PenAndPencil

July Third Week

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
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4
The market opened last monday at the position where target price itself was. And then did not move much. So we would not have been able to get entry into the market. So let's study what happened in the market.

Long Term: The nagging worry that the present rally could just be a correction after March's sharp drop seems to be reducing as the market closed consistently higher than the 1.618 extension of wave 1. If that is indeed the case, the market could go as high as 12,000 levels in the long term.

Medium Term: Drilling down to the hourly chart, the market seems to have completed the wave iii of the third wave. If that is the case, after a correction (which we seem to be under presently), the market could go as high as 11,800 levels in the medium term.

Short Term: In the short term, from the 15 minute chart we can see that the zig-zag correction seems to be over. My hunch is that this correction is going to be complex. What that means is that I think that the recently completed zig-zag would be followed by another zig-zag . I think the correction would be complex because this is wave 4. Since Wave (ii) was simple (single zig-zag ) and shallow (23% correction), the wave (iv) is going to be deep and complex due to the principle of alternation. Further a complex correction could be a flat also. I think it would be a zig-zag because that would close the gap open that happened at the beginning of the week. All levels considered, I think the market would dip to around 10,500 levels in the short term before beginning its trudge up again.

So, how could this be traded? Set a buy at around 10,500 level and wait.

And disclaimer as always. I could be right. I could be wrong. I am always learning. Trade at your own risk.

Comments

good point. correction(zig-zag) is likely between 10626 to 10850.if not break out above 10840 on Monday/Tuesday, it may last till 23 july & market will shoot up above 11000+for july expiry.FII were bearish at the beginning of july with 64% short but now they are 62% long.
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@ckirtane, Thanks. Will track this.
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You are right!!!!
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@katstech, Thanks :)
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