Nifty: Back into Resistance Zone

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
500 9
We saw a strong bearish sell-off on Monday morning which soon turned into a slow and steady bullish mood. We hindered at the Gartley PRZ @ 10775-10785 (mentioned in last week's post) for two days before breakout.

I updated on Friday to beware of a failure that might occur above the downtrend line and it just did that. Bears took control and the potential 10775 support could not hold.

Plan for next week:

Normally there has always been an aggressive sell opportunity at BO failure (in technical analysis ), which should take the market back to 10620. But looking at market volatility it has become difficult to trade a directional play.
So its better to wait till further confirmation which could be below our strong structure-psychological support near 10700. A break below 10700 may open the doors for 10600. In this case 10520 and 10470 can not be ruled out.

On the other hand, will I buy if we continue above 10820? Yes, but I would be a passive buyer in this case with strict stops at hand. I have to be cautious because I know that any failure from this level may fetch sharp reaction.

To be an aggressive buyer I need a strong push above 10820, few green candles on this time frame. At that point I will plan to buy the pullbacks. On the upside 10880-10900; 11000; 11100 and 11160 would be the levels to watch out for.

Hope this analysis will help some traders in making better decisions in the coming days.
Keep liking , following and sharing.

Trade safe, stay healthy.

Jul 08
Comment: People say, market is ruthless. I say, people are ruthless with their trading habits. Last week, a new trader came with 35k in his account. He told broker that he will trade for 500 to 1k profit intraday. On very first day he bought 500 to 1000 shares, not just of one company but 3 companies. Broker guy warned him about trading quantity but who cares. On first day the new trader made 4k profit and thought it was his break through. Next day he did the same. By the eod, he booked 6k loss in one trade while carry forward a position over night. Next day he had to book loss in that one too and therefore he lost his entire capital.

Another trader lost more than 9 lakhs last week. Carried multiple lots in commodity segment. Couldn't pay 60k.

There are many such examples. People gotta learn before trading. Greed and fear have swallowed several trading accounts.
#Just sharing few thoughts#
Jul 08
Comment: Alright we opened above the resistance. Let's see if we can breach and sustain above today's high. That would be first confirmation for long trades.
Jul 09
Comment: So we sustained and closed above the day's morning high and also closed above the resistance line, that's a sign of strength.

Strategy would be too but the low and sell at specific targets.

I would take advantage of short rallies on the upside, until we close below the down trend line.
Enjoy the breakout.
Jul 10
Comment: Gap up and 50-60 point move later is typical for Nifty bull run. Seems it is flying for 11K. No matter how hard it flies, it won't leave the gaps unfilled. Till then enjoy the rally.
Make a plan, and trade your plan.
All the best.
"The Bull Trap" sounds like a title of a financial comedy movie ! I wonder who will be starring ?
Bravetotrade inderjeet05
@inderjeet05, Haha.. Such traps are very common in this financial comedy movie. Those who will wriggle out of them quickly, will be the stars.
Highest Ch in OI Seen at 10700PE 546,675 & Total OI(as of NOW) 3,568,350, Also Next Ch in OI Seen at 10800PE 462,450 & Total OI(as of NOW) 1,759,425
Though Ch in OI Seen at 10800CE also near to 10700PE, i.e. 350,475 & Total OI(as of NOW)3,766,050.

Noticeable thing is NIFTY Fut is Now at Premium, Compare to Last Week (week ended on 29/06/2018) 23 point Discount.

Think major PUT Writing at 10700PE as well as 10800PE.
@DSKF16, Interesting stats. Thanks for sharing.
Great Analysis @Bravetotrade At this point, need to watch support @10700 below which the fall would be utra-quick!
Bravetotrade Trivikram
@Trivikram, Thanks.
Sgx Nifty already at 830 if Monday it closes above 854 witness something bigger than 935 with ease in coming days
Bravetotrade pawan786.kick
@pawan786.kick, The stats u have been mentioning here points towards a breakout. Thanks for the information. I would still like to see Monday morning opening before developing any bias.
pawan786.kick Bravetotrade
@Bravetotrade, it went big brother :D
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