NIFTY fall & probability observation
1) On Aug 5th, 2024 - Nifty's low (23,893.70).
2) On Nov 12th, 2024 - Nifty broke Aug 5th low and fell (-2.64%).
3) On Nov 21st, 2024 - Nifty's low (23,263.15).
4) On Jan 13th, 2025 - Nifty broke Nov 21st low and fell (-2.10%).
5) On Jan 27th, 2025 - Nifty's low (23,786.90).
As per the above observations of NIFTY chart data, Every time when nifty broke the previous low It fell an average of (-2%).
> The fall % difference between the (Aug 5th, 2024 to Nov 12th, 2024) is (-2.64%) - (-2.10) = 0.54%.
> Observing, Assuming and Applying this % difference data with the Jan 27th, 2025 low (23,786.90),
That is, (2.10% - 0.54%) = 1.56%
23,786.90 - 1.56% = 22,431.
-> FIB Retracement - Marking the Nifty's election day's (Jun 4th, 2024) low of 21,281.45 and Nifty's All Time High (Sep 27th, 2024) 26,277.35, The next level (0.786) of fib retracement comes around 22,350.
-> The above observation data collides with Fib Retracement.
Final Comment: If nifty breaks the level of (22,786.90), The next support would be 22,400 to 22,350. If it breaks further, Nifty may test the most major support of 21,800.
2) On Nov 12th, 2024 - Nifty broke Aug 5th low and fell (-2.64%).
3) On Nov 21st, 2024 - Nifty's low (23,263.15).
4) On Jan 13th, 2025 - Nifty broke Nov 21st low and fell (-2.10%).
5) On Jan 27th, 2025 - Nifty's low (23,786.90).
As per the above observations of NIFTY chart data, Every time when nifty broke the previous low It fell an average of (-2%).
> The fall % difference between the (Aug 5th, 2024 to Nov 12th, 2024) is (-2.64%) - (-2.10) = 0.54%.
> Observing, Assuming and Applying this % difference data with the Jan 27th, 2025 low (23,786.90),
That is, (2.10% - 0.54%) = 1.56%
23,786.90 - 1.56% = 22,431.
-> FIB Retracement - Marking the Nifty's election day's (Jun 4th, 2024) low of 21,281.45 and Nifty's All Time High (Sep 27th, 2024) 26,277.35, The next level (0.786) of fib retracement comes around 22,350.
-> The above observation data collides with Fib Retracement.
Final Comment: If nifty breaks the level of (22,786.90), The next support would be 22,400 to 22,350. If it breaks further, Nifty may test the most major support of 21,800.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.