PenAndPencil

NIFTY NOV Fourth Week

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
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4
And I was wrong again. I was so wrong that tried to introspect. I thought that maybe the covid vaccine news trumped all analysis and market sprung. But then correct technical analysis should be able to front-run the fundamental news. Not the other way round. I checked online and seems that a lot of people got it wrong. But then that also does not rectify my analysis. I looked further. I think there is something wrong in my wave counts. Especially at the daily level. So I am not updating the long term starting this week till I figure out what is wrong. Maybe the next month price movement will tell me what is wrong. I am pretty satisfied with the short term analysis though.

Short Term: In the short term, It seems to me that the third wave has reached its culmination. The first leg of the fourth wave also seems to be have been done for. And this leg looks like a 5-wave leg. So this is a zig-zag . Which means that the third and final leg of wave iv can go as low as 12515- 12606.

How will I trade this?: We lost around Rs . 600 in puts that we could not exercise. I again recommend that we buy puts on Monday when the market opens. Strike price of Market Open. Exercising Put option at 12515, i.e. profit of Rs . 24,825 at the option price of around Rs . 300-500.

As always. I can be right. I have been wrong in the past few weeks. I am always learning. Please trade at your own risk.

Comments

So you suggest market might not go up from this point? in short-run, that is till expiry?
Reply
PenAndPencil AdityaIIML
@AdityaIIML Yes. To me it looks like that. Monday will tell us the truth :-D
+1 Reply
AdityaIIML AdityaIIML
:P interestingly closed higher?
Reply
PenAndPencil AdityaIIML
@AdityaIIML, haha... you are always one trade away from humility. And from glory.
Reply
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