought why not make small investments in some of the scrips that I had identified.
At that time, I also decided to experiment with staggered or phase-wise but not SIP type of investments in these shares. Beginning 8-11-21, I started the process of such investments and between then and now, I have made 6 such investments. I ensured that I did not blindly add to the losers but had a basis in my mind for the positional trades.
During Nov 2021, Nifty made a low of 16782 and during Dec 2021, Nifty made a low of 16410. On 5-1-22, at the time of writing this post, Nifty is at 17837. This is a good 1427 points above the Dec 21 lows and is now up 8.7% which is a great ROI in 2 months. However, I just reviewed the status of these investments and they have at an aggregate level gone up by 6.36%.
The highest ROI so far is in Mirza Intl @ 68.88%.
The lowest ROI so far is in Tata Consumer @ -10.83%.
CONCLUSION
Obviously, I have no issues with the highest ROI scrip. Neither do I have an issue with the lowest ROI scrip as I have not added to the losing scrip even at lower levels as I did not want to increase the exposure.
My expectations from these unexpected tranches of investments are not much so I am quite happy to receive a 6% gain as of now. I have not beaten the Nifty ETF but that was never the objective.
Many of the scrips where I have invested in the “staggered basket” are those where I would not have ordinarily invested as my universe of investible scrips is limited. So this has helped me know the unknowns as well and that scrip has given the highest ROI!
I am still sitting on some funds out of this lump sum so I can add to the position at any available opportunity even though the indices are at much higher level than what they were in the previous months.
I can move the entire amount out of equity and place them in a Debt Fund and bring it back in when the market / scrips are at attractive levels. This is the approach that I would prefer the most though I am undecided on the course of action for now.
My live experiment with the “staggered” form of investing in my view has been a good one so far and I am satisfied with the outcome. In fact, it is one of the ways to spread the risk and learn to identify good scrips at attractive price levels using technical and or fundamental analysis since the view is positional to long term.
I hope the above helps you know how I prefer to trade the markets and keep exploring the opportunities available in the market to make incremental returns. This post has been shared for educational and informational purposes only.
I welcome your thoughts and insights in case you have also experimented with such/similar way of trading/investing.
Happy Trading/Investing,
Umesh
5-1-22
Not SEBI Regd.
BACKGROUND
We all know the catchy word “SIP” which stands for Systematic Investment Plan. This may well be the most frequently used word in the Mutual Fund business and for savings as well as investments in general. And there is nothing wrong about it as a large retail investor base would not be able to invest in various avenues of investment in a lump sum manner unless they receive a bumper or out of the ordinary windfall gains.
INTENT
The intent of this post is to introduce the readers to a variant of the SIP which I recently experimented with in the months of Nov - Dec 2021. As mentioned in the earlier para, I received an out of the ordinary large amount in Nov 2021 and I was exploring the avenues for placing it such that I do not risk more and yet am able to get a modest return. The aim was to protect the capital and not earn index beating returns.
WHAT DID I DO
During the course of my weekly analysis, I analyze the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty scrips in particular using monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes and also several other scrips that form part of my watchlist. While doing so, I realized that there were several scrips that were at a good distance from their swing high which in many cases were the ATH levels when Nifty had hit 18604. The retracements were very significant so I thought why not make small investments in some of the scrips that I had identified.
At that time, I also decided to experiment with staggered or phase-wise but not SIP type of investments in these shares. Beginning 8-11-21, I started the process of such investments and between then and now, I have made 6 such investments. I ensured that I did not blindly add to the losers but had a basis in my mind for the positional trades.
During Nov 2021, Nifty made a low of 16782 and during Dec 2021, Nifty made a low of 16410. On 5-1-22, at the time of writing this post, Nifty is at 17837. This is a good 1427 points above the Dec 21 lows and is now up 8.7% which is a great ROI in 2 months. However, I just reviewed the status of these investments and they have at an aggregate level gone up by 6.36%.
The highest ROI so far is in Mirza Intl @ 68.88%.
The lowest ROI so far is in Tata Consumer @ -10.83%.
CONCLUSION
Obviously, I have no issues with the highest ROI scrip. Neither do I have an issue with the lowest ROI scrip as I have not added to the losing scrip even at lower levels as I did not want to increase the exposure.
My expectations from these unexpected tranches of investments are not much so I am quite happy to receive a 6% gain as of now. I have not beaten the Nifty ETF but that was never the objective.
Many of the scrips where I have invested in the “staggered basket” are those where I would not have ordinarily invested as my universe of investible scrips is limited. So this has helped me know the unknowns as well and that scrip has given the highest ROI!
I am still sitting on some funds out of this lump sum so I can add to the position at any available opportunity even though the indices are at much higher level than what they were in the previous months.
I can move the entire amount out of equity and place them in a Debt Fund and bring it back in when the market / scrips are at attractive levels. This is the approach that I would prefer the most though I am undecided on the course of action for now.
My live experiment with the “staggered” form of investing in my view has been a good one so far and I am satisfied with the outcome. In fact, it is one of the ways to spread the risk and learn to identify good scrips at attractive price levels using technical and or fundamental analysis since the view is positional to long term.
I hope the above helps you know how I prefer to trade the markets and keep exploring the opportunities available in the market to make incremental returns. This post has been shared for educational and informational purposes only.
I welcome your thoughts and insights in case you have also experimented with such/similar way of trading/investing.
Happy Trading/Investing,
Umesh
5-1-22
Not SEBI Regd.
